The government has rectified the speculation and hype of pre-sale houses. In early January, it passed the amendment of the “Average of Land Title Regulations.” According to statistics, the resale volume of pre-sale houses in Taiwan in March this year decreased by 6.6% compared with December last year, and the overall pre-sale volume decreased by about 1,500. Ye Lingqi, general manager of Yongqing Real Estate Group, explained that after the amendment of the “Equal Land Rights Act” was passed, Set the tone of “not going back to the past”, and the tide of getting off pre-sale houses has shown signs of easing. If we further observe the changes in pre-sale and re-sale volume in the seven metropolitan areas, Taipei, New Taipei, and Taoyuan all saw declines within 5%, and Kaohsiung saw the largest decline, reaching 12.3%.
Ye Lingqi explained that due to global monetary tightening, downward revision of the economic outlook, and great uncertainty in cross-strait relations, it is estimated that the transaction volume in the first quarter of 2023 will be between 61,000 and 64,000 buildings, a decrease of about 24% to 28% compared to the same period in 2022. Taking a closer look at the performance of the housing market transaction volume in the first quarter of each year, since 1999, there have been five records in which the volume has shrunk by more than 20%. Tsunami, an annual decrease of 24.0%, the impact of the 2012 presidential election due to the luxury tax on the road and the tight election campaign, the transaction volume decreased by 38.9% compared with the same period of the previous year, and the real estate integration on the road in 2016 caused the transaction volume to decrease by 32.7%. Then there is a significant reduction in volume this year, and the annual decline may hit the fourth largest in history.
Looking at the actual transaction volume performance, the first quarter of this year is estimated to be 61,000 to 64,000 units, second only to 43,182 units in 2016 and 59,715 units in 2017, which may be the third lowest volume in history, and the buying momentum has dropped significantly.
Ye Lingqi pointed out that people generally expect housing prices to fall, but observing that housing prices in 2023Q1 have changed from falling to consolidating. Under the bearish situation, people’s attitude towards buying houses has turned to wait and see, which will affect the transaction volume of the housing market. It is estimated that the transaction volume of the housing market in the first half of 2023 will be about About 132,000 to 140,000 buildings, an annual decrease of 18% to 23% compared with the same period in 2022. In addition, the housing market policy will be on the road, speculation will exit the market, the housing market will return to the fundamentals of supply and demand, and the housing market transaction volume has shrunk. However, rising inflation keeps prices in a consolidation stage. It is expected that “volume reduction and price consolidation” will be the keynote of the housing market in the first half of 2023.
(Wang Moyun in the Middle Ages)
further reading
Will house prices fall?Look at this year’s housing market trends from 6 major directions
329 Real Estate Market Explosion A Large Number of Builders Face the Government?the key is here
Mortgage 2 prefix housing market fear of falling prices
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