The result of unemployment last December, with 10.3%, and an annual rate of 11.2% for the total of 2022, has aroused uncertainty in the markets because not enough jobs are being created.
According to a report from the ANIF, although last year there was an accelerated recovery in employment for several months, as the months went by this rate decreased, “so we are still a considerable distance from the pre-pandemic rates.
The think tank considers that “the speed of the recovery of economic activity was not accompanied by the same performance in the recovery of employment. The results at the end of the year are consistent with the analysis and ANIF projections reported in past deliveries”.
They warn that “with the foregoing and in the face of a complex local and global panorama in 2023, the national unemployment rate could deteriorate in the coming months. Together with the cyclical factors that economic contraction implies to the detriment of job creation, the presence of strong structural barriers makes it even more difficult to reduce the level of unemployment”.
cities
In particular, the 13 main cities in the country contributed more than proportionally to the creation of employment, but the loss of momentum in recent months and the evident difficulties in the rest of the territory due to new pressures in the labor market, augur a difficult outlook for this year.
In the month of December, the national unemployment rate was 10.3%, which implies an average result of 11.2% in 2022, as we had anticipated in our projections. Although the unemployment rate for December 2022 is 0.8 points lower than that of December 2021 (11.1%) and the annual average for 2022 is 2.6 points lower than that of the previous year (13.8%), we are still far from the figures seen before the health emergency.
The analysis maintains that “when taking into account the period from 2010 to 2019, we see that the results of 2022 still have a wide margin for improvement, since the monthly average of the past decade was 10.2%.
On the other hand, the Colombian labor market shows positive signs in terms of formalization of its employed. When analyzing the occupational position of the new jobs, a growth of 996,000 people who entered private employment (closer to formal dynamics) is noted, together with a reduction of 61,000 self-employed workers (further away from the formality).
Similarly, the manufacturing industry, public administration, education and health activities, and artistic and entertainment activities were the branches of activity with the highest number of new employees.
unemployed
Additionally, the number of unemployed was reduced between December 2021 and December 2022 by 111 thousand people for a total of 2.6 million unemployed people. In contrast, in the 13 main cities there was an increase of 16 thousand people in unemployment, which sends signs of stagnation in the recovery in the country’s productive centers. In addition, in the month of December the number of men who came out of unemployment (20,000) is less than the number of women (91,000). However, it must be taken into account that there are 1.2 million men and 1.4 million women unemployed.
“With this in mind, by the end of 2023 we continue with our projection of an average unemployment rate for the year between 11.5% and 12%, which is considerably higher than the 11.2% that was achieved in 2022. In a shorter term, for the month January that just ended, our projections indicate an unemployment rate between 13.5% and 14%, which would represent a decrease of between 0.6 points and 1.1 points compared to January 2022 ”, indicates the study.
IT IS FEARED that there will be more unemployment this year given the drop in growth and the situation in the country.