“Ariane 6 will be launched in the first half of 2024. We will announce the exact period in October, later than expected 470 second test on the first stage motorthe Vulcain 2.1” that the general director of the European Space Agency, Josef Aschbacher, opened the press conference dedicated to the European heavy launcher indicating not the date, but the probable debut period, reaffirms how much the question was expected and remains crucial.
In some ways, the announcement could be summarized as a stalemate, given that already in recent months it was learned that Ariane 6 would not fly in Space before next year. For others, the question should be investigated further. Because, thanks to the accumulated delays (the original plans envisaged that the rocket would be operational as early as 2020), today Europe does not have autonomous access to Space, an important issue both for the scientific repercussions, considering the many missions that were supposed to fly new rocket, both strategic, since not reaching Space means leave on the ground satellites necessary for navigation, the weather, telecommunications and the observation of the planet, or entrust them to non-European operators, as it is probable will happen to some of the Galileo constellation of the European Union.
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We will return to this truly crucial point in a few lines, because in the meantime it is appropriate to dwell on Ariane 6: as long as the October deadline is respected (and given the previous ones, prudence is inevitable), the new heavy launcher ESA and its member countries will have to use in the next decade will start at least 4 years later than initially estimated. A situation, they tell the space agency, caused by technical problems, a pandemic and design changes, the consequences of which, for Europe, are aggravated by the war in Ukraine, with its severance of relations with Moscow and the use of the Russian Soyuz (managed by Arianespace) and the momentary stop of the other continental launcher, the Vega C.
The latter, a rocket for medium-light loads largely built by the Italian company Avio, was subject to a failure last December, during the first commercial mission. Expected by the end of the year, its return to the ramp does not yet have a certain date, given that a test carried out at the end of June has not given the desired results. Don’t forget to add to the scenario the retirement of Ariane 5, which last flew beyond the sky at the beginning of July after 27 years of service and 117 missions (many highlightincluding the launch of the James Webb Space Telescope at Christmas 2021).
To face one situation defined by him as “serious”, Aschbacher and the task force dedicated to Ariane 6 had also decided, before the summer, to publish periodic updates on the development of the launcher. Of the two most recent, one, who arrived on August 30, spoke of the umpteenth postponement of the fire test (the ignition) of the first stage, scheduled for August 29 at the European spaceport of Kourou, in French Guiana, but postponed due to what ESA has defined as “a technical problem at the control desk”, assigned to manage the refueling of the propellant and the automated countdown. The test, which will turn on the Vulcain 2.1 engine for several seconds, it was rescheduled for September 5th.
Il second update, from 3 days ago, instead gave an account of the success of a new fire test of the re-ignitable Vinci engine, that of the upper stage of Ariane 6, carried out in Lampoldshausen, Germany. The complete results of this verification, with which the task force said it was very satisfied, will allow the Ariane 6 upper stage to be declared “ready for first flight”. The other test, the longest, on Vulcain 2.1, is instead scheduled for October at the Kourou spaceport. It’s what Aschbacher is referring to when he talks about exact date of orbital debut: “We are in constant contact with all the stakeholders – added Stéphan Israël, CEO of Arianespace, on this point – and we can already say that the recent tests have confirmed to us 3 important characteristics of Ariane 6: that it is eagerly awaited by customers, that is suitable for both institutional and commercial needs, and that it is perfect for responding to new trends in the sector”.
But they will be next checks to say whether Israel is lacking in optimism and how much skepticism about the new launcher’s debut date is justified.
Ariane 6, features and costs (of the delay)
Once operational, Ariane 6 will be available in two configurations: the first, Ariane 62, will make use of two boosters, consisting of the first stage of Vega C (with the solid propellant motor, P120C). It will make it possible to transport loads of about 10 tons (10,300 kilograms) in low Earth orbit (Leo, up to one thousand kilometers from the Earth), or 4,500 kg in geostationary transfer orbit (or GTO, between the Leo and geostationary altitudes, at 36,000 kilometres). There second configuration, Ariane 64using 4 boosters, will be able to launch payloads of 11 and a half tons in geostationary transfer orbit, or over 20 tons (20,600 kilograms) in low orbit.
More than 60 meters tall, Ariane 6 will have a ramp weight of 900 tonnes (fully loaded), i.e. one and a half times an Airbus A380 passenger plane. Its development is engaging hundreds of European companies, led by the main manufacturer, ArianeGroup (European company joint venture Airbus and of the French group Safran). The Ariane 6 task force is made up of ESA’s top management, the main contractor of the base in Kourou, i.e. the French space agency (CNES), those conducting the tests, ArianeGroup and Arianespace, which manages them and sells in-orbit transportation services.
As stated in the press conference by Aschbacher, the development of Ariane 6 still falls within the scope of the 20% foreseen contingency and at the moment its costs amount to around 4 billion euros, “including delays” specified the number one of the Hex. Despite its development problems, as Israël was keen to underline, Ariane 6 already has a backlog of 28 orders, between institutional launches and commercial contracts, including 18 launches to put the megaconstellation into orbit for the Kuiper broadband internet connectivity, by Amazon.
Space Mission Juice, the ESA probe left for the moons of Jupiter by Matteo Marini 13 April 2023
Monopoly vs (intra) European competition
Due to the postponements of Ariane 6 and the stop of Vega C, the European Space Agency had to already launch some of its missions with SpaceX. He did it with Euclid, he will do it again in 2024 with Hera, the ideal continuation of the Dart planetary defense mission, and with EarthCare, for the study of clouds.
As written in the previous lines, negotiations are also underway for the launch of at least 4 Galileo satellites: using the transport services of an American private individual for strategic equipment in the European positioning constellation (Galileo, in fact) may seem like a paradox, but current events offer no other choice. “We will understand and support any decision of the European Union”, said Israël, not failing to recall how it is the unavailability of the Russian Soyuz, and not of Ariane 6, that has caused the current situation.
A scenario that is actually aggravated by the protectionist policy of which SpaceX, with the approval of NASA and the US government, is the protagonist, an attitude that allows it to propose, outside the national borders, prices capable of kneeling the competition.
To address the impasse, many, including Aschbacher, are now calling for a paradigm shift compared to what they define as a monopoly (of ArianeGroup/Arianespace and Avio), but which, unlike the role assumed by SpaceX in the United States, has the ballast of the European system: “If there is no competition, one is not efficient from cost point of view – Aschbacher said a few days ago – works very well in the satellite sector: Thales Alenia Space, Airbus, Ohb and other smaller companies are in a competition created by ESA. Thanks to this, Europe is producing some of the best satellites in the world in terms of cost and performance. I am convinced servant the same approach also for launchers: more competition”.
A clear position, but not without opposing opinions: the risk, the latter fear, is that instead of reinvigorating the European protagonists of the segment, stimulating the growth of new competitors could trigger not only industrial but even national frictions. The European market, it is argued, not comparable in volume and customers to the US one, would not make greater competition sustainable: “The context is changing – however Aschbacher had declared in an interview with Espresso – building a new launch system, perhaps reusable, takes about ten years. Deciding to develop it obviously cannot be separated from market assessments, but current events allow us to say that the generation following Ariane 6 and Vega C may also be reusable”.
Meanwhile, the focus remains on Ariane 6 and on European launchers: at least until October, the question will remain open.