The UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) declared on Tuesday the arrival of El Niño, a climate event related to the warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, and stressed the importance of taking necessary measures to prepare for the extreme weather conditions that has rigged
“WMO’s declaration of El Niño is the signal for governments around the world to mobilize preparations to limit the impact on our health, our ecosystems and our economies,” said the organization’s Secretary General, Petteri Taalas. . “Early warnings and anticipatory action for extreme weather events associated with this major climate event are vital to saving lives and livelihoods,” he warned.
The last time El Niño conditions developed was in 2016, declared the hottest year on record. The phenomenon was described by meteorologists as a “double whammy”, since it added to the increasing global warming caused by human activity.
In this context, extreme weather conditions, new temperature records and “more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean” are now also forecast, Taalas warned.
According to WMO estimates, there is a 90% probability that the phenomenon will continue through the second half of 2023, at least, with moderate intensity.
Normally, El Niño occurs every two to seven years, and its effect usually lasts between nine and twelve months. In parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia, the event is often associated with increased precipitation. In contrast, in Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia, Central America, and northern South America, the phenomenon can cause severe droughts.
In anticipation of the 2023 phenomenon, a WMO report published in May predicted that there is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will surpass the 2016 record and become the warmest ever recorded.
According to the same report, the scientists estimated at a 66% probability that between 2023 and 2027 the average annual global near-surface temperature will be temporarily more than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels for at least a year. anus.
“This does not mean that in the next five years we will exceed the level of 1.5ºC specified in the Paris Agreement. […] However, it is another wake-up call, or early warning, that we are still not heading in the right direction to limit warming within the targets set in Paris in 2015,” said WMO Director of Climate Services Chris Hewitt. . with RT