Borussia Dortmund and FC Bayern have home advantage in the second legs of the quarter-finals of the Champions League. This is still considered an advantage in knockout mode. The numbers back this up, but it’s close.
This question has actually been asked from time to time. Is it better to play away now because there was a bitter defeat at home recently, a concert of catcalls, maybe even the infamous blockade of the team bus. Every now and then the answer even suggested that it was actually better. The term “away advantage” never made it into football parlance, nor did the term “away advantage”.
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“Home law,” on the other hand, is often talked about, even if the term is not always explicitly mentioned. Borussia Dortmund coach Edin Terzić said before the second leg of the Champions League quarter-finals against Atlético: “It is definitely one of the best places in the football world.” In this case it is the south stand where the fans stand, sing and are louder than those opposite or on the sides. “We are sure: we will receive full support for 90 minutes – or, if necessary, 120 minutes,” said Terzić.
Bayern and Dortmund with good starting positions
“Home advantage in the second leg” is one of the top wishes for the knockout rounds in the European Cup, which is fulfilled by both German teams still represented. BVB will play against Atlético on Tuesday (April 16, 2024, from 21 in the audio live stream at sportschau.de), and FC Bayern Munich will play against Arsenal a day later.
Both teams had their wish fulfilled in the first leg, which until the summer was almost equivalent to “home advantage in the second leg” – the away goal in the first leg. Bayern even had two, so a 2-2 draw in London put them in a pretty good starting position.
For BVB, the goal that made the final score 1-2 in Madrid was extremely important, even if the goal from the now injured Sebastién Haller would no longer count twice in the final calculation if the score was equal.
Home advantage is no longer as important as it used to be
That’s why Real Madrid only needs a draw at Manchester City on Wednesday to reach penalties. FC Barcelona supposedly has the best chance of making it to the semi-finals, because they won 3-2 against Paris Saint-Germain and now also have home advantage, although the term should have an asterisk because of the renovation of Camp Nou Barça plays temporarily in the Olympic Stadium.
When the away goals rule was abolished for the 2022/23 season, Aleksander Čeferin, president of the European Football Association, said: “It is fair to say that home advantage is no longer as important as it used to be.”
The data supports the Slovenians in this theory, but numbers also show that it is still statistically advantageous to be able to play the second leg in their own stadium.
Second leg at home remains statistically advantageous
For this purpose, the Sportschau evaluated all quarter-final and semi-final rounds in the Champions League since the 2003/04 season, because since then there has been no second group phase and an immediately following quarter-final.
The round of 16 was left out of the review period because there are restrictions on the draw that distort the picture. The group winners each meet the runner-up from a different group. It is also stipulated that the group winner can play the second game at home. “Home right in the second leg” has long since made it into the regular season.
There have been 20 seasons since the summer of 2003, but only 19 are counted because in 2020 there was a final tournament in Lisbon due to the corona pandemic.
This means that there are 19 times six duels considered, four in the quarter-finals and two in the semi-finals. In these 114 clashes, the team that had home advantage in the second leg prevailed 60 times. That amounts to 52.6 percent. So it’s just enough to at least statistically prove an advantage.