Villareal-Liverpool the precedents and the odds of the Champions semifinal

In the history of the Champions League, there has been only one team able to overturn a disadvantage of two (or more goals) after the first leg: the Liverpool of Jurgen Klopp, who after losing 3-0 at the Camp Nou in the 2019 found an incredible 4-0 at Anfield to then win the final against Tottenham. Now the Reds are on the other side, having won the first of the two semi-final matches against Villarreal 2-0: the hope of the Spaniards hangs by a thread, Unai Emery must find the feat that her opponents managed three years ago. And what happened at the weekend does not bode well: Villarreal were defeated 2-1 at Alaves and are now seventh in the standings, even if they have one game less than those in front (Real Sociedad at +3 and Betis at +5).

The previous

—

Liverpool have instead found three points that keep the hope of winning the Premier League alive: 1-0 at Newcastle with a goal from Naby Keita. The problem for Klopp is that it all depends on Manchester City, one point ahead (4-0 win at Leeds) with four days left to play. Now head to the Champions League, therefore, with the possibility of a Liverpool-City final that would be incredible: the Reds return to the Villarreal stadium after playing there in the 2015/16 Europa League semifinal, losing 1-0 with the goal by Adrian Lopez in recovery. A result that did not condemn the Reds (3-0 victory in the return to Anfield) and that would allow Klopp’s team to reach the Champions League final.

The numbers

—

While Villarreal are unbeaten in home games in the knockout stage of the Champions League, they have only won two out of seven, with five draws. And the goals scored, considering both teams, were only 10: Villarreal have never found more than one goal in these matches. With Liverpool you need two (without suffering) to take the game to extra time: will Emery be able to do the feat? The Reds are one step away from their tenth Champions League final (or Champions Cup): they would be the fourth team to reach double figures after Real Madrid (16), Bayern Munich (11) and Milan (11).