The great Italian rebound | The paper

The first signal came from the OECD, with Italian growth for 2021 placed a little above the European average. These are estimates that this time are worth more than usual. Because the Italian restart, the younger sister of the German one, has a solid manufacturing trait, and that was already clearly understood by the trends visible since this summer, to which are added, however, some really interesting peculiarities. The industry is doing well, despite everything. In Europe, industrial production was still contracting in February, but Italy and Germany were exceptions. While the Italian one is the best composite SME index (i.e. including all types of economic activity) in Europe, with the surveys made periodically by Ihs Markit among the purchasing managers of companies (Purchasing Manager Index) from which a strongly expansive orientation is drawn. Indications already visible for months, but increasingly consolidated and significant. But the strengths are, as we said, also others, and less obvious than the consistency of the national manufacturing system. To find them, it is enough to overturn what have always been weak points of the Italian economy until now, but which, precisely because of the enormous stress test of the pandemic and the collective European effort to restart, are turning into opportunities for growth. We are talking about the market and labor rules, the digitization of businesses and the public administration, the strengthening of services and especially those with high added value, internal consumption, and the capitalization of families.