NATO “cannot be a military alliance à la carte, it cannot be a military alliance that works depending on the mood of the president of the United States,” Josep Borrell, head of foreign policy of the European Union (EU), told reporters in Brussels, in response to Donald Trump’s recent comments about NATO.
At a campaign rally in South Carolina on Saturday, Trump had told the crowd that, as president, he had warned NATO allies that he would “encourage” Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” to countries it don’t “pay” [sus] bills”. His comments sparked concern across Europe, alarming European NATO members already agitated by the possibility of a second Donald Trump presidency.
“Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the United States, and puts American and European soldiers at greater risk,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg responded in a statement. on Sunday.
NATO faces Trump’s threats
As president, Trump had threatened many times to withdraw from NATO. He warned that he would make Europeans pay for U.S. protection, and repeatedly cast doubt on the U.S. commitment to the core alliance, a principle enshrined in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which states that ” An armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America will be considered an attack against all of them.
The fact that he is doing this again – attacking “the soul of the alliance”, as some in NATO see it, this time during an election campaign – has been described by diplomats as “worrying”. After all, many allies fear that a possible second presidency could feature a Trump unhinged and much bolder than during his first term.
“The last time Trump was in office there was the biggest upheaval in relations between Europe and the United States since the inception of the European Union,” Alison Woodward, a research associate at the Institute of European Studies in Brussels, told DW.
«It was really a very dramatic change. And that’s why I think leaders are now preparing for what could happen if Donald Trump is re-elected,” he added. During Trump’s first presidency, the United States imposed punitive tariffs on trade with EU members, significantly cooling transatlantic relations.
A critical moment for NATO
Trump’s recent comments come at a very critical time for the alliance, as some allies are openly warning of a possible escalation of the Russian war against Ukraine, while a new US aid package for Kiev is stalled in Congress, and Europe struggles to increase its weapons production.
Trump’s comments “increase the likelihood that Russia will test NATO, especially if Donald Trump wins the election, but perhaps not only then,” Michal Baranowski, managing director of the German Marshall Fund East, a think tank, told DW. American experts.
“The comments made Europe less secure,” he says, adding that Trump “created in the minds of many leaders, including on NATO’s eastern flank, the question of whether the United States will support all allies in the event of an attack on one of them”.
These concerns are echoed by diplomats in Brussels, who privately say Trump’s comments have already caused damage to the alliance. The biggest problem seems to be that his claims are very difficult to refute. Trump lashes out at NATO allies for “not paying his bill,” a misleading claim, because technically there is no bill to pay.
Are Trump’s comments a wake-up call?
Trump’s comment referred to the fact that a significant number of NATO member states still spend less than 2% of their GDP, a goal agreed at a NATO summit in Wales in 2014.
Germany is expected to meet the target this year for the first time since the end of the Cold War, largely thanks to a special 100 billion euro (about $107 billion) fund created in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But increased funding is far from guaranteed.
For this reason, diplomats and experts in Brussels agree that Trump is right when he refers to the urgent need for Europeans to invest more in their collective defense. “I think what the presidential candidate said in the United States is also something to wake up some of the allies who haven’t done much,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told reporters during a visit to Brussels.
Governments across the continent appear to understand that European allies must do more for their own defense, regardless of who the next US president is. These efforts are at the heart of the contingency plans that European allies are developing behind the scenes, focusing on improved military capabilities and a more unified strategic approach.
With information from Deutsche Welle