[The Epoch Times, March 26, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Xu Manyuan in Los Angeles reported) The follow-up issues of the crash of China Eastern Airlines 737 passenger plane MU5735 are still fermenting, and the price of air tickets on inland routes in China has plummeted. The drop is more than 80%, and the lowest one-way ticket to Shanghai and Xiamen is only 71 yuan.
According to mainland media reports, on March 23 (Wednesday), the search and rescue team found one of the black boxes on the plane, but the appearance was severely damaged; a recording file of the air traffic control and nearby crews before the crash of China Eastern Airlines constantly calling the crashed plane was exposed. There was no response from the crashed flight.
Sky, who has been flying since 2003 and graduated from a professional aviation university, holds the highest level of pilot certification – the Airline Transport Pilot License (ATPL). Sky said there were many doubts about the crash. He analyzed and eliminated the accident in terms of pilots, aircraft conditions, weather and other factors, and put forward five intriguing points about the accident.
Doubt 1: The plane had an accident in the stable stratosphere
Sky said that the crashed flight plummeted more than 8,000 meters from an altitude and almost lost control, which is very rare. But some factors can be ruled out: Because the plane was still cruising at high altitudes, it was unlikely to be affected by the weather or attacked by birds.
The airspace of civil aircraft is at an altitude of 8,000 meters to 12,000 meters, and the vertical crossing height of the routes is not less than 600 meters, all of which are to ensure the safer flight of the aircraft. In the low altitude of the troposphere, “turbulent currents” are clustered together, and in addition to weather disturbances such as storms, wind, thunder, and electricity, there are also dangers such as bird collisions and inhalation of engines. Civil aviation aircraft are relatively safe when flying in the high-altitude stratosphere. Most civil aviation accidents also occur within minutes of take-off or landing, and rarely are problems in the stratosphere in flight. This is the first point of confusion about the MU5735 flight accident.
The plane crashed at an altitude of 134 nautical miles (Nautical mile), less than the 100 nautical mile descent altitude typical of a Boeing 737-800NG. Sky thought it was suspicious that the plane had an accident before it descended, and in his own experience, this is the time when the crew is most likely to go to the toilet, or temporarily leave the driving position. Sky said: “During the descent time after 100 nautical miles, both pilots cannot leave their seats, and they must wear seat belts.” From this, it is inferred that the point of time when the MU5735 accident occurred is likely to be someone in the cockpit. Leave, even illegal situations where only one person remains.
According to Sky’s contact with the mainland captains, it is true that there is a crew member alone in the cockpit on the Chinese inland route. According to the pilot code, there must be two pilots in the cockpit of the MU5735. If the pilot leaves the cockpit, another crew member must enter the cockpit as a substitute to avoid accidents caused by leaving one person alone. There must be at least two people in the cockpit.
Doubt 2: The pilot did not contact the tower or issue an emergency code
Unless there is an explosion, a sudden disintegration, or a complete power outage and communications failure, the crew must have had time at cruise altitude to issue an emergency code, or at least communicate with the ground, Sky said. The crashed plane neither hung up the emergency code nor answered the ground call, which is very unreasonable. He said: “There was no message to tell the tower, no distress message, just say Mayday, Mayday, it doesn’t take a few seconds, but there is no distress signal at all, I don’t know what happened in the plane, which is very strange.”
From the process of the plane crash seen in the online video, the plane did not explode or disintegrate; in addition, the MU5735 is only 6.8 years old, which is a relatively new plane, and the Boeing 737-800NG is a relatively mature model. Aircraft models considered safer are less likely to break down. Sky said: “It can’t be said that it is impossible, but the probability is very low.” So he believes that the possibility of the disintegration of the plane can basically be ruled out. And, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), the weather was good at the time of the accident.
In addition, Sky said that even if the plane is completely powered off and the communication system is lost, the captain can still control the plane, because the control stick of the plane is an oil pressure system and can still be in control after the power is cut off. “It’s like a car that doesn’t have power and can still turn the steering wheel, it’s just very heavy,” he said. So there’s no situation where you can’t control the plane when you can push the stick.
