A gloomy picture. The Italian resident population is rapidly decreasing: from 59.6 million in early 2020 to 58 in 2030, to 54.1 million in 2050 up to 47.6 million in 2070. In short, 12 million fewer in half a century. Istat’s forecasts on the demographic future in Italy are no real surprise, but no less alarming. The ratio between young and old will be 1 to 3 in 2050 while the working age population will drop in 30 years from 63.8% to 53.3% of the total.
All this will be discharged on the territory: within 10 years 81% of municipalities will have suffered a decline in population, 87% in the case of rural areas. The immediate effect will be on families, who will have an ever lower average number of children. Fewer couples with children, therefore, and more couples without: by 2040 one in four families will be made up of a couple with children, more than one in five will have none.
2048, deaths double births
From the forecasts of the resident population (base 2020) of Istat, emblematic key numbers emerge: 50.7 years the average age of the population in 2050 (45.7 in 2020), in 2048 it could be the year in which deaths could double births (784 thousand against 391 thousand), and 10.3 million people destined to live alone in 2040 (8.6 in 2020).
The alarm had already been launched in October in the Sole 24 Ore by the president of Istat, Giancarlo Blangiardo, who was clear: “With the passage of time, the population loses its initial physiognomy: given the life expectancy at the birth of about 80 years, 400 thousand births a year (this year we will fall below this threshold, ed) are compatible with a population that in the long run stops at just over 30 million, not 59 as it is now “.
Let’s start with the population decline. Based on the “median” forecast scenario, Istat expects a decrease in the resident population over the next decade: from 59.6 million as of January 1, 2020 (basis point of the forecasts) to 58 million in 2030. In the medium term, the decrease in population would be more pronounced: from 58 million to 54.1 million between 2030 and 2050. In the long term, the consequences of the expected demographic dynamics on the total population become more important. Between 2050 and 2070, the population would decline by a further 6.5 million.