The Italian intelligence report warns of the growing risks related to cyber and hybrid threats within the complex international political scenario. The central role assumed by technology in our society and the rapid development of technologies such as artificial intelligence increase the attack surface, offering new opportunities to increasingly sophisticated actors and threats. Events such as real-world conflicts are having a major impact on operations conducted in cyberspace, mainly by state actors (nation-state actors). The evolutions of the geopolitical framework linked to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and that of Israel-Hamas have important repercussions on the threat landscape.
In this continuously and rapidly evolving scenario, Italy is a strategic target of campaigns and attacks conducted by state actors as well as non-state actors, i.e. groups of pseudo activists who conduct attacks in support of one of the states at war.
According to the intelligence report, critical infrastructures such as hospitals, energy networks, transportation and communications networks are most exposed to such threats. National security, now more than ever, depends on our country’s ability to be resilient to cyber threats. Public and private organizations are confronted daily with increasingly complex and skilled actors and threats. Regarding the motivation for the attacks, a clear prevalence of campaigns conducted by cyber criminals with economic objectives is confirmed, also for 2023.
The report highlights how cyber attacks can undermine the economic stability of a company or an entire sector, while hybrid threats, such as disinformation campaigns, can destabilize the political context of a state and alter delicate political balances within alliances and transactional organizations. This aspect is particularly critical considering that 76 countries around the world are preparing to vote, exposing themselves to the real risk of interference and conditioning in voting operations.
In 2023, the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China were the main actors of the hybrid threat against Western countries. Cyber espionage operations, sabotage activities and disinformation campaigns are attributed to these actors. According to our intelligence, Russia is the most active actor, experts have observed an escalation of cyber operations against Western states since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. A positive note that emerges from the report is the “good level” of resilience of Western countries with respect to structured campaigns aimed at influencing public opinion on various issues.
As anticipated, with regards to the economic-financial threat, China continues to pursue an aggressive strategy aimed at acquiring know-how and achieving a competitive advantage based on innovation. Chinese APT (Advanced Persistent Threat) groups, operating under the direct control of the Beijing government, have conducted numerous espionage operations against Western organizations. These groups have demonstrated a growing ability to exploit zero-day flaws, i.e. not known at the time of the attack, in widely used software.
The analysis of the techniques, tactics and procedures (TTPs) employed by nation-state actors then revealed how they tap into the cybercrime ecosystem to source services and products to use in their campaigns. The reason can be traced back to the desire to make attribution complex and to give their operations the appearance of common criminal actions.
As regards attack methods, social engineering confirms itself as the main technique adopted by all malicious actors. Traditional attack techniques such as phishing and spear-phishing are the main attack vectors used by cybercriminals and nation-state groups.
On the disinformation front, China, like Russia, is able to conduct sophisticated campaigns aimed at influencing the perception of public opinion abroad in a way favorable to the interests of the People’s Republic of China.
Finally, the intelligence warns against actions that may be undertaken by malevolent actors against our country in conjunction with future events such as the next European Parliament elections in June 2024, the Italian Presidency of the G7 and the formal exit of Italy from the Memorandum of Understanding on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Of concern once again are the espionage campaigns aimed at gathering information about the strategy of Western countries towards Russia and China, and above all disinformation campaigns designed to undermine the cohesion of the European Union and NATO.