2022 will be the first year of the endemic, that of coexistence with the virus. Unless new dangerous variants, unlikely but not impossible, the infections will be under control with reduced and constant numbers until the summer and then with possible peaks in autumn and winter, but with a limited number of seriously ill patients in hospital, in particular the elderly. and fragile. This scenario could be repeated for years.
To defend us will not be the fourth dose but the first annual booster of the vaccine, most likely a new preparation “calibrated” on the latest variant or even effective against all variants, which could become mandatory for the elderly (perhaps already over 50) and frail .
The vaccine will have to be accompanied by a solid protocol of home care, the one that tragically lacked in the first waves that claimed so many victims, with drugs to be used at home when the symptoms first appeared: among all the new antivirals against Covid already on the market and to be taken also in the pharmacy near the house on prescription from the family doctor, in addition to monoclonals (for hospital infusion) for the most vulnerable patients.
Because one thing is certain: Covid will stay with us for a long time. What is still not certain is what its impact will be in the coming years, especially at peak times: a lot will depend on which variant we are faced with. Unknowns that, for example, the British government has tried to dispel with a document developed by academics and published in recent days which includes 4 scenarios: the first two (“best scenario” and “optimistic”) foresee slight waves or similar to the current one of Omicron, the last two (“pessimistic” and “worst” scenarios) foresee the arrival of new dangerous variants with severe effects for the elderly and frail, up to affecting the entire population.
“The virus is becoming endemic, you can see it from the curve that goes down rapidly. Thanks to the high vaccination rates there is a selective pressure that pushes the virus to infect less and less even if it will remain present as if it were a continuous background noise. Seeing the four scenarios developed by the British, the most probable at the moment are the first two, the most optimistic ones », warns Massimo Ciccozzi epidemiologist of the Biomedical Campus of Rome.