Suppose again that the hydraulic system of MU5735 was abnormal, the power was cut off, and even all the equipment was out of order, and the situation that the plane crashed directly with the nose down in this flight safety accident would not have occurred. Sky said: “When the plane falls normally, it will still glide slightly. The nose of the plane is raised and the plane crashes downwards, which means that there is a push rod and the plane can be controlled.”
So why did neither pilot send a distress signal or try to communicate with the tower when the plane was under control? Sky speculates that the exclusion of the above-mentioned possibilities may be due to an accident inside the aircraft at the time, and that it was the two pilots who had an accident at the same time.
Doubt 3: The plane crashed vertically at high speed with the nose down
According to the video circulating on the Internet, the MU5735 almost fell vertically when it crashed, which puzzled many professionals. Sky said that the structure of the aircraft is to simulate the wings of a bird, so even if the power is lost, it is impossible to “fall upside down” with the nose vertically downward; the wings will rise slightly and the aircraft will be raised. According to the flight simulator demonstration, if the stabilizer at the tail of the aircraft is damaged, the aircraft will sway down, and the head will not fall directly.
Sky said that based on the currently visible crash images, the wing of MU5735 was still intact when it fell, so it can be assumed that there was a problem with the tail. Compared with the aircraft accidents that have occurred, even if the tail is damaged, it is unlikely that the head will fall directly.
So Sky speculates that the plane crashed with the nose down, and it is very likely that someone was constantly pushing the stick, or there was a heavy object pressing on the flight control stick.
Doubt 4: Senior co-pilot and young “flying second generation” captain
According to mainland media reports, the captain of MU5735, Yang Hongda, has 7 years of driving experience and is a “flying second generation”. Yang Hongda’s father is also a captain and once worked for China Eastern Airlines; according to public information, Zhang Zhengping, the co-pilot, has accumulated more than 30,000 hours of safe flight time and has piloted many different types of passenger aircraft.
There is also a safety officer Lu Kai in the plane. According to mainland media reports, Lu Kai is an old safety officer studying aviation and has more than 10 years of senior flying experience.
Sky said that from the flight time accumulated by the first officer Zhang Zhengping, he is at least a pilot with more than 30 years of experience. Generally speaking, pilots with such qualifications rarely serve as “co-pilots”. It is also an unusual phenomenon why the senior Zhang Zhengping is not the captain, but the “second-generation flying” Yang Hongda.
An insider who has worked for Continental Airlines for many years said that when mainland pilots are older or have certain positions, some people get “average” flying income. This is a saying in the industry, which means that you only need to fly a few hours per month to get the average monthly hourly fee (flight income) of the pilots of the same level of the company. To put it bluntly, it is a kind of care for the old pilot. The income of the pilot has nothing to do with the number of hours he actually flew. The main income of normal pilots is the “hourly fee”, which is calculated according to the flight hours, and the more you fly, the more you get, the less you fly. The insider said: “The old pilot is 59 years old, and he doesn’t want to worry too much. He can fly as a co-pilot and get some flying time, which will not affect his income, nor will it affect his ‘grandfather’ status. At the same time, he will also give opportunities to It’s actually normal for a young captain.” Moreover, Continental Airlines will also consider matching the young captain with a more experienced veteran pilot as a second-in-command to improve flight safety. Also understandable, not a problem on Continental Airlines.
Doubt 5: After a rapid fall, the height regains stability for a short time
At present, the driving of civil aviation aircraft often relies on the “automatic control” of computer equipment, because the computer is faster and more accurate than humans in determining the flight data of fuel consumption. Sky said: “The captain plays the role of monitoring, and the computer is flying the plane.” But the captain cannot rest or relax at all. He needs to stay awake to observe the instruments at all times, and he cannot leave his seat for more than the specified time.
