The penalty of ten points in the standings for the capital gains affair and the 4-1 defeat at Castellani against Empoli: Monday 22 May could have been the fateful day for Juventus’ ambitions. The bianconeri are now seventh in the standings, five points behind fourth place occupied by Milan. If Allegri’s team had won against Empoli, qualification in the Champions League would have depended only on his results. Now, however, Juve must not only win their remaining games, but also look at the results of their opponents. Here are the only two possible scenarios for Champions League qualification.
The first combination
- Juve wins with at least two goals difference against Milan and beats Udinese
- Milan do not beat Verona on matchday 38
- Roma and Atalanta don’t score 6 points
On Sunday 28 May, Juve have a direct match at home against Milan. Winning him by two goals, the bianconeri would equalize the standings separated from the rossoneri (winners 2-0 in the first leg at San Siro). Thus, on the last day, also winning in Udine, in Allegri Milan’s draw against Verona would be enough, probably still engaged in the fight for salvation, to finish fourth. In this case, Juve and Milan would end up with the same points (65) and with head-to-head matches, the bianconeri would prevail due to the overall goal difference (currently +23 Juve and +18 Milan). If Juve win with at least 3 goals difference, the bianconeri would already overturn the detached ranking. At the same time, however, Atalanta and Roma, ahead of Juve by 2 points and 1 point respectively in the standings, will not have to win all their last games. Difficult calendar for both: Atalanta will play at San Siro against Inter and then at home against Monza. Rome will go to Florence before the Europa League final and then will host Spezia at the Olimpico, another team perhaps still involved in the fight not to relegate. L’Inter would mathematically qualify with one point against Atalanta.
The second combination
- Juve wins with only one goal difference against Milan and beats Udinese
- Milan lost against Verona on matchday 38
- Roma and Atalanta don’t score six points
Compared to the previous scenario, the way Juventus would win against Milan changes. With just one goal difference, the bianconeri would still be behind the rossoneri in direct matches (-1 on goal difference). In this way, Allegri should hope for a defeat by Pioli at home against Verona. If the Rossoneri lose both of their last games and Juve win them, there would be another overtaking in the standings (Juve 65 points, Milan 64 points).