The war in Ukraine increasingly affects the whole West – Pierre Haski

There is a double escalation underway in Ukraine. On the one hand, the one we have been witnessing for a few days, with the war crimes committed against civilians near Kiev, in the siege of Mariupol or with the bombing of the Kramatorsk station. This process risks worsening with the announced offensive of the Russian forces in Donbass.

Then there is the politico-military one that transforms this war into a confrontation between a reconstituted Western bloc and Russia, whose goal is to change the international order by modifying the balance of power that emerged at the end of the cold war, now thirty ‘ Years ago.

On both sides, without reaching the direct confrontation that no one would ever want, the conflict turns into a battle for power that goes beyond the fate of the Donbass and even Ukraine. The initial hesitations give way to direct commitments, with the risk of not being able to control its evolution.

Weapons and political promises
The signs of escalation are numerous. On the Western front, the hesitation over the possibility of supplying heavy weapons to Ukraine are disappearing one after another. On April 9, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Kiev, where he promised to deliver weapons that had previously been taboo, starting with anti-ship missiles that will be used to defend the port of Odessa.

NATO country Slovakia has supplied Ukraine with its Russian-made S-300 anti-aircraft missile system, while the United States has shipped Patriot missile batteries. The rationale for this transfer is that it is difficult to train Ukrainians in the use of new weapons in the middle of the war. The S-300s are not the no-fly zone requested by Kiev, but at least they reinforce the Ukrainian defense capability.

On the political level, the commitment rose to a level with the visit to Kiev, shortly before that of Boris Johnson, the President of the European Commission Ursula Von der Leyen and the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell. The two leaders announced an accelerated examination of Ukraine’s candidacy for EU membership, after President Zelensky’s first request was met with embarrassed silence.

On the Russian front, Vladimir Putin initially tried to dissuade Westerners by agitating the nuclear threat, but it didn’t work. Western arms deliveries contributed to the failure of the Russian army’s maneuver around Kiev.

In any case, Moscow is not retreating. In Washington, Paris or Brussels there is no talk of a “war” against Russia, but the air is different in the Kremlin. One of the authoritative voices of the Russian regime, Sergej Karaganov, a former consultant to the Kremlin and one of the proponents of the “Putin doctrine” on Russian-speaking minorities living on the border with Russia, gave an interview to the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera in which he declares: “We are at war with the West. The European security order is illegitimate ”. Karaganov has threatened to attack NATO countries if they continue to arm Ukraine.

Westerners have no intention of going to war with Russia, but in fact they already are, at least indirectly. Vladimir Putin has launched the challenge and has dragged the entire Russian society into a battle against the Western enemy, causing an escalation that seems less and less controllable.

(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)