The next negative record on climate issues will come in 2022. Despite the great efforts of the states and not least the energy crisis resulting from the Ukraine war, CO2 emissions worldwide have grown to 36.8 gigatons of CO2 (i.e. 36.8 billion tons). That is another 321 million tons (or 0.9 percent) more than in 2021. After all, CO2 emissions seem to be reaching a plateau – because from 2020 to 2021 growth was 6 percent.
The slight increase in CO2 emissions in 2022 by almost 1 percent is of course the wrong direction. Actually, 7% reduction each year would be required to reach the goal of halving emissions in this decade, i.e. by 2030.
This is the result of figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that have now been published. “The impact of the energy crisis has not resulted in the sharp rise in global emissions initially feared, thanks to outstanding growth in renewable energy, electric vehicles, heat pumps and energy-efficient technologies. Without clean energy, the increase in CO2 emissions would have been almost three times as high,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
“We are still seeing emissions from fossil fuels increasing, which is hampering efforts to meet global climate targets. International and national companies working with fossil fuels are making record sales and must take their share of the responsibility according to their public promises to reach the climate goals. It is vital that they review their strategies to ensure they are geared towards meaningful emissions reductions,” Birol continued.
Gas is falling, but coal and oil are rising
As reported, the Ukraine war has given renewable energies an “unprecedented boost”. Through the increased use of clean energy technologies, 550 million tons of emissions have been avoided. In particular, the expansion of solar energy is increasing – so much that photovoltaics will be the most important energy source in 2027, ahead of coal and gas. Unfortunately, it can still be stated that although emissions from natural gas fell by 1.6% or 118 megatons, emissions from coal (+1.6% or 243 Mt) and oil (+2.5% or 268 Mt) increased . This results in an overall increase in emissions from fossil fuels.
Interestingly, global emissions from industry fell by 1.7 percent, or 9.2 gigatonnes, from 2021. However, this is offset by an increase in the demand for electricity and heating. Emissions from power and heat generation increased by 1.8% or 261 million tons. And because it still uses a lot of coal power, rather than solar or wind power, coal-fired power and heat generation grew by 224 Mt, or 2.1%, led by emerging Asia.
If you look at individual regions of the world, you see the following picture. While emissions have fallen in Europe, they have stagnated in China and increased in the US. “In China, emissions remained broadly flat in 2022 as strict Covid-19 measures and a slowdown in construction led to weaker economic growth and a reduction in industrial and transport emissions. In the European Union, emissions fell by 2.5% as record renewable energy deployment helped prevent coal consumption from being as high as some observers had expected,” the IEA said.
“A mild start to the European winter and energy saving measures in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine also contributed. In the United States, emissions rose 0.8% as extreme temperatures increased energy use in buildings.”
Solar will be the world‘s largest source of energy by 2027