«The postglobal world» in which we live today – chosen as the title for the annual Report of the Einaudi Center in Turin, produced in collaboration with Intesa San Paolo – «does not offer irrefutable interpretations, nor well-defined evolutions; uncertainty is increasingly replacing probability and measurable risk ». The volume, edited by Mario Deaglio professor emeritus of international economics at the University of Turin, makes use of the contributions of Giovanni B. Andornino, Giorgio Arfaras, Angela De Martiis, Giuseppina De Santis, Gabriele Guggiola, Paolo Migliavacca, Giuseppe Russo, Giorgio Vernoni . Published by the publisher Guerini, the book (pages 170, € 19.00) is also available in an e-book version.
Tuesday 25 October, 11 am, in the Intesa Sanpaolo conference room in piazza Belgioioso in Milan, the presentation (also in “live streaming”): after the opening of the works of the president of the Einaudi Center Beppe Facchetti and the president of Intesa Sanpaolo Gian Maria Gros-Pietro, Professor Deaglio is expected to speak, followed by a debate moderated by Sky Tg24 journalist Mariangela Pira. And there will also be space to comment on the birth of the Meloni government, just 48 hours after the “handover” with Draghi, who returned from the Brussels European Council of 20-21 October with the (albeit imperfect) agreement on the gas plan , together with the green light for other energy measures. “Thanks to the agreement, the cost of bills will soon drop,” said Draghi in his last press conference as president in office.
Draghi’s legacy and the first moves of the Meloni government
In 2022 the world has changed and, almost certainly, it will never go back to the way it used to be. The Einaudi Center Report identifies four “crises” (in the Greek sense of the term, which can be rendered in today’s Italian as a “decisive moment”, therefore not necessarily negative): the pandemic, not yet completed and which has brought about evolutions already in progress; the climatic-environmental emergency, which in the summer affected many areas of the planet; the geopolitical crisis, with a war that continues in the heart of the Old Continent; finally, the socio-economic crisis, partly triggered by technological innovation and complicated by the other three. Consequently, the world economy is losing its global character and reducing its growth capacities.
In this general framework, Italy can count on the European resources of the NRP, but this is not enough. The weight of our public debt weighs on the next financial maneuver, while new rate hikes are looming both in the ECB meeting on Thursday 27 October and in the Fed meeting on 1-2 November. “The all-time high of the construction industry, supported by far-reaching incentives – writes the Report – has triggered a recovery, which cannot be sustained in the long term”; to cope with the weakness of domestic demand, Italian companies have sought outlets abroad, “but the remarkable results of our exports have in reality little more than offset, in terms of GDP growth, the structural weakness of net investments”.
In 2022 Italy, also driven by tourism, will grow by 3.2% according to the autumn outlook of the IMF, while next year it will be in recession: -0.2 per cent, one decimal better than Germany (- 0.3%), as we and the Germans are the two worst countries in the euro area. If we want to add a simulation of “adverse scenario”, contained in the latest monthly bulletin of the Bank of Italy – we quote it here to exorcise it! – with a stop to Russian gas supplies, in 2023 we would have a drop in GDP of 1.5% and inflation of 9% for another year.