The spread of automation technologies such as robots and artificial intelligence raises fears of high technological unemployment: in the future many people could lose their jobs due to the use of machines.
In one of our recent studies we tried to quantify the number of Italian workers at risk. The estimate takes into consideration the technical limits that prevent total automation: capabilities that, today, are possessed only by humans and cannot be transmitted to machines as they cannot be codified in a defined procedure. They involve perception and manipulation (the ability to navigate complex environments), creative intelligence (the ability to produce new and valuable ideas or artefacts), and social intelligence (the ability to respond intelligently and empathetically to a counterpart Human).
As a result, workers are protected from automation if they perform occupations in which these skills are very important, or which include activities such as managing interpersonal relationships, training and collaborating with other people. Conversely, workers could be replaced by machines in a decade or two if they have jobs that involve many tasks that can be automated, such as information exchange, sales and manual tasks.
Considering the distribution of Italian workers in professions more or less susceptible to automation, it emerges that 3-7 million people (equal to approximately 18-33 per cent of the workforce) could be at high risk of being replaced by machines in the coming two decades. Instead 5-6 million people (equal to 26-30 percent of the workforce) appear to be at very low risk of being replaced.
The share of workers at risk of being replaced is also high because the automation process in Italy is still in its initial stages. However, the estimates obtained give an idea of the number of jobs potentially at risk.
The number of workers that will actually be replaced by automation technologies will be fewer due to a number of factors. Among these are the preference of companies to employ people rather than machines, the creation of new jobs favored by technology and other factors of an institutional type, such as for example the rules of the labor market and the training system.
Even if, as a result of these factors, actual technological unemployment will be lower than estimated, it is still necessary to safeguard the workers who are and will be affected by automation through economic policy instruments, such as incentives to favor the creation of jobs and the training of workers.
Mariasole Bannò is an associate professor in economics and management at the University of Brescia.
Emilia Philippi is a PhD candidate in economics and management at the University of Trento.
Sandro Trent he is full professor of economics and management at the University of Trento.
M. Bannò, E. Filippi, S. Trento, Risks of job automation: an estimate for ItalyState and market (3/2021)