The Colombian foreign trade panorama faces significant obstacles at the beginning of 2024, marked by the persistence of inflation, high interest rates and geopolitical tensions at a global level. Experts and analysts project that the rebound in exports will only materialize in the second half of the year.
During the first eleven months of 2023, exports experienced a drastic drop greater than 13%, generating concern among unions and analysts. The continuity of this trend in the first months of 2024 seems inevitable, according to forecasts. Javier Díaz Molina, president of the National Association of Foreign Trade (Analdex), pointed out that high inflation and high interest rates have affected consumption, causing a decrease in acquisitions and affecting commerce in general.
Díaz Molina also highlighted that these adverse conditions were reflected both nationally and internationally. However, he sees a possible change in the second half of the year, anticipating an improvement as inflation decreases and central banks reduce interest rates, thus reactivating consumption.
Andrés Mauricio Castro, dean of Business at the Piloto University of Colombia, emphasized the conditions of deficit in the trade balance, the dependence on mineral-energy resources and the lack of diversification in the markets. He highlighted the importance of advance diversification throughout the year to achieve better performance in foreign trade.
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The expert warned about dependence on products considered commodities, such as coffee, whose prices are beyond the country’s control. He also stressed the influence of the projection of a exchange rate between $3,900 and $4,000 per dollar in the performance of the sector.
Despite these challenges, Mario de La Puente, director of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the Universidad del Norte, expressed optimism regarding the gradual recovery of external demand. He predicts that, with reduced inflation and a more expansive monetary policy globally, Colombian exports could exceed US$50 billion in 2024.
Nevertheless, Difficulties persist for Colombian importers. Analdex has drawn attention to the technological problems of the National Tax and Customs Directorate (Dian), which for two months has experienced unavailability, intermittency and errors in its computer services. These drawbacks represent an additional challenge for foreign trade operators in the country.
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