In a key meeting to respond to the climate crisis, nearly two hundred countries will gather in Egypt from 6 November for the twenty-seventh United Nations climate conference or COP27.
You may remember hearing about COP26 which was held in Glasgow, UK, a year ago. That conference had often been referred to as our “last and best chance” of keeping global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees centigrade this century. Emissions have since hit record highs after falling due to lockdowns from the covid-19 pandemic. This year alone we have seen dozens of catastrophic disasters, from drought in the Horn of Africa to floods in Pakistan, South Africa and Australia, through fires and heat waves in Europe, the United States, Mongolia and South America, among others. .
As the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres said on 3 October: “On every climate front, the only solution is decisive and supportive action. Cop27 is the place where all countries can demonstrate that they are participating in this fight and are doing it together ”. And so, as natural disasters intensify and war rages on in Ukraine, what can we expect from this important summit?
What happens at the Cop conferences
The Conferences of the Parties are held within the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Unfcc), which turns 30 this year, having been created during the Rio Earth Summit in 1992. COP27 will be held in the city. Egyptian tourist in Sharm el Sheikh.
Cops enable the international community to establish an equitable sharing of responsibilities to tackle climate change. That is, who must lead the fight to reduce emissions, who must pay for the transition to new forms of energy production and who must compensate those who already suffer the effects of climate change. They also allow different countries to agree on rules for compliance with commitments, or processes for transferring funds and resources from rich to poorer states. And they offer the opportunity to share the latest scientific findings on climate change.
Equally important is the fact that COP meetings focus international attention on the climate crisis and the responses to address it. This creates pressure on countries to make new commitments or at least play a constructive role in the negotiations.
Is COP27 less important than COP26?
In some ways, COP27 is less significant than COP26. The latter, the first in two years after the postponement due to covid-19, was the deadline by which countries had to commit to new emission reduction targets under the rules of the 2015 Paris Agreement.
That agreement allowed different countries to make their own commitments, with the idea that they would become more ambitious every five years. Glasgow was essentially a big test to see if the deal had actually succeeded in making commitments to fight climate change more ambitious.
Glasgow was also significant because it was the first COP to see the US return after the Trump administration’s withdrawal. Sharm el-Sheikh, on the other hand, is not so much a test of the deal itself. It is more an opportunity to renew the commitment on mitigation and funding and to decide the next steps to take to realize these commitments.
But the stakes are high nonetheless, and some key points of debate loom.
Will more countries make new commitments?
The first major test of COP27 will be the assumption by countries of further commitments to reduce emissions. In Glasgow, more than 100 nations had promised to meet new emission reduction targets. But these commitments still remain far from those needed to achieve the goals agreed in Paris. Instead of providing a path to contain global warming by 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius, the policies out of Glasgow show that in reality the world is on the road to an increase of 2.4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. This would endanger people and ecosystems around the world. Assuming that countries achieve their goals.
Yet on the eve of COP27 fewer than twenty countries have provided updates and only a few have outlined new emission reduction targets or net zero emissions commitments. And among those responsible for more than 1 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions, only India and Australia have submitted updates.
Show us the money
There are also three major issues surrounding climate finance looming in Egypt, namely funding to support mitigation and adaptation.
The first issue concerns the failure of the most developed countries to comply with the commitment, made in 2009, to provide one hundred billion dollars a year in funds for developing countries. The topic was raised in Glasgow, but has remained a dead letter ever since. And there is no prospect that this target will be achieved in 2022.
Second, less industrialized countries, including many Pacific states, will ask to focus more on funding for adaptation to the effects of global warming. So far, most of the funds have been devoted to mitigation projects, which focus on helping less rich countries reduce their emissions. However, as climate change is felt more in poorer countries, funding for adaptation has become even more important.
Third, the Paris Agreement provides for the recognition of probable “loss and damage”, ie the destruction caused by climate change, where mitigation and adaptation efforts have been insufficient to prevent damage. There was no commitment at the time to provide compensation for losses and damages. In Egypt, developing countries are likely to press more for financial commitments from more developed ones. The developed world is primarily responsible for climate change and can afford to spend more money to protect itself from its effects. Less wealthy countries, on the other hand, are less responsible, more likely to suffer from climate effects, and are less able to pay the costs of managing these consequences.
Given that the negotiations will take place in Africa, we can expect these issues to have a prominent place during COP27.
The storm winds of international politics
While it has been difficult in the past to reach a global agreement on climate action, recent events in international politics cast further shadows on the prospects for true cooperation at COP27.
First, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to rising global inflation, soaring energy prices, and growing international concerns about access to energy. All of these elements have diverted attention – and even potential funding – from the climate action imperative.
Furthermore, Russia, a key player in international climate talks, could play the role of a spoiler.
China, the world‘s largest emitter, also seems equally dissatisfied with the global political situation. This is evident from his approach to international climate policy. In Glasgow, for example, China had reached a fundamental agreement with the United States on climate cooperation, but it was suspended immediately after the visit to Taiwan by the president of the United States House, Nancy Pelosi, in August 2022.
There is no more time
The Egyptian minister for international cooperation announced in May that international action at COP27 should focus on the transition “from promises to deeds”. This means targets to reduce emissions, but the homeowners have been clear on the need for rich states to stick to their financial commitments. The manifestations of climate change have made this concern urgent for many less industrialized countries that are already feeling the effects.
It is clear that these talks represent a pivotal moment for the planet. We risk running out of time to avoid climate catastrophe.
(Translation by Federico Ferrone)