A region in the balance, another at risk and some that see the parameters worsening. As early as Monday 16, Sardinia could pass into the yellow zone, a change that Sicily would face, if the numbers continue to go badly, the following week. Although the increase in cases is decreasing, the effects of positive tampon growth are seen on both incidence and hospitalization data. And 90% of those who end up in intensive care who are not vaccinated.
Sardinia is the region most in the balance due to the number of new infections on the rise in this summer of resumption of tourism. As of yesterday, the weekly incidence was just over 144 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. We have to wait two days to understand if the threshold of 150 cases will be reached, which triggers the color change. The control room will in fact evaluate the data for the week between Friday 6 and tomorrow.
Then there are other Regions that risk leaving the white zone before the end of the month, which for example involves the return of the obligation to wear a mask even outdoors. Among these, there is also Sicily which, however, for now will remain in the scenario with fewer restrictions. In his case, the problem is the occupation of the beds. Yesterday Agenas, the National Health Agency of the Regions, reported an occupation of intensive care at 7% and of non-critical area beds at 14%. The two limits beyond which the yellow zone is triggered (if the incidence is between 50 and 150) are respectively 10 and 15%. Also Sardinia, among other things, has already passed one, namely that of intensive care, 11% occupied, but on the ordinary wards it is 7: therefore, for now it does not risk due to the commitment of the hospitals, but precisely especially for the incidence.
The Delta variant has shown, in Italy and other countries, to be very contagious but also possible to stem with vaccines. For this reason, despite the number of cases that has been growing since the end of June, hospitals are on average not very busy. At the national level, employment is 4% in intensive care and 5% in ordinary wards, although in 7 Regions there has been growth in recent days. They end up in resuscitation mostly unvaccinated. “The primary doctors tell us that almost all of their Covid patients, 90%, are not vaccinated, and this confirms that the vaccine is the most effective weapon at our disposal to counter the pandemic and its worst effects”, explains Giovanni Better, president of Fiaso, the Federation that gathers health and hospital companies.
Also based on the data of the week ended yesterday, there are other Regions that risk, not immediately but in any case by the end of August, to change color, unless the trend of increasing cases is reversed (as some experts among the other think possible). Said of Sardinia, above 100 there are also Tuscany (125), Sicily itself (118) and Umbria (103).
If, on the other hand, we look at the occupation of hospital beds, the national situation is rather good. With regard to intensive care, the regions with the highest data, in addition to Sicily, are Lazio and Liguria, again with 7%. For non-critical area beds, the region closest to the 15% threshold is Calabria with 11%. As mentioned, however, both values must be exceeded to be moved to a scenario other than white.
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