After a great Wednesday in Parliament – prime minister in rally mode, standing ovation from the right of the hemicycle, dispassionate statements “President we miss you here among these benches” – a Friday with the tail between the legs and fleeing from Europe building by Bruxelles. Things didn’t go as they should and as had been guaranteed. Nothing went through: not the new one Pact on immigration and asylum; not there third installment of 19 billion of the Pnrr which, as the people in charge of the dossier whispered in their ears, was supposed to arrive “just during the Council meeting”. For heaven’s sake: the European Councils always have very long procedures and reaction times. There are almost always waited which should be disappointed because getting 27 countries to agree is never easy. And yet this time the security almost clashes with the arrogance of the eve (“great success for the immigration dossier, Europe is finally with us” Prime Minister Meloni repeated in the last three weeks) and nothing in terms of concrete results from the Council conclusions. It is astonishing and jarring as in the face of facts that say that the immigration issue is not even mentioned in the final conclusions (a sort of official meeting report); that the issue still remains in President Michel’s document (“we have to go ahead even in 25, we still have to mediate, it’s too important”); that there is no trace of the third installment of the Pnrr (19 billion) which more than one source in Palazzo Chigi had indicated was arriving in the days of the summit to give even more prominence to the happy event after months of waiting. Here in the face of these are the facts, the official government statement yesterday said that “the summit was a success, many steps forward, and all in the direction indicated by Italy”.
Above all, it is striking that Meloni does not criticize himself compared to the fact that the betrayal of Italy took place at the hands of our Polish and Hungarian allied friends. Retaliation is always a tragedy. Yet, in the end, the prime minister understands and justifies the “traitors”: “I will never be the one to criticize those who defend their national interests”. Which precisely conflict with ours and, first of all, with the universal principles of solidarity and equity.
Eight hours of comparison
The key moment of the whole European Council (which started on Friday at 3 pm and finished on Friday at 2 pm) took place on the eighth floor of the Europa Building. In the hall of the Italian delegation, Giorgia Meloni, Mateusz Morawiecki and Viktor Orban were seated on cream-colored sofas. The first two for the entire meeting (eight hours into the night) kept the EU leaders in check by opposing the
conclusions on the new Pact on migration and asylum (by Ursula von dr Leyen and Swedish presidency) already signed in Luxembourg on 8 June. Even then Poland and Hungary said no.
Let’s go back to the sofas and Friday morning. Meloni had recently been invested with the arduous role of mediator with the two sovereign leaders. “An uphill mission” Council sources observed in the meantime. And the mediation, in fact, failed. The chapter on migration was thus removed from the text of the conclusions and replaced with a statement by the President of the EU Council Charles Michel. That he clearly reiterated the need to finalize the
pact, but “taking note” of the veto of Warsaw and Budapest. To be even clearer: Hungary and Poland have not blocked the Pact for migration and asylum which remains approved. They blocked the conclusions of the EU summit because they did not agree on the merits of the measures and because their request to affirm that the Pact can only be approved unanimously was not accepted. An unacceptable imposition. It would mean paralysis and the end of Europe.
Double push
Meloni’s attempt came on the basis of a double
push. That of the premier herself, who wanted to convince Cesarini Morawiecki and Orban in the area. And that of Michel and the other leaders, who had focused on Meloni’s political closeness above all to the Polish premier. In the end, however, the premier acquitted the two counterparts: “I am never disappointed by those who defend the interests of their nations.
The question that the Poles and Hungarians pose is not a far-fetched one, they are the two countries that are dealing more with Ukrainian refugees, they do it with EU resources that are not sufficient” Meloni explained at the end of the summit. Partial analysis. The Pact is divided into two parts: rules for asylum (times and methods for permits); entry rules. On this specific point, there is an obligation to redistribute at least 30,000 migrants a year in the various countries on the basis of GDP and the number of the population. Countries that do not accept this criterion will have to pay 20,000 for each rejected migrant. Money that in a special European fund whose mission is to invest in African countries where flows originate to limit departures. In justifying their no, Orban and Morawiescky pointed to the French case. Macron had to leave the summit early on Friday to return to Paris where civil war is raging over the young French-Arab man shot dead by a police officer (already in prison). “You understand why we don’t want migrants – the two presidents joked – because we don’t want to end up like France. Integration is impossible”.
