Severe storms and record heat pose serious risks for America’s Fourth of July holiday, so don’t be surprised if the forecast forces an alternate celebratory plan.
While the record heat could subside in the South, it is on the rise elsewhere. And the storm threat isn’t taking a vacation, as it remains active for much of this week after recent deadly storms across the country.
The forecast for July 4, region by region:
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast: threat of severe storms
July 4th: The overall threat steps down, but extends to the Northeast and includes New York City. The greatest threat of thunderstorms will be during the evening and evening hours, and while storms are always unpredictable, some could be quite impactful and the fireworks could be disrupted.
Some storms could be severe on July 4 through the afternoon and evening, with damaging winds, large hail, and one or two isolated tornadoes. Have a plan in case you need to seek refuge at a holiday celebration. Heat advisories are in effect from the northern coast of Florida to southern Virginia, where temperatures will reach a high of 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32.2 degrees Celsius). The heat index for these areas could reach a dangerous 43 degrees Celsius, so make sure you drink plenty of water and have a cool place to take a break from the heat outdoors.
Midwest and Plains: Severe storms and hottest temperatures of the year so far
The Midwest and Plains will also face a severe risk of Level 2 of 5 severe weather from damaging winds and large hail on July 4. Storms on July 4 will be more widespread.
The highest temperatures so far this year are expected today with heat indices reaching 90 degrees F (32.2 degrees C) and higher for parts of the Midwest. Those temperatures will drop once the cold front passes through the area on July 4.
Western US: No storm threat, but dangerous heat
Although the west of the country will avoid the threat of the storm, millions of people will not be able to escape the heat. High temperatures will dominate in California’s Central Valley and the desert southwest. The heat index could reach 120 degrees F (48 C) in the Colorado River Valley and as high as 125 F (51 C) in Death Valley, California.
The heat will subside on July 4 in the Southwest and increase in the Pacific Northwest. Several records could be broken, as high temperatures are forecast to reach triple digits Fahrenheit Tuesday in parts of Oregon and northern California.
Severe storms and abundant rains forecast for much of the week
Here is the cumulative amount of rain and other precipitation forecast for the next seven days.
7-day precipitation forecast, in inches.
Data last updated on July 3, 2023.
Source: National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center
Graphic: John Keefe, CNN
Severe storms and torrential rains will not stop after the holidays. On Wednesday, the threat will affect approximately 90 million people. The highest risk area will be in the Midwest and Southern Plains with a slight level 2 out of 5 risk for places like Chicago, Indianapolis, Denver, Kansas City, Missouri, and Tulsa, Oklahoma.
The Storm Prediction Center is also highlighting an area on the Plains on Thursday to watch for the threat of severe weather, but it’s too soon to know the details. look at the updates
Any of these storms will have the potential to produce torrential rains, so plan for flash flooding later in the week.