Carlos Jijon
Guayaquil, Ecuador
I think that somehow the Presidency of Guillermo Lasso It ended on Friday, June 2, shortly before 1:00 p.m., when he announced that he was declining his intention to be a candidate for re-election after having dissolved Congress and called for a cross death. He will be the third shortest-term popularly elected constitutional president since Jaime Roldos died that fateful May 24, 1981 and that Abdala Bucaram the Carnival of 1997 was overthrown.
Bucaram lasted six months. Roldós, less than two two years. Technically Lasso will have lasted around two and a half years. I judge that it is not hasty to analyze his legacy.
The most important thing the government that succeeds Lasso can do is continue its economic program and at least preserve its achievements. If the next President of the Republic can maintain the GDP growth of three points, with inflation of around 3%it would certainly be successful in a region, and in post-pandemic circumstances and in the midst of the devastating effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in which even Chile has seen its growth reduced to zero and in which inflation in Argentina is galloping above the 100%.
The Free Trade Agreement with China, if not dismantled by its successors, could be one of the most important economic milestones since dollarization and probably since the beginning of oil exports in the 1970s.
But perhaps the most important thing is that the fall in poverty by seven points (from 32 to 25%); the reduction of the deficit from five billion dollars to two thousand; The increase in non-oil exports has been achieved in an environment of unrestricted respect for freedoms, including freedom of expression, without persecuting anyone, and a spirit of transparency and honesty, barely splashed by the mud thrown from the sewers. of the opposition
The reality is that the economic situation of the majority is better now than two years ago when Lasso took power in the midst of the pandemic. He leaves government in the midst of an unprecedented wave of violence, which coincidentally broke out almost the week after he arrived.
It is clear at this point that the wave of violence is unleashed by drug trafficking. Already as a consequence of the fight between the cartels for control of the cocaine route from its entry through the northern border and its route to the main ports; or by the State’s own action, as a natural response to the brutal increase in seizures of drug shipments; or probably as part of an involvement of the cartels in the struggle for political power.
Because the truth is that as soon as he arrived in Carondelet, President Guillermo Lasso faced stark opposition from Correísmo, the Social Christian Party, CONAIE and drug trafficking. And it is not unreasonable to suggest that his early departure is largely caused by drug politics.
The fight was merciless. They tried to overthrow him four times, leaving a trail of hundreds of deaths, if we include the prison massacres, especially the one carried out in November 2021, one day after an ad hoc commission of the National Assembly called for the removal of the President. Lasso for having caused “a deep social upheaval.” He always confronted them within the framework of the law, respect for human rights, as has rarely been seen in the history of this Republic.
He made mistakes, it’s true. The main one, in my opinion, was not having decreed the death cross in March 2022, when there were still possibilities to fight for re-election. The second, always in my opinion, is not running for re-election after finally calling for a cross death, even when the polls did not give him a chance. The truth is that they never gave them to him since he began his political struggle, and that only his iron will got him as far as he got.
Now, alone in the face of fate, he has six months to govern without the majority opposition in the Assembly and without the pressure of an electoral campaign, which could allow him to enrich that legacy that we are now inventorying perhaps hastily. How much can you do in the scenario of a Constitutional Court politicized but not controlled by the opposition? It’s probably enough just to do the right thing.
Once a new tax reform has been sent, and a very important investment law, he can still decree a labor reform that closes the circle of the ambitious reform program with which he arrived at Carondelet two years ago. It does not matter if the next Assembly repeals it or not. It does not matter if the Constitutional Court, contrary to its role, denies it. What is correct must be done for the simple duty to be. That his dedication to the cause of democracy will finally bear fruit.