Sky said that most flight accident cases (accident cases) are first used accidental exclusion to find the key points, and then check them one by one. According to his judgment, the fall of MU5735 is unlikely to be affected by weather or a bird attack, and the probability of air disintegration or aircraft failure is also very small. Therefore, we can only consider first, whether it is the pilot suicide driving.
As far as the flight data map shows, the height of MU5735’s rapid fall once stabilized for a short time, which means that after the rapid plunge of the aircraft, there was a sudden stabilization period of 10 to 20 seconds. If the pilot attempted suicide, there may be another pilot at that time. Try to save the plane. Sky speculates that if there is a hijacking in the cockpit or the captain commits a suicide crash, and the aircraft cruises out of the autopilot mode, the pilot must use a lot of effort to cause the aircraft to descend rapidly; in other words, the aircraft undershoot occurs. Afterwards, to rescue the aircraft, it is also difficult to pull the rod to raise the nose of the aircraft.
But what exactly happened in the cockpit? Why does the fall height return to a short-term stability, and can only wait to find the black box to decrypt. According to a mainland official notification on Thursday (Thursday), the first black box found has been sent to a decoding laboratory in Beijing, but the possibility of damage to the storage unit cannot be ruled out at present.
Sky said that the black box will automatically send a signal after the plane is hit, and it is easier to find it in common sense if you know the accident location and the search area is not large. He said: “The records of the black box involve huge interests, including Boeing, China Eastern Airlines, insurance companies and China’s overall navigation safety.” Therefore, whether the original data of the black box can be completely preserved and read is a matter of concern to Sky.
The “CCP” factor increases the difficulty of air accident investigation
Sky believes that most of the current news on the Internet is not true and lacks evidence. The truth of the air crash can only be waited for the results of the investigation, but with the way the CCP authorities deal with the problem, it is not easy to get to the bottom of the truth.
In recent years, the CCP authorities have tightened their “political ideology” requirements for mainland airlines, and many foreign and Hong Kong pilots have resigned. Sky believes that this may also be a hidden danger for mainland airlines. Sky said: “I am also of Chinese descent, but it must be said that Westerners have the opportunity and tradition to learn aircraft for a long time. The Chinese are smart but hard to catch up in a short period of time.” Although many mainland pilots were sent to Europe, America and Australia for training, they would not be able to catch up after their studies. Going back to China is different from flying in the United States as a child, or flying many civilian small planes. It cannot be denied that mainland pilots still have to communicate and learn from pilots in Europe and the United States.
As far as Sky knows, the mainland’s flight management is still very “Chinese Communist Party”. For example, international aviation flight procedures stipulate that there must be two pilots in the cockpit of the aircraft, but in the mainland there will be a pilot in the cockpit alone; the cockpit door of the aircraft cannot be easily opened and must have a password, or It can only be opened after careful inspection of the knockers, but these conventional procedures are not fully implemented in the mainland. This is a loophole in the flight security and one of the reasons why Sky is reluctant to work for mainland airlines.
According to statistics, up to 80% of aviation accidents can be attributed to human error. The most dangerous times for aircraft to fly include takeoffs and landings, as well as the time periods before and after these events. Pilot error is considered to account for 53% of aircraft accidents, followed by mechanical failure (21%) and weather conditions (11%).
According to the above statistical data exclusion analysis, Sky believes that the crash of China Eastern Airlines 737 passenger plane MU5735 may be caused by human factors. As for the pilot suicide or the hijacking incident, we can only wait for relevant investigations, but whether the CCP official can disclose these information transparently, Sky Take it with a grain of salt.
According to CCP state media, more than 50 insurance companies have launched emergency service plans for flight MU5735; at the same time, 21 insurance agencies have launched on-site investigations.
Sky said the issues involved in the crash were wide-ranging, including subsequent claims and changes to insurance coverage. He said: “This is not a single accident claim, but also involves the future insurance amount of all Boeing 737-800NG.” If the MU5735 is leased by China Eastern Airlines to the Boeing Company of the United States, it will involve the investigation of the American insurance company, and the problem will be more complex. ◇
Responsible editor: Fang Ping#