Greentech in the house in focus
The Federal Ministry of Economics also had the personnel requirement determined; the report published in March mentions 215,000 additional jobs that could be created for energy modernization in the building trade. “This is the only way to achieve the necessary increase in the renovation rate,” says the “Building Strategy Climate Neutrality 2045 Background Paper”.
The Prognos Institute was in charge, and the Freiburg Öko-Institut and the federal German Energy Agency were also involved. The increased need for personnel results from the fact that the current “refurbishment rate” of approximately one percent of the housing stock per year would have to almost double, according to calculations by various experts, to 1.8 or 1.9 percent per year.
“Renovation rate” is only about 1 percent of the housing stock
It is unclear where and how a six-digit number of new craftsmen and construction workers are to be recruited. “Currently, we are only able to achieve a refurbishment rate of one percent per year,” says Axel Gedaschko, President of the Federal Association of German Housing and Real Estate Companies (GdW). “And there is already a massive shortage of materials and skilled workers.”
43 million apartments in Germany
According to the Federal Statistical Office, there are a total of over 43 million apartments in Germany. The commonly estimated refurbishment rate of one percent would therefore correspond to over 430,000 modernized apartments per year. For an approximate doubling, an almost as high number of apartments would have to be additionally renovated every year.
However, there is no sign of a large wave of recruitment in the building trade. Instead, the current slump in housing construction is causing trouble for the industry. “We can clearly see that the construction industry will cut jobs on balance in Bavaria,” says Manfred Gößl, the general manager of the Bavarian Chamber of Industry and Commerce. “There are no signs that we are getting a boost from the external conditions.” Gößl is referring to the Free State, but the construction industry is not doing any better elsewhere.
Doubling of renovation rate not feasible
An immediate doubling (of the renovation rate) is “simply not feasible”, says GdW President Gedaschko. “Resolving something does not mean that it works in practice.”
As for the additional capital required, the calculations differ, but in any case the amounts involved are staggering. The background paper by the Federal Ministry of Economics mentions additional investments of 448 billion euros by 2045.
Climate neutrality through Cleantech
The Kiel-based working group for contemporary building came up with a much higher sum last year. “However, the costs make you a bit dizzy,” says ZDB general manager Pakleppa. So far, homeowners and housing companies have spent around 50 billion a year on energy modernization.
Based on the EH 115 standard – the previous old building standard – according to Arge Kiel, 110 billion euros per year would be necessary, says Pakleppa. “If you want to go to the EH 55 standard required by the Federal Ministry of Economics, we need 165 billion a year. That means that by 2045 it would be 3.4 or 3.5 trillion, so I want to be generous with the comma.”
Pakleppa emphasizes that he still considers the goal of climate neutrality to be achievable by 2045 – provided that the framework conditions, including state subsidies, are right.
Eco buildings are expensive, climate protection hardly affordable
However, almost all experts agree that things are by no means optimal at the moment and that, apart from the lack of skilled workers, significantly higher state subsidies would be necessary. “Just to meet the requirements of the Building Energy Act, an amount of around 61 billion euros would have to be invested in the housing companies organized in the GdW over the next 20 years,” says its President Gedaschko.
“The draft law currently only provides for support for owners. So far it has been completely open how tenants and landlords should be supported.”
The companies did not have the equity and liquidity to provide significant new construction, refurbishment and heating replacement. “This is a completely unacceptable situation for a country where almost 60 percent of households rent,” says Gedaschko. The GdW is not an association of real estate sharks, but the umbrella organization of housing cooperatives, municipal companies and other socially oriented landlords.
The experts at the Darmstadt Institute for Housing and the Environment (IWU) also consider significantly higher state subsidies than previously to be sensible or necessary. “In new buildings, the primary focus should be on legal regulations,” says IWU expert Andreas Enseling. “Funding can be used to support this. In the portfolio, we believe that a combination of significantly increased funding and expansion of carbon pricing would be best suited to achieve carbon neutrality goals.”