The Sino-Russian partnership is said to be “limited” cooperation. The picture shows on September 16, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) leaders summit in Samarkand. (Sergei Bobylyov/SPUTNIK/AFP)
[The Epoch Times, February 22, 2023](Epoch Times reporter Li Yan comprehensive report) A few weeks before Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, Beijing and Moscow announced the establishment of an “unlimited” partnership, sparking concerns in the West. However, the Russia-Uzbekistan war that has lasted for a year shows that whether the CCP supports Russia or tries to keep a certain distance from Russia on certain occasions, it is serving its own interests.
In early 2022, when Trump and Xi met in Beijing, they announced the establishment of an “unlimited cooperation” partnership to challenge the United States. A few weeks later, Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine, for which he was sanctioned by the West. Qin Gang, then the CCP’s ambassador to the United States, hastily clarified that there is still a “bottom line” in the relationship between the two countries.
However, Beijing has refused to publicly condemn the war, instead accusing the US of provoking Russia by pushing to expand the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
On the occasion of the first anniversary of the Russia-Uzbekistan war on February 24, Reuters analyzed that the war has posed various challenges to the Sino-Russian friendship.
The CCP Supports Russia Diplomatically
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, Beijing provided cover for Moscow in every aspect of diplomacy, and never condemned its “invasion” of neighboring countries, in line with the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin has called the war in Ukraine a “special military operation” aimed at protecting Russia’s own security.
In his State of the Union speech on Tuesday (February 21), Putin reiterated that Russia is fighting for survival and that the West is the chief culprit in igniting the war. U.S. President Joe Biden, who is visiting Poland, responded that the West does not seek to control or destroy Russia.
“The West is not plotting to attack Russia as Putin said today,” Biden said.
When the Russian army failed in the war, the CCP repeatedly called for “peace”, but Xi Jinping has always stood by Putin and resisted Western pressure on an isolated Moscow.
At the Munich Security Conference on Sunday (February 19), China’s top diplomat Wang Yi defended Sino-Russian relations, saying Beijing would never allow the United States to dominate the relationship between the two countries. The current Chinese foreign minister, Qin Gang, said publicly on Tuesday that “certain countries” were “fueling the flames” of the Ukraine war.
This statement is exactly the same as Putin accused the West of igniting and maintaining the flames of war in his State of the Union speech that day.
The CCP supports Russia with conditions
Analysts say China’s support of Russia has further exacerbated tensions with the West and hindered Beijing’s attempts to sow discord between the European Union and the United States.
“China (the CCP) is doing it for its own benefit, that’s all.” Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that the weaker Russia is, the more it is in the CCP’s interest .
With the economy hit by unprecedented sanctions from the United States, Europe and U.S. allies since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow is increasingly turning its exports, including oil, to China.
The CCP took advantage of the preferential discounts offered by Russia to purchase Russian oil in large quantities.
The average daily value of China’s crude oil imports from Russia rose about 45% between the Russian invasion and December last year, according to Refinitiv data.
The Financial Times reported that instead of condemning Russia’s aggression, China used Russia as a shield against growing competition with the United States.
Take the U.S.-China rivalry in the South China Sea as an example. China claims almost total sovereignty over the region and is concerned about the growing security presence of the United States in the region, which is committed to maintaining a free Indo-Pacific. Therefore, the CCP has been accusing NATO of “expansion” on NATO’s eastern flank, which Russia calls its backyard, in order to create conditions for it to oppose further US activities around the South China Sea.
Sino-Russian partnership ‘has an upper limit’
China has been trying to avoid providing Russia with support, including weapons, that would attract Western sanctions. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and EU leaders warned China again last weekend that it would face serious consequences if it provided lethal weapons to Russia.
If the CCP provides weapons to Russia, it may not only lead to the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war into a confrontation between China and Russia and the NATO military alliance led by the United States. , Beijing will be subject to secondary sanctions from the West, which it least wants to see.
Beijing has also sought to distance itself rhetorically from Moscow and has urged Putin not to use nuclear weapons. On the one hand, it can prevent its relationship with the West from going to the point of no return. On the other hand, it might be possible to prevent the Russia-Ukraine conflict from going to the point of a nuclear war in which the CCP does not benefit.
On the anniversary of the Russo-Ukraine war, China will announce a peace plan for Ukraine, making many European leaders wary of China’s intentions. “China has failed to condemn the invasion,” said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, adding that Beijing’s peace plan was “pretty vague” and that peace would only happen if Russia respected Ukraine’s sovereignty. possible.
Russia-Uzbekistan War Affects Taiwan Strait Issue
Beijing has repeatedly objected to linking the Ukraine war to its ongoing attempts to “unify” democratic Taiwan.
China’s foreign minister, Qin Gang, urged “some countries” on Tuesday to “stop the hype of ‘Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow,’” in an apparent allusion to the United States.
The Russia-Ukraine war has also heightened the West’s vigilance against the CCP. Both NATO and the United States have warned that China considers the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war one of the factors in its assessment of a possible Taiwan Strait war.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has repeatedly warned of the importance of not allowing Russia to win the war. “We also know that Beijing is watching closely to see what Russia pays for its aggression, or receives in return,” he said.
Euan Graham, a Singapore-based expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be much more sophisticated than a Russian attack on Ukraine, the Associated Press reported.
“Russia’s incompetence on the Ukrainian battlefield has to put any military or senior political leadership in China on hold for larger-scale adventures in Taiwan,” Graham said.
According to Reuters, Yun Sun, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center in the United States, said: “The outcome and cost of the war showed the Chinese that it might not be wise to invade Taiwan.” Therefore, Beijing’s chances of taking the initiative to attack Taiwan are smaller.
Responsible editor: Li Huanyu#