[The Epoch Times, July 22, 2022](The Epoch Times reporters Gu Qinger and Li Yun interviewed and reported) The CCP has taken extreme “zero” prevention and control measures against the epidemic, and the mainland’s economy has been hit hard. A few days ago, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said that the current focus is on stabilizing employment and prices, and the economic growth rate is acceptable. Experts believe that Li Keqiang’s words may be a shot in the arm, or indicate that this year’s economic growth target of 5.5% cannot be achieved.
On the evening of July 19, at the “World Economic Forum Global Entrepreneurs Video Special Dialogue” held in Beijing, Li Keqiang said about China’s economy that in the second quarter of this year, due to the impact of unexpected factors such as a new round of epidemics, the economy is under downward pressure. It suddenly increased, and the main indicators fell deeply in April.
Li Keqiang said that the most important thing at present is to stabilize employment and prices. It is acceptable for the economic growth rate to be higher or lower.
Regarding Li Keqiang’s remarks, Xie Tian, a professor at the Aiken School of Business at the University of South Carolina, told The Epoch Times on July 21 that the background of Li Keqiang’s recent remarks is that China’s economy is currently in a very severe situation. Unemployment is currently very high, and the CCP officially admits that the youth unemployment rate is close to 20%. The actual situation may be worse.
Taiwanese financial expert Huang Shicong said that the current unemployment rate in China is high. There are about 10.8 million students graduating this year, and only 20% of them have found jobs. What about the other 80%? In addition, because of the closure of the city, many people do not have jobs, which is a very big problem.
On July 15, data released by the Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China showed that in June, the unemployment rate of urban youth aged 16-24 hit a new high, reaching 19.3%.
On March 5 this year, Li Keqiang announced in his government work report that China’s economic growth target for 2022 was set at 5.5%. However, many economists believe that goal is almost impossible to achieve.
Huang Shicong said that Li Keqiang’s recent remarks may also be a vaccination, and this attitude may indicate that the CCP’s official economic growth target of 5.5% this year cannot be achieved. Therefore, the more important issues of unemployment and prices should be solved first, but to some extent, the economic situation this year is not very optimistic.
Xie Tian said that now Li Keqiang said that he would not consider the issue of GDP growth rate, but focused on employment and growth. In fact, the two complement each other. Now he just changed the wording. It now appears that unemployment is a more serious problem, and it is hard to say whether it will recover in the second half of this year.
On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China released data. According to preliminary calculations, the GDP in the first half of 2022 was 56,264.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% at constant prices. Among them, the GDP in the second quarter was 29,246.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. This growth rate was lower than market expectations.
Xie Tian said that China’s economic growth in the last quarter has not entered a recession according to the CCP’s figures, but the actual figures have entered a rather severe recession. As for the CCP’s public GDP growth rate figures, it has never been credible. These are actually figures fabricated by the CCP.
In any case, he said, it also reflects the trend of this economic slowdown, and the real economic growth rate is likely to be close to zero or negative. Now the CCP is obviously unable to achieve the 5.5% economic growth rate target, and this promise is about to fall through.
Chinese companies surveyed by the U.S. survey agency China Beige Book, which provides alternative economic indicators on the Chinese economy, said consumer activity and demand weakened due to the ongoing lockdown in the second quarter.
On July 19, Li Keqiang also stated that he would insist on not engaging in “flooding irrigation”, and would not introduce super-large stimulus measures for excessive growth targets.
Xie Tian said that China’s financial, real estate and debt problems are now experiencing huge crises. Whether it is the suspension of loans or supply, and the collective resistance and resistance of these people who buy houses, causing huge troubles in China’s economic structure and financial system, these will accelerate the downward trend of China’s economy.
He said that regardless of the CCP’s GDP growth target of 5.5% or the goal of controlling unemployment, it basically seems unlikely to be achieved.
Responsible editor: Lin Congwen#