FROM OUR REPORTER
ALDEN (Iowa) — «Get excited!». It is no coincidence that Nikki Haley asked her supporters to show their enthusiasm when she appeared for her last rally before the caucuses, in a cabin in the woods, half an hour from Des Moines, presented as the future “first female president of the United States.” The Iowa Poll, an important poll published on the eve of tonight’s Republican caucuses, saw Haley in second place with 20% of the vote, distanced from Donald Trump at 48% and trailed by Florida governor Ron DeSantis with 16%, but showed also that only 9% of the supporters of the former UN ambassador said they were extremely enthusiastic about voting for her. At a temperature of -40 degrees centigrade would they have found the necessary motivation to meet at 7 in the evening to discuss and vote in a school gymnasium?
Haley was not hoping to beat Trump at this point, but was facing DeSantis for second place. Expectations for the Iowa caucuses had long been of a Trump victory, the doubt was what the margin over his rivals would be. If less than 50% they will define him as weak even though he will most likely have surpassed the record of 13 points from his rivals set by Bob Dole in 1996. But, beyond the rhetoric, the ex-president knows well that the further he distances himself from the others, the more he can try to close the primaries quickly and pocket the Republican nomination. Therefore, at the last rally in Indianola he wore the new “Iowa Caucus Captain” hat: a new gadget to sell but also an incitement to fans not to take victory for granted.
Haley is seen as an alternative by anti-Trump Republicans, and also has the support of some independents and Democrats. In the Alden chalet she tried to motivate voters by repeating that with her America would come back strong at home and abroad; he rejected the accusations of being a “neocon” and a warmonger (helping Ukraine “avoids the outbreak of a war between Putin and NATO”) and repeated that Trump, “rightly or wrongly, brings chaos” and it is time for a new generation of leaders who look to the future. If this morning’s results see Haley positioned well in Iowa (above 20%), the result will be encouraging. She will then aim for the primaries on January 23 in New Hampshire where both she and Trump are flying today. She then hopes for South Carolina, where she was governor.
Even DeSantis, while avoiding criticizing Trump too much, presents himself as a leader of the new generation. The Florida governor has slipped behind Haley in several polls in Iowa. A third place would be embarrassing in this state in which he has invested so much. He has visited all 99 counties, his volunteers have knocked on 930,000 doors, he has the support of Governor Kim Reynolds and evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats. The latter’s endorsement was so desired that the Politico website followed with bated breath what it called “the Vander Plaats primaries”, but in the end only 22% of Iowa evangelicals, according to polls, had switched to the side by DeSantis; 51% preferred Trump. «The former president has a record of success, he has done a lot for the evangelicals, but I think he constitutes the biggest obstacle to victory in 2024 – Vander Plaats told the Courier -. It is not a choice against Trump but for the new generation” (Vander Plaats added that, if Trump wins the nomination, he will vote for him).
All three contenders cite (sometimes dubious) polls that would show them winning against Biden. But the signs of nervousness were evident yesterday. Kevin, a wheelchair-bound Trump fan who came from Illinois to ask the candidates their positions on disabilities, was kicked out of a DeSantis event because he wore a hat from a pro-Trump radio show.