“Come and find the votes in Parliament if you are able …”. The chorus of praise that rises on Draghi’s work for what he has done to the government clashes with the resistance of those who, in the majority, believe that the Colle should not be the next residence of the Prime Minister. Under the track there are reactions in some cases even angry with respect to the premier’s statements at the press conference at the end of the year. Yesterday the secretary dem Letta, the president of M5s Conte and the head of Health, Speranza, took stock. Tomorrow it will be the turn of the center-right. With Berlusconi who, despite not being an official candidate for the Quirinale, goes straight on his way. And it does not intend for now to “baptize” Draghi for the Colle. Indeed, to FI MEPs he says: “This government represents a very successful experience and we would like it to continue, without jolts, until the end of the legislature”, that is, until 2023.
In short, the former prime minister – according to Italian parliamentary sources – does not take any step back and expects for the moment the support of the other political forces of the alliance. The question “how do you say no to Draghi?” – question that also circulates within Forza Italia – at the moment it is not asked. Why – as a parliamentary source of the League observes – will be seen in the case below. Because the official position for now is to keep the ranks compact and then, eventually, to negotiate.
But the game remains long. Meanwhile, the first and essential knot: numbers. “I do not think it is the right move to rely on the Chamber,” hisses a prominent member of the Democratic Party, a party that has moved more behind the scenes to try to “protect” the possible candidacy of the Prime Minister. The second obstacle is the post-vote. Because the head of the executive has made it clear that, in the event of his transfer to the Quirinale, he would not dissolve the Chambers in advance and would guarantee stability.
But even here we are divided between those who fear we will go to early voting in any case and those who, on the contrary, do not exclude that a government without Dragons can at least reach the end of 2022 to bring home the new budget law and, perhaps, even a new electoral system. But each plan will have to be evaluated calmly, before the first ten days of January the picture will hardly be clearer.
Certainly the premier has ‘put’ every decision back to Parliament and stressed that he feels “a grandfather” at the service of the institutions. The key phrase: “We have made Italy one of the most vaccinated countries in the world, we have delivered the NRP and we have created the conditions for the work to continue, regardless of who will be in government.” But one of the passages that is most emphasized in the Palaces is linked to that scenario “to be feared” hypothesized by the prime minister, that is to say the need to avoid an opposition in the majority on the choice of the Head of State. “Is it conceivable that a majority will split on the election of the President of the Republic and be recomposed afterwards?”, The rhetorical question of the Prime Minister. Also because it takes “a large majority for government action to continue”. Phrase that some interpret as a sort of ‘threat’ of his eventual disengagement. In reality, another reading that is provided by a ‘big’ of the majority is that Draghi wanted to send a message to the political forces that support him rather than ‘self-nominate’. A year of electoral campaign would risk wearing down the executive and, in any case, Draghi or non Draghi al Colle must find an agreement not to split up. In the presence of a tug-of-war over the figure of the Colle – the warning – the framework of national unity would be shattered. What his function would be at the Quirinale is soon said, “the best example as a guide to interpreting the role of the head of state” is Sergio Mattarella, defined as “the model”. But one of the many reasons why Draghi’s candidacy is ‘resisted’ is linked precisely to the power he would assume in the event of a ‘move’ from the seat of government.
However, the Colle game changed after the premier’s press conference. In the meantime, it will be necessary to understand how the former red-yellow front will move. Because the orientation – explain parliamentary sources – was to contrast the figure of Berlusconi with a woman candidate. But the Democratic Party, while stressing the need to create the necessary conditions for a possible change of scheme, does not close the door at all to the former ECB number one. It is true that – as a senior dem executive points out – “there is a pandemic” and we will have to wait, but it is above all in the 5-star Movement that the votes for Draghi would be lacking. In the M5s groups, malaise mounts due to the immobility of the pentastellated leaders on the Colle dossier because – this is the thesis of a ‘big’ – it risks going in advance on the positions of the Democratic Party.
“The M5s deems it necessary to continue government action, in order not to leave citizens and institutions in conditions of ‘vacatio’, without a government, which would entail serious problems for everyone”, the unofficial reflection M5s. But the problems are also in the center-right. “There is concern about any changes that could create instability”, leaked sources from the League. With a government without Draghi, the Via Bellerio party could fall apart. The comment filtered by FI is clear: “The government’s action must continue in the coming months with the necessary continuity and the same energy.”
‘Tranchant’ the reaction of Meloni: “From the premier two and a half hours of self-celebration: he says between the lines that his objectives have been achieved but this is not evident from any evidence”. Fdi will remain stationary for now, eventually on Draghi it will go in the last resort, observes a senator from the Brothers of Italy. In the words of a ‘big’ of the center-right, if Draghi wants to go to the Quirinale he will have to provide guarantees that he has not given at the moment. From who will go to Palazzo Chigi to when they will go to vote. And the Knight would ‘marry’ the Draghi ‘card’ only as a ‘last chance’. That is, if all the conditions were met and he was somehow ‘forced’ to turn in this direction. Which he has no intention of doing at the moment.