Olympics, blue skiing is medal in 10 out of 11 races

Few but good. To get to know the face of Italy in skiing at the Beijing Games we will have to wait until January 18, when the IOC will close the long and laborious process of assigning athletes’ quotas to the various countries, but net of some fundamental variables – injuries, positive Covid and the results of a month as hot as January – we can already say that the blue expedition could be more “dense” than in the past, with fewer athletes (perhaps) but with greater chances of a medal.

The rules

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To date, Italy has the right to bring 17 skiers, 10 women and 7 men to China. For each of the 10 individual races – there will then also be the parallel team – each team is entitled to a maximum of four bibs. Each athlete can participate in one, none as in 6 races. The maximum number of athletes that can be brought to Beijing is 22 (11 men and 11 women), a total for now reached only by Switzerland (Austria is 20). This is a mobile “fixing”, which varies according to the results in the World Cup and which, compared to the past, does not allow the “passing” of quotas from men to women and vice versa. Then there is the certainty that on 17 January – when the IOC will ask all countries for confirmation of the places assigned by law – some spaces will be free and someone will be “turned over” to Italy as well. By January 18th you will have to say yes or no to this little bonus. Probably on paper there will be 11 blue and 9 blue, that is the same number of skiers brought to PyeongChang (in South Korea there were 11 men and 9 women). But it is by no means certain that Fisi will use them all.

Polarized

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The fact is that, compared to PyeongChang, in Italian skiing there is a greater polarization in the quality of the blue team of the World Cup, with a high end – that of Goggia, Paris, Brignone, Vinatzer, Bassino and De Aliprandini -, some good athletes who can aspire to the shot, and very few who sail continuously around 10th place in the Cup results. Let’s take the women, who would have 11 places. Goggia, Brignone and Bassino will certainly be at the start of giant and super-G, Sofia and Federica will also make the descent, Federica and Marta in all likelihood also the combined: in all these races they will have a chance for the podium. For the descent and the super-G will be added Elena Curtoni – two podiums this year -, but in the fastest test Nadia Delago also pushes for a bib – two sixth and an eighth place – and her sister Nicol (an eighth), who with Francesca Marsaglia can always put their paw, especially in the tracks most congenial to them. In short, there is a problem of abundance in speed. Slalom is in the opposite condition. In the three four races held so far, the only athletes capable of finishing a race in the points, that is among the top 30, are Martina Peterlini, who will miss the Games because she broke her right knee ligaments, and Federica Brignone, 22nd in Killington and 16th in Lienz. Now, if a top 10 finish is the minimum standard for the Games, never having qualified also eliminates the chances of some hopeful youngsters who could be sent to China to gain experience, as they did four years ago with Vinatzer. This means that between Zagreb (tomorrow), Kranjska Gora (Sunday) and Flachau (Tuesday 11), or the various Rossetti, Gulli, Della Mea, Mathiou and Tschutschenthaler will send a signal, or there is the possibility that in the slalom of the Games you participate – if she wants to – only Federica Brignone. That’s why 11 places for women are likely to be too many. At the very least, it will be possible to decide to take as many possible downhill races, even six or seven, and take advantage of the tests to see who, behind Goggia and Curtoni, is best suited to a track about which practically nothing is known. But without slalom, getting to 11 will be really tough.

Numbered men

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Different panorama for men, where seven places are likely to be few. Obviously there is no question of Dominik Paris, and neither does Mattia Casse and Matteo Marsaglia, who have achieved good placings between downhill and super-G. Innerhofer’s place could also be at risk without a top 10 between Wengen (where the super-G jumped in Bormio could be recovered) and Kitzbuehel, especially if for the other three Olympic competitions there will be only four places that will necessarily go to De Aliprandini (giant ), Vinatzer and Razzoli (slalom) and maybe Tonetti (combined). With the renouncement of the athletes of the smaller nations, another couple of places will jump out, but January is the month of the great classics and there will be many pretenders, from some gigantist who will try to get the rabbit out of the hat on Saturday in Adelboden, up to the various slalomists – Gross, Sala, Maurberger, the eternal Manfred Moelgg – who can do well between Zagreb (Wednesday), Adelboden (Sunday) and Wengen (16th). The impression is that the following weekend, with the sprinters in Cortina and the men in Kitzbuehel, will only serve for confirmation. On Monday 24th the official list of athletes will have to be delivered to the IOC.