[Epoch Times October 20, 2021]Hello everyone, and welcome to the “News Talk” on Wednesday (October 20). This is Lin Lan (host). Today’s guests are current affairs commentators Qin Peng and Professor Xie Tian.
Today’s focus:The global food price index has risen sharply, and the chain effect may be very large, and may even affect Xi Jinping’s political performance project (poverty alleviation); facing a potential food crisis, many countries are actively collecting and looting food, but the CCP’s “buy, buy, buy” “It may be unsustainable; in addition, the CCP will review the third “Historical Resolution”, which contains some rare expressions, indicating that the CCP may try to position Xi Jinping higher than Mao.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gC3WhF23DRo
[“Gray rhino” food crisis is approaching? Over 30% price increase]
Just as the world‘s eyes are attracted by soaring energy costs and chip shortages, another “gray rhino” with a huge impact is approaching us, and that is the food crisis.
According to the latest data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations on October 7, the FAO Food Price Index in September 2021 averaged 130.0 points, a year-on-year increase of 32.8%, the largest increase since 2011. The main reason is that the prices of most grains and vegetable oils have risen sharply, and the prices of dairy products and sugar have also risen a lot.
Moreover, this wave of growth may not be far from the end, as global energy prices and freight costs rise, and if the epidemic continues, food prices may rise further.
1. Professor Xie, what value index does the United Nations “Food Price Index” reflect? What is the relationship with the prices felt by consumers in various countries?
Professor Xie, the grains, vegetable oils, dairy products and sugars that have experienced the largest increase now are basically the upstream and midstream of the food industry chain, but may it soon affect the downstream?
[HowbigistheEngelcoefficientordominoeffect?】
Friends in many countries now feel that food prices are soaring and their wallets are shrinking. For some people, this may mean a certain decline in the quality of life; for others, the impact may be even greater.
For example, according to the “Consumer Financial Literacy Survey and Analysis Report” of the Central Bank of the Communist Party of China this year, more than half of the people in China in the past two years have been moonlight people without any deposits. If food prices rise by 40%, they may be unable to make ends meet. And this also means that the proportion of money spent on food in their consumption may increase a lot, that is, the so-called Engel coefficient will increase. The Engel coefficient is not only a measure of whether a family or a country is poor, but also affects whether people have money to consume, housing, use, and transportation other than food.
2. Qin Peng and Professor Xie, can you analyze what kind of chain effects will the substantial increase in food prices have on China? Will inflation also increase interest rates and affect credit and economic activities?
During Xi Jinping’s tenure, “poverty alleviation” was regarded as one of the “biggest achievements”. Let alone the truthfulness of the data, many people themselves have just realized food and clothing. If the price of food rises, this group of people may become poverty alleviators and return to poverty?
[Howlongwillthefoodcrisislast?】
3. Qin Peng, what factors have contributed to the current increase in food prices, which are short-term factors, and which will have a lasting impact?
[The CCP’s massive “buy, buy, buy” foreign exchange reserves diverge from the left to the right]
4. China’s food imports from January to August 2021 have exceeded the total of 2019, an increase of 34.8% over the same period in 2020, making China the world‘s largest food importer for several consecutive years.
Professor Xie, how big is China’s food gap? After the large-scale “buy, buy and buy” in the past few years, are there enough reserves? Are there enough foreign exchange reserves to import more bulk agricultural products?
5. Qin Peng, do you think the CCP has no way to deal with this situation?
[TheCCPwillreviewthethird”HistoricalResolution”topavethewayforXi’sre-election?】
According to a report by the Chinese Communist Party’s official Xinhua News Agency, Xi Jinping hosted a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee on October 18, and determined that the date of the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be from November 8th to 11th this year. At that time, the “Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on the Party’s Major Achievements and Historical Experience in a Century of Struggle” will be reviewed.
This is the third “Resolution on History” of the Chinese Communist Party in a century. The first two are the “Resolution on Certain Historical Issues of the Party” adopted by the 7th Plenary Session of the 6th Central Committee of the Mao Zedong era in 1945; and the 11th in 1981 under Deng Xiaoping. The Sixth Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China passed the “Resolution on Certain Historical Issues of the Party Since the Founding of the People’s Republic”.
The Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee coincides with the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and the highest level is facing a major change. Therefore, it has attracted much attention. Now, with the consideration of the third historical resolution, this meeting is more sensitive.
6. Professor Xie, what do you think is the intention of the Chinese Communist Party’s decision to review the third historical resolution at the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee?
The first two resolutions in the history of the CCP were about “several historical issues” of the CCP, denying the political line of the party in the past: Mao Zedong denied the “Wang Ming line” and Deng Xiaoping denied Mao’s line of the Cultural Revolution. They have been established within the party. The highest status of the two.
However, the third resolution, titled “The Party’s’Major Achievements in a Hundred Years of Struggle’ and’Historical Experience'”, seems to be much more positive than the previous two resolutions in terms of wording.
7. Qin Peng, what do you think caused this difference?
The content of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on the 18th shows the general direction of the third historical resolution. The meeting preached that under the leadership of Xi’s core, China’s party spirit, military spirit, and people’s spirit would be “unprecedentedly cohesive”, “international status is increasingly consolidated”, and it also provided “a more solid material foundation” for the so-called great rejuvenation, and so on.
However, the reality seen by the outside world is just the opposite.
For example, the meeting said that the spirit of the party and the army are united, but now the CCP is in a state of life and death; internationally, the anti-communist alliance of democratic countries is constantly appearing, and the CCP is unprecedentedly isolated; the country is facing power shortages, and the authorities are pursuing technology, education and training. , Real estate and other industries have been hit hard.
8. Professor Xie, does the CCP’s attempt to downplay reality have something to do with what Xi called the establishment of a “correct view of history” and “control of party history discourse”? What is the purpose of this?
We have seen that while trying to beautify itself, the Politburo meeting of the Communist Party of China also mentioned that the whole party must bear in mind that “born in sorrow, dies in happiness, always has a long-term view, and is prepared for danger in times of peace.”
9. Qin Peng, how can we interpret the “foresight” and danger mentioned here?
I also want to report a news to my friends. Due to program adjustments, starting from November 1st, the host of this station, Li Fuyao, will take over the host of the “News Talk” program, and I will host another program “Lin Lan Dialogue” “. I also hope that my friends will continue to support. Thank you for watching and goodbye.
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