[Epoch Times, September 7, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Zhang Ting comprehensive report) Li Zhanshu, the No. 3 figure in the Communist Party of China, will visit abroad from September 7 to 17, starting with an economic forum in Russia. Analysis believes that Li Zhanshu’s visit this time has released four major signals to the outside world.
The four signals are that the CCP’s top leaders have begun to resume international travel; the CCP will not violate the sanctions against Russia but will not abandon Russia; Li Zhanshu may pave the way for Xi Jinping and Putin to meet at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization; Meanwhile, top CCP officials are trying to strengthen ties with neighboring countries through foreign visits.
According to the announcement of the Chinese Communist Party’s official media, Li Zhanshu’s 11-day foreign visits will be Russia, Mongolia, Nepal and South Korea, and he will attend the Eastern Economic Forum in Russia.
China’s top leaders resume international travel
Li Zhanshu, chairman of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, ranks third among members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the party’s highest authority, after Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang.
Li Zhanshu’s visit to Russia this week signaled that top Chinese officials are resuming international travel after a prolonged disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
Li Zhanshu will be the first member of the Politburo Standing Committee to visit abroad in two and a half years since January 2020. The last time was in January 2020, when Xi Jinping paid a state visit to Myanmar.
Li Zhanshu’s visit to Russia aims to show that the CCP will take a pro-Russian neutral position
Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Financial Times that it is worth noting that Li Zhanshu, the No. Economic Forum in Vladivostok (also known as Vladivostok).
Gabuyev said that while China may not risk violating Western sanctions to help Russia, the message of Li Zhanshu’s trip is that Beijing will never turn its back on Russia.
“If it’s neutral, then it’s definitely pro-Russian neutral,” Gabuev said.
The South China Morning Post reported that Chinese analysts believe that China, like most SCO members, will call for a ceasefire and peace talks, rather than openly expressing support for Russia in the Ukraine war.
Xi Jinping is expected to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s annual meeting in Uzbekistan.
“Facing an economic slowdown and other challenges at home, and an increasingly hostile environment abroad, the last thing China (China) wants at the moment is probably getting burned,” the analyst said. Instead, Beijing’s diplomatic priority remains to consolidate and Relations with neighboring countries that have been caught up in an increasingly hostile competition between China and the United States.
The United States has repeatedly warned China that it will face consequences if it helps Russia evade sanctions. The Associated Press also reported that there was no sign that China would be willing to give Russia substantial support at the risk of jeopardizing its own access to the U.S. and European markets. Even if Beijing wants to import more Russian gas and other goods, its ability to support Putin is limited.
Experts say Xi’s government is likely to support Putin within the limits of Western sanctions — a situation Chinese companies may use to seek better deals — but will not be willing to publicly violate sanctions and be the subject of punishment.
“China doesn’t want to get involved, and it doesn’t want to end up losing out on supporting Russia,” said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, as quoted by The Associated Press.
But in terms of propaganda, the CCP has always been in line with Russia’s position, condemning the West for imposing sanctions on Russia and helping Russia to carry out disinformation propaganda. In addition, the Chinese authorities have never expressed a clear position condemning Russian aggression.
Russian officials say this year’s Eastern Economic Forum will be different from the past due to Western sanctions against Russia and the growing importance of Russia’s Far East, Indian media outlet Asian News International (ANI) reported.
The news of Li Zhanshu’s visit to Russia has attracted much attention. He will become the highest-ranking CCP official to visit Russia since the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine under the guise of a “special military operation” comes just weeks after Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin declared in February that the friendship and cooperation between the two countries had “no limit and no ceiling.”
Li Zhanshu’s visit to Russia paves the way for Xi and Putin meeting
Li Zhanshu is expected to meet Putin on the sidelines of an economic forum in Russia, which could pave the way for Xi and Putin to meet at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on Sept. 15, the South China Morning Post said.
According to official announcements from the two Central Asian countries, Xi Jinping will travel to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan this month.
According to an announcement on the Uzbekistan government website, Xi Jinping will travel to Uzbekistan to attend the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a Eurasian political and security forum that will take place in Samarkand from September 15 to 16. ) held.
Xi Jinping is expected to meet Putin during the forum.
Li Zhanshu’s 11-day foreign trip aims to strengthen ties with neighbors as U.S.-China relations deteriorate
Li Zhanshu’s visit to Russia and other countries comes at a time when geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. are at their highest in 40 years, and they have become more tense since U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August.
Relations between China and Nepal have been strained this year as the United States tries to help Nepalis improve roads and power connections through a $500 million development project that Beijing accuses of dividing its Asian neighbors.
Nepal abandoned its security partnership with Washington in June.
Current affairs commentator Li Linyi said that Li Zhanshu’s visit to Russia, Mongolia, Nepal and South Korea was a defensive move by Xi under pressure from the United States and the West to strengthen ties with neighboring countries. Can form a front to unite against the United States. The most interesting point here is that, from the perspective of the ranking of the four countries, Russia is anti-US, Mongolia and Nepal are neutral, and South Korea is slightly pro-US.
Li Linyi also said that the CCP and Russia are now at the point of death. Although the two countries still have differences on some issues, the only thing that needs to be political is to be anti-American; for Mongolia, the CCP needs to open up the future of Russian natural gas transmission with it. China’s pipeline; the CCP plans to build a railway across the Himalayas with Nepal in the future; South Korea is the biggest attraction, because now South Korea is sandwiched between the United States and China, and it is somewhat unstable.
“I believe that for the CCP, Li Zhanshu’s visit to Russia and participation in the Far East Forum is just a matter of routine; Mongolia and Nepal should be a courtesy visit; it should be noted that Li’s remarks in South Korea, as well as the response.” Li Linyi said.
Responsible editor: Lin Yan#