Juve out of Europe? The economic loss without cups (and sponsors)

Juventus outside Europe is not just a possibility in the light of the 15 penalty points decided by the Federal Court of Appeal, ballast that makes them resume the championship for the last day of the first leg at -12 from the Champions area and from Europe League. Having her out of the cups was also the singular declared objective of the Federal Prosecutor’s Office at the time of the requests for sanctions, in light of the seriousness of the disputed facts. Which therefore becomes a scenario to be taken into concrete account with one if not two other sports investigations on the way. The sporting effects of a Juve outside Europe would be considerable, but the economic ones even more.

HOW MUCH IS THE CHAMPIONS WORTH

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There are many variables, but a reliable estimate allows us to quantify what a season without the Champions League would mean for Juventus. Already a 2021 study found the UEFA prizes arrived in nine seasons at 720 million. An average of around 80 per year confirmed by the data of the last few seasons: 95.6 million arrived in 2018-19, 84.1 in 2019-20, 82.8 in 2020-21 and 79 in 2021-22. Just Uefa prizes, putting together the items related to historical ranking, market pool, results on the pitch… To which all box office revenues should then be added. And all the latest campaigns, it should be remembered, made little or no progress beyond the first phase: in 2016-17, reaching the final, they had been 110 million.

HOW MUCH IT WEIGHTS ON THE BUDGET

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It is no coincidence that the achievement of at least fourth place in the league which is worth accessing the Champions League the following season is written in black and white as the minimum objective of the multi-year economic plan to guarantee economic stability: taking as a reference the 443.3 million revenues of the In the financial year ended 30 June 2022, doing without the approximately 80 arriving from the Champions League would mean finding yourself without approximately 20 percent of the revenue. And with the Europa League? Despite the difficulties of a generic quantification that disregards the inevitable variables linked to ranking, market pool and results, a reasonable range of income for those who participate in the former UEFA cup varies between 25 and 50 million: realistically a final figure around half to the Champions League. All net of any measures that may come from UEFA also on participation in the European cups, a further spectrum for Juve among the worst possible scenarios.

BRAND AND SPONSOR

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However, being without Europe is not just a question of the box office, which is remarkable, or of the very remarkable UEFA prizes, which would disappear. There would also be a less easily readable theme of deteriorated visibility which could only damage a brand that has carved out an international profile for itself, not exactly fueled by recent results. The risk is that of a devaluation with the sponsors: beyond any “malus” in the absence of the Champions League, if the agreements with Adidas (408 million until 2027) and Allianz (103 million until 2030) have relatively distant deadlines, the the greatest risk is paradoxically the one expiring in 2023-24 with Jeep. Paradoxically because, as is known, it is a “household” company, an investment that is also supported by objective feedback for the brand. If these fail, even the family’s will to keep investments high – now that Juve is back under Elkann management – would all remain to be seen, especially if results and visibility took a nosedive.