This Monday the race to the White House begins with the first contest of the Republican presidential nomination process that begins the long primary season of the United States: caucus de Iowa.
Caucuses can take place in meeting places such as school gymnasiums, community centers, or churches. There, Republicans will give speeches in favor of their preferred candidates. Participants will address partisan issues and express their preference for a presidential candidate to represent the party in the November elections. Furthermore, these caucuses mark the beginning of a process that extends for months to select delegates who will participate in the national conventions of each party from which the presidential candidate will finally emerge. The Republican one will be from July 15 to 18 in Milwaukee and the Democratic one will be from August 19 to 22 in Chicago.
So much Republicans and Democrats Iowa caucuses to be held this Monday January 15. However, only the Republican caucus will have an immediate and binding impact on the presidential race. The Democratic caucuses, unlike previous years, will focus on administrative matters and the election of delegates to national conventions. The Democratic preference for the presidential candidate will be expressed through a mail-in voting process, the results of which will be known in March.
Both parties, Republican and Democrat, will hold caucuses in Iowa on January 15 (REUTERS/Alyssa Pointer)
For Democrats, the 2024 caucuses will not influence the presidential race. In contrast, Republicans will compete for delegates and the right to shine in the Iowa caucuses. Although Iowa represents a small fraction of Republican delegates nationally, caucus results can disproportionately boost winners and affect the trajectory of candidates in the race.
After Iowa, New Hampshire holds its primary election on January 23followed by those of South Carolina on February 3 for the Democrats. Nevada performs its primaries February 6th.
The calendar continues with additional competitions, including Republican caucuses in Nevada and the US Virgin Islands on February 8and primaries in South Carolina on February 24.
In principle, this year’s primaries are presented as the least exciting in decades and seem to delay something that appears inevitable according to all previous surveys: that the two men who will face each other for the presidency in November will be, as in 2020 , Donald Trump y Joe Biden.
The importance of the Iowa caucuses
Jimmy Carter, then Democratic presidential candidate, speaks to a crowd of supporters at the Van Ryswyk farm in Des Moines, Iowa, on August 24, 1976. The once-every-four-years Iowa caucuses became a entrenched part of American politics, catapulting the candidacy of little-known former peanut farmer Carter to the White House (AP Photo, file)
The Iowa caucuses have played a significant role in American politics for more than 50 years and have been the driving force behind several presidential candidates, offering a key platform to gain visibility and credibility in the United States presidential elections.
In 1976, the Iowa caucuses catapulted former Georgia governor, Jimmy Carter, who was relatively unknown nationally at the time. His victory in Iowa provided him with the boost needed to win the Democratic nomination and eventually become president.
In 2008, the Iowa caucuses played a crucial role in the Democratic presidential race by giving Illinois senator, Barack Obamahis first major victory over Hillary Clinton. This victory contributed significantly to Obama’s perceived viability as a presidential candidate and helped him secure the Democratic nomination and subsequently the presidency.
This year, Iowa will once again be the scene of the first Republican contest. Instead, President Biden has instructed the Democratic National Committee to reorganize the primary calendar, establishing that they begin in South Carolina, traditionally after Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.
Who are the Democratic candidates?
Biden is expected to win the Democratic nomination, facing token opposition from Minnesota Democratic Rep. Dean Phillipsand the progressive writer Marianne Williamson.
Joe Biden
At 81 years old, Joe Biden, the oldest president in the country’s history, seeks to convince voters of his fitness for another four years in office, facing concerns about his age and low approval ratings. His allies claim that he is the only Democratic candidate capable of defeating Trump.
Marianne Williamson
The writer and self-help guru Marianne Williamson, 71, has launched his second presidential bid on a platform of “justice and love.” Although he ran as a Democrat in 2020, he dropped out of the race before votes were cast. He will now be on the New Hampshire primary ballot.
Dean Phillips
Minnesota’s little-known congressman Dean Phillips54, announced his challenge to Biden in October, arguing that the president cannot win another term.
Who are the Republican candidates?
Six Republican hopefuls are vying for their party’s presidential nomination for the 2024 general election, after former governor Chris Christie of New Jersey suspended his campaign a few days before the first votes.
Donald Trump
Facing charges in four separate criminal cases, Donald Trump, 77, has managed to use these circumstances – unprecedented for a former American president – to increase his popularity among Republicans and raise funds. He has dismissed the accusations as a political witch hunt to hinder his quest for a second four-year term. He has promised retaliation against his supposed enemies and has adopted increasingly belligerent language, which has catapulted him as the Republican favorite with 61% in the latest poll.Reuters/Ipsos.
Nikki Haley
At 51 years old, Nikki Haleyformer governor of South Carolina and Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, highlights her relative youth compared to Biden and Trump, as well as her origins as daughter of Indian immigrants. Haley has earned a reputation in the Republican Party as a strong conservative with the ability to credibly address issues of gender and race. According to the Reuters/Ipsos poll, she has garnered 12% support among Republicans.
Vivek Ramaswamy
At 38 years old, Vivek Ramaswamy, a former biotech investor and executive, has founded a company in 2022 to pressure companies to abandon environmental, social and governance initiatives. Considered as a outsider politician, has generated rumors as a possible alternative to Trump.
Asa Hutchinson
The former governor of Arkansas, Asa Hutchinson, 73, launched his bid for the White House in April. Although he has touted his experience leading a deeply conservative state, he only qualified for the first Republican debate.
Ron DeSantis
The governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, 45, is positioned to the right of Trump on key issues such as abortion. However, his campaign has faced difficulty gaining ground, ranking 50 percentage points behind the former president in the December Reuters/Ipsos poll, with 11% support.
Ryan Binkley
Ryan Binkley He is president of a mergers and acquisitions company and pastor of a church in Texas. He had never before held or run for elected office, according to The New York Times.
Who are the independent and third party candidates?
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 69, is running as an independent after initially challenging Biden for the Democratic nomination. Although he is trailing in the polls, a Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests he could garner more support from Biden supporters than Trump in the presidential election.
Cornel West
The political activist, philosopher and academic Cornel West, 70, launched a third-party presidential bid, initially as a Green Party candidate and then as an independent in October. He has promised to end poverty and guarantee housing.
Jill Stein
The doctor Jill Stein73, has reiterated his candidacy for the Green Party in 2016. Accusing Democrats of betraying promises, he seeks to represent workers, young people and the environment.
The Trump mystery and the role of the Supreme Court in the 2024 elections
The Supreme Court of the United States will have a decisive role in this campaign because it will be the last instance that will decide whether former President Trump can be excluded from the election ballot due to his actions to overturn his 2020 election loss.
After Iowa, New Hampshire holds its first primary in the country on January 23 (REUTERS/Gretchen Ertl)
The court agreed to take up a Colorado case stemming from Trump’s role in the events that culminated in the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol and arguments will be held in early February.
The meaning and scope of a provision of the 14th Amendment what prohibits anyone from holding public office who “has taken part in any insurrection.””. The amendment was adopted in 1868, after the Civil War. It has been so little used that the country’s highest court has not had the opportunity to interpret it previously.
Trump last Monday asked a state judge to halt ballot access proceedings in Maine to give the U.S. Supreme Court time to rule on the case in Colorado.