© Reuters. Feature planning|The European Cup Olympics is a summer that is not “epidemic”, are beer stocks still hot?
According to the Financial Associated Press (Changsha, reporter Li Yongjun), summer is the peak season for beer consumption, and competitive sports such as football are almost the best promotion carriers for beer. Therefore, large-scale events such as the European Cup and the Olympics have always been the stage where major beer merchants are gearing up.
Next week and next month, the 2020 European Cup and the Tokyo Olympics, which have been postponed for one year, will follow one after another. Under the shadow of the epidemic, can beer usher in a wave of consumption peaks in the summer of 2021? Will beer stocks usher in a wave of opportunities during the European Cup and the Olympics? This issue of beer special report will find the answer for you.
Sports events get together to catalyze the peak season of beer sales
The 2020 European Cup will kick off in the early hours of June 12th, Beijing time. In one month, 24 teams will fight each other in 11 European countries. From Glasgow to Munich, to St. Petersburg and London, they will all be enthusiastic about the fans. Shrouded. And watching football with beer has long become a standard.
Statistics show that whenever there is a European Cup year (for example, 2012, 2016), beer consumption in Europe rises by an average of about 5.9%, while the sales of European beer in the remaining years show an average annual increase of 0.6%. Therefore, when major events such as the World Cup and the European Cup come, it is also a happy time for bars and wine merchants.
Although Japanese people have been calling for the cancellation of the Tokyo Olympics, 9 prefectures, including Tokyo and Osaka, will extend their emergency status against the new crown epidemic until June 20. However, as the Australian women’s softball team took action on June 1. The first overseas Olympic team arrived at Narita Airport in Japan. It is a high probability event that the Tokyo Olympics will be held in July as scheduled.
In fact, beer and sports have a long history. The establishment of Liverpool Football Club in 1892 stemmed from the owner’s desire to sell beer on the stadium. For the 2014 World Cup, Brazil’s official site had to suspend the prohibition on stadium alcohol that began in 2003 during the World Cup. In the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, Pele publicly stated that fans should have the right to drink beer and watch football. FIFA Secretary General Walker also said that “drinking and watching football is an essential part of the World Cup”. In the end, Brazilian officials had to give in to this magical yellow liquid and suspended the prohibition on stadiums that began in 2003 during the 2014 World Cup.
Carlsberg, Heineken, Budweiser and other major global beer brands are also fans of the World Cup and the European Cup. The official beer partner of the European Cup in 2020 is Heineken. Heineken will enjoy the exclusive fan zone, the award of the best player on the spot, digital copyright and other rights in this year’s European Cup.
In addition, ByteDance’s TikTok and Douyin are both official partners of Euro 2020. They will release exclusive event content during the game, obtain European Cup media rights in the form of short videos, and launch multiple game viewing experiences for fans. As one of the most important new media platforms in China, Douyin, the European Cup and the Olympic Games, will also test the new media marketing capabilities of major beer brands.
Beer companies’ overweight layout of “moving sales” has surpassed before the epidemic
Beer consumption, which has been suppressed by the epidemic, will also be “released” this summer. In an interview with reporters, some beer companies in South China said that their current sales have exceeded the pre-epidemic period in 2019, and they are very optimistic about the beer market this year. For A-share investors, the stocks related to the event, especially beer stocks, are still worthy of attention.
At the close of trading on June 2, the market value of A-share Tsingtao Brewery (600600.SH) was 139.232 billion yuan, Chongqing Beer (600132.SH) had a market value of 82.986 billion yuan, Zhujiang Beer (002461.SZ) was 26.361 billion yuan, and Yanjing Beer (000729) .SZ) 21.675 billion yuan topped the list. Huiquan Beer (600573.sh) and Lanzhou Yellow River (000929.SZ) are at the bottom with a market value of 2.803 billion yuan and 2.263 billion yuan respectively.
It is not difficult to see that there is a huge gap between domestic beer listed companies. Judging from the 2020 annual report and 2021 Q1 financial report, the leading Tsingtao Beer, Chongqing Beer and Zhujiang Beer, despite being dragged down by the epidemic last year, performed well last year, and their efforts in the mid-to-high-end market have brought increased profits.
Longyi Tsingtao Brewery is a witness to the development and changes of the industry. From the extension of mergers and acquisitions in the 1990s to the market expansion in the 2000s, competition intensified in the 2010s.
In 2018, the management began to reinvigorate the Tsingtao Brewery brand in multiple dimensions, and the product-side “addition and subtraction” paralleled and accelerated the upgrade.
In 2019, Tsingtao beer 1903 national tide cans and whole wheat white beer will be launched. In 2020, high-end new products such as new white beer, Pearson craft brewing and Amber Lager will be launched. At the same time, the development of the classic series will be promoted. The two main products of Classic + Pure Health will drive the common development of other N new products. The low-end Laoshan brand integrates low-end products and optimizes channels and brands in disguise through periodic price increases.