In Meloni’s Version of the summit, what happened gives even more reason and confirmation to Italy which has always focused on contrasting primary movements, that is, arrivals in Europe. “The only true mediation is the external dimension of migration, everyone can agree on that”.
The EU summit has therefore run aground on the pact on migrants. A pact for which, sarcastically, Morawiecki wished “good luck” to his ally with whom, he explained, “we agreed not to agree”. It will be really difficult to get past the trench of Polonia e
Hungary for the EU in a context in which the Commission continues to hold the Pnrr funds to be paid to the two States. “They will not be released until they comply with the reforms and respect for rights” underlined Ursula von der Leyen on Friday as soon as she arrived. Then there was everything else.
Great maneuvers for the 2024 European Championships
At this summit and in those to come, we will have to keep in mind that we are already in the electoral campaign for next June’s European elections. Elections in which Meloni’s Conservatives plan to move the political majority in Brussels and Strasbourg to the right in a rose koalition between the EPP and the Conservatives. Outside the extremes. Off the left. Poland is about to hold elections at the end of the year, which
they will be crucial for the whole of Europe. To challenge Morawiecki will be Donald Tusk, whose party militates in the EPP. Not surprisingly, Popolari sources have warned the Italian premier: she is careful not to get “stuck” between sovereign allies (Hungary and Poland) who “obstruct progress on migrants”. Theme on which, while defending them, Italy has nevertheless sided with the EU, on the opposite side of Warsaw and Budapest. And who knows if a possible defeat of Morawiecki will not lead to the gradual estrangement between FdI and the Poles of Pis, both today in the ECR. For now, the alliance holds. On Wednesday Meloni will be in Warsaw for the Conservative party seminar.
Tunisia
The dossier had been included, on an Italian initiative, not in the migration chapter but in the “external relations” one. Move
intelligent, which presupposed a stop to the migrant dossier. In fact, the partnership with Tunisia has not been canceled but approved. And the “Italian model” – implementing relations with Africa and with transit countries to stop the flows – has been taken as a model to follow. A good news. Which brought 12 billion more to the European fund destined for this operation which will obviously take a long time. There is no trace in the Tunisia dossier of the fact that “third countries should-can take back foreigners who cannot stay in Europe and whom Europe has expelled” and that was another point of the Pact for immigration and asylum. On this the Tunisian president Saied does not intend. “I will never be a new Türkiye,” he repeated. Meanwhile, however, now through the EU some money will arrive in the empty coffers of Tunis, still waiting for the two billion from the Monetary Fund, and we will see if this will help in any way.
“There is unanimous consensus on our work in the EU” remarked Meloni. Which now awaits the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between Brussels and Tunusi. Ironically, it will be signed by a Hungarian commissioner for the EU: Olivier Varhelyi.
Economic files
The economy was not at the heart of this Council’s agenda. But Mes, Pnrr, Stability Pact were the stone guests of the whole summit. “I am very satisfied with Rome’s leading role in all parts of the conclusions of the European Council, including the one in which reference is made to the flexibility of the Cohesion funds and the Pnrr, which will allow us to better spend around 300
billion”. The premier then denied any shadow on the economic dossiers. On the ok to the third installment “there is no aggravation”. And yet once again, despite the conversation between Minister Fitto and Commissioner Gentiloni (whom the Prime Minister had attacked on Thursday in the courtroom “because he doesn’t control it better”) the third installment remains frozen, there are even hypotheses of “partial” payments (hypothesis rejected by the government). On the fourth installment (16 billion) linked to the objectives to be achieved by yesterday (the first semester) it is official that some objectives have not been achieved (certainly nursery schools and hydrogen columns). She then she who knows what could ever happen. It should be remembered that the 35 billion of the Pnrr relating to the year 2023 are calculated in the state budgets. If they don’t arrive, if we don’t spend them, our GDP is destined to stop.
On Mes Meloni said that the problem “was not raised to me, evidently there is not the attention here that there is in the Italian debate”. False: the Mes has been in all the talks, on the sidelines and not. The truth is that the EU and Italy are negotiating on both dossiers. And the tones used on Thursday in the Chamber, repeating that “we use the Mes to get more”, can serve to warm the hearts of one’s electoral base but certainly not to help the negotiation.