TO TWO weeks before the general elections in Spain, polls show that the right would win in Spain with the sum of the votes of the Popular Party (PP) and VOX, forcing these two parties to agree on a coalition government marked by their differences in economics, civil and political liberties, as well as their vision of Europe and Latin America. This does not mean that they share a common objective that unites them: to put an end to “sanchismo” or to remove the socialist Pedro Sánchez from the Moncloa Palace.
The average made by Electrocracia -a kind of Real Clear Politics-, of the more than twenty surveys in Spain, gives 34.6% of the votes for the PP, followed by the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) with 28.4% and the parties almost tied outsiders that have emerged strongly in Spanish politics, VOX (13%) and Sumar (12.7%).
In seats, these percentages mean that the PP would have approximately 152 seats, ten and a little more than those obtained by Pedro Sánchez in 2019, who seeks to repeat as head of Government. For the conservative party, these numbers would allow it to gain a significant advantage of 43 seats over the PSOE or eight percentage points. However, they are not enough to achieve an absolute majority -176 seats- that allows him to govern alone, without having to agree with VOX, an uncomfortable partner.
The PP is betting that this trend begins to change in the following days and reflects its enormous victory in the regional and municipal elections on May 28, in which it won electoral strongholds of the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) such as Cantabria, Andalusia and la Rioja, wearing almost the entire map of Spain in blue, with victory in 17 of the 22 autonomous communities and six of the eight most important capital cities in the country.
Although the PP sold the regional elections as a kind of primaries against Sánchez, in these general elections, in which 350 deputies are elected to make up Parliament, Spaniards usually vote for interests that are diametrically different from those of the regional and municipal ones. This can lead to the favorite PP lowering its level of voting or, on the contrary, obtaining an absolute majority.
Genoa’s wish
In Calle Génova, the headquarters of the PP, in Madrid, they hope that the historic results of 1996 will be repeated, when the party headed by José María Aznar achieved an absolute majority and led Spain alone, in the first four years of the right in power. after the transition to democracy, which are also remembered for the full entry of Spain into the European Union, full economic growth and the frontal fight against the separatist group from the Basque Country, Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA).
From this time some things are repeated, with their differences of actors and moments. ETA no longer exists as a terrorist organization, but it continues to be one of the main issues in Spanish politics after the decisions of EH Bildu, a political party of exetarras, to include in its lists 44 convicted by the courts for crimes associated with the time in who belonged to this group. Stirring up the differences, this party has agreed with the PSOE in Navarra and the Basque Country.
In response toAlberto Núñez Feijoo, top leader of the PP and potential head of government, has focused his campaign on attacking ETA and other groups that are trying, says the conservative leader, to break the rule of law. He refers not only to the Basque ex-terrorists, but also to the Catalan separatists in whom he has seen, as in Bildu, an attempt to divide Spain and deepen regional differences in a country that has taken centuries to achieve a model of national unity. which, in some episodes, seems difficult to maintain.
While Sánchez has emphasized the concept of several Spains, in an attempt that has not led to the de-escalation of the independence movement in Catalonia, Núñez Feijoo has demanded that the constitutional order and national unity be respected. The unionist vision of the leader of the PP already opens a huge question about what the relations of the Executive would be, in case it wins, with the Catalan independence movement and the Basques.
Apart from the permanent territorial differences in Spain, the PP has also highlighted the poor results of the socialist model of the PSOE and Podemos, a government partner, who defend the idea that “Spain is going like a motorcycle”. According to The debate, there are one million more unemployed than those registered in the official accounts and of the total number of unemployed, 57% are over 45 years of age. Added to these numbers is the rising cost of living, affecting household consumption, which has dropped considerably in the last two months.
Counteroffensive
On Thursday Sánchez inaugurated the rotating presidency of Spain in the European Union (EU) with calm and enthusiasm. In Moncloa, the seat of government, several factors generate optimism so that in the sprint electoral of these two weeks the PSOE rebounds and achieves with Sumar – a new party of former members of Podemos – and nationalist forces an absolute majority that allows it to remain in government.
According to Publictraditional medium of the Spanish left, the television round of Sánchez in the programs prime time of the last week was a success. Not only did he manage to avoid the electoral crisis of his party after the municipal elections, but he also focused his speech on defending his economic and social achievements, and exacerbating fear about a possible government in which an ultra-right party participates which, says the head of Government, has not “forgotten Franco”.
“Citizens already know what these pacts mean and that Feijóo is in the hands of the extreme right,” say Sánchez’s advisers, according to Public. The socialist leader believes that VOX and his entry into the government break the democratic limits in the face of the ultra parties known in Europe as “sanitary cordons”.
On the left they insist that Podemos, a radical party, is not as extremist as VOX and limits its discourse to democratic rules. Many citizens do not see the difference between one party and the other.
For this Monday is scheduled by Atresmedia the expected and only debate between Núñez Feijoo and Sánchez, in which the head of government has a wide advantage in front of the cameras, but carries the weight of an electoral bump and a regular economic performance, as well as political pacts that, as indicated by the polls, they cost him the head of government.
Spain, moreover, does not seem oblivious to the conservative wave that has taken Europe. In Italy, Finland, Sweden and Greece, the right wing has won elections in the last year and has long ruled many other European countries (Poland, Hungary and the Netherlands). Apparently, the Spanish would follow this trend.