Tsingtao Brewery’s net profit growth rate will remain above 20% in 2019-2020. Sales in 2021Q1 surpassed 2019Q1. The company achieved revenue of 8.928 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.87%; realized a net profit of 1.022 billion yuan attributable to the parent, a year-on-year increase of 90.26%; and realized a net profit of 910 million yuan attributable to the parent after deduction of non-profits, a year-on-year increase of 97.35%. .
Sales surpassed 2019Q1, and high-endization accelerated. At present, the market has entered a positive cycle, and price increases have become the new normal, and Tsingtao Brewery has entered a profit “harvest period”.
Zhongtai Securities expects that with the recovery of high-end wine consumption channels such as night markets and high-end catering and the acceleration of the company’s high-end, Tsingtao Brewery’s average price is expected to maintain a 5%+ growth trend.
Chongqing Beer is a dark horse in recent years. With the injection of Carlsberg premium beer assets into listed companies in 2020, Chongqing Beer has successfully built a 6+6 brand matrix.
In the high-end price band, Chongqing Beer owns high-end brands such as K1664, Carlsberg, Wusu, Fenghuaxueyue; in the mainstream price band, strong brands such as Lebao, Chongqing, Xixia and Dali can provide stable investment support for high-end.
In 2020, Chongqing Beer’s high-end liquor revenue/sales will increase by 26.3%/30.4%, and the revenue/sales ratio will be as high as 30.7%/19.4%, and the product structure will continue to be optimized. The ton price of Chongqing Beer in 2020 is as high as 4384 yuan, which is much higher than other domestic beer companies and slightly lower than Budweiser Asia Pacific.
Chongqing Beer achieved a revenue of 3.272 billion yuan in 2021Q1, and an attributable net profit of 295 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 489.25% and 766.02% respectively.
The local epidemic may affect the overall “fruits to be picked in midsummer”
Zhujiang Beer achieved revenue of 773 million yuan in Q1, an increase of 39.74% year-on-year, and its parent net profit was 70 million yuan, an increase of 243.13% year-on-year. What Zhujiang Brewery has to worry about now is the control of the recent rebound in the epidemic in its base camps such as Guangzhou, Foshan and Shenzhen. After all, if government regulation is strengthened and the gathering of catering and other foods decreases, it will affect the company’s sales.
Yanjing Beer is a lesson from the past. Yanjing Beer will achieve revenue of 10.928 billion yuan in 2020, -4.71% year-on-year, and realize net profit attributable to the parent company of 197 million yuan, -14.32% year-on-year.
Relatively speaking, Yanjing Beer has suffered from multiple rounds of domestic epidemics in 2020 (20Q1 national epidemic, June Beijing epidemic, and Shunyi and Hebei epidemics at the end of the year). Therefore, the company’s annual sales declined significantly, mainly due to the northern market, especially the Beijing market. Caused by.
However, the upgrading trend of Yanjing Beer’s product structure is obvious. Mid-to-high-end products achieved revenue of 6.028 billion yuan, +2.79% year-on-year; ordinary products achieved revenue of 4.050 billion yuan, -16.86% year-on-year. . The annual average ASP of beer products was 2,851 yuan, +1.2% year-on-year. In terms of channels, online e-commerce channels have made significant efforts, achieving revenue of 106 million yuan, +55.69% year-on-year. Obviously, in response to the epidemic, the company actively promoted cooperation with third-party e-commerce companies and achieved obvious results.
The company launched the core single product Yanjing U8 last year, and the effect is quickly showing. Since 20Q4-21Q1, the bottleneck of U8 production capacity has been highlighted. Starting this year, three subsidiaries in Hunan, Sichuan, and Chifeng, Inner Mongolia will be added to produce U8, and the headquarters and Liquan will be superimposed. U8 production bases will increase to 5, which is expected to effectively guarantee the U8 sales plan in 2021. Implement.
Yanjing Beer reported in Q1 for the first quarter of 2021. The company achieved revenue of 2.776 billion yuan, +38.49% year-on-year, and realized a net profit of 109 million yuan attributable to the parent, representing a year-on-year reduction of 55.85% in losses. With the expansion of U8 production, in the second and third quarters of the peak season, the upward trend of Yanjing Beer will likely continue.
While some are happy and some are sad, and the pioneers are better off, the Yellow River, Lhasa and other beers at the end each have their own pain points. It is not optimistic whether they can get a share in this summer.
Of course, the summer event is not just the patent of beer stocks. Juewei Foods (603517.SH) executives stated at the 2020 annual shareholders meeting that drinking beer and gnawing duck necks is the standard for new humans to watch football. The company has made corresponding preparations for the European Cup and the Olympic Games and will give you one Surprise.