With the Italians returning from holidays and only a few days to vote, the electoral campaign has definitely come to life. According to a poll, conducted by SWG between the end of August and the beginning of September, in recent weeks almost a fifth (17%) of the voters have changed their minds regarding their voting intentions. Five percentage points higher than the same survey conducted by the research institute before the 2018 policies.
After all, the electorate, contrary to what happened in the past, appears increasingly volatile, fluctuating, as evidenced by the rise and fall of the League, without the latter having reaped the rewards.
Here then the strategies of each party become fundamental to try to change their minds to their advantage, or to convince the great mass of undecided ones in their favor, also through communication, the so-called propaganda as it was once called.
In all this, social networks, as we have documented starting from the end of August with our analyzes, are increasingly central in the communication repertoire of each party. For this reason DataMediaHub, exclusively for ItalianTech, has collected and analyzed the data available on advertising investments on Facebook and Instagram by each party. In the analysis, only the investments allocated by each party and / or its leader were taken into consideration. On the other hand, the investments made by some individual candidates have not been taken into consideration. Investments which in some cases, such as for the Northern League player Severino Nappi, may also be significant, but which would have made the comparison not homogeneous, and therefore the analysis methodologically incorrect.
All that said, of the main political parties / leaders there is only one who, until now, often has nothing in advertising on Meta’s social platforms: The 5 Star Movement.
Considering the advertising investments in the last ninety days (data from 04/06 to 01/09/2022), the biggest spenders in advertising are the Lega and its leader, who until now have allocated just under 88 thousand euros. That is about a thousand euros per day on average. And right now it has four campaigns active, four different advertising subjects, but in the last 90 days it has activated 76 different campaigns. A modality that is technically defined micro-targeting through which, in summary, personalized messages are created for each (micro) portion of the public to which one is addressed.
And in fact, if you access the “Public” section of the “library” of the League’s advertisements, you can see how this is done. Data-driven personalization is emerging as a central force in political communication. Political micro-targeting has the potential to enhance political engagement and make communication with potential voters and supporters easier and more effective for political parties and movements. However, the collection and use of personal information about voters also affects their privacy rights and can interfere with personal autonomy essential for democracy.
If, on the other hand, we take into consideration the data of the last week (26/08 -01/09/2022), those who spend the most of all are Fratelli d’Italia and / or Meloni with just under 35 thousand euros invested in the last seven days compared to to a total of just over 59 thousand euros invested in the last three months. In short, Salvini’s ally, but also rival, definitely pushes on the accelerator. And even if its segmentation appears less refined than that of the League, dividing the public it addresses into broader categories based on interests and / or lifestyles, such as government employees rather than owners of small businesses, the pressure carried out grows day by day. And, after a hundred advertising investments by the various parties on Meta, in the last week FdI / Meloni have a “share of voice”, a share much higher than half (57.5%).
On the other hand, the Democratic Party, third by level of investments on Facebook and Instagram, slows down, passing from a share of voice of 21% in the last 90 days to a share of 9.5% in the last week. This despite a confidential poll published by Repubblica clearly indicates the need for Letta’s party to recover at least four percentage points compared to what the polls say today.
Among the main political parties / leaders that invest in advertising, the least spender of all is Forza Italia / Berlusconi, even if it seems to grow as the election date approaches, as shown by the infographic with the detailed data of our analysis.
