BEIJING – The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who flies to India to thank New Delhi for not judging the crisis in Ukraine from a single perspective but “in the entirety of the facts”, with Moscow ready to discuss new oil supplies to the nationalist government of Narendra Modi and an alternative to the Swift for rupee-ruble payments: it is significant that Lavrov met directly with the Indian prime minister, a privilege that Modi had not granted to any other foreign minister visiting in recent weeks (not even the Chinese Wang Yi). The Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan – a good friend of both the Russians and the Chinese but New Delhi’s main rival – who, on the eve of the vote of no confidence in Parliament, denounces the United States of wanting to dismiss him. Beijing which, after yesterday’s summit with the European Union, says it wants to push for peace talks on the Ukrainian crisis “in its own way”, while it has already tried to woo the Indians last week to get them away from the West and he is working hard to gather consensus on his ambiguous balancing act with the so-called countries of the global South: a front of non-aligned people that he hopes to be able to expand, against war but in favor of Moscow. In a world that is once again sculpting itself in opposing blocs – a “new, more just international order”, hoped for by Lavrov in a conversation with the Chinese Foreign Minister a few days ago – the ambiguous neutrality of many countries equates more and more to support for Putin. And it is in Asia – or at least a good chunk of it – that the cards seem to be reshuffled.
India is at the center of this new game, pulled by the jacket of its ten-year impartiality. A member of the Quad (the alliance which also includes the United States, Australia and Japan) did not condemn the Russian invasion. In recent years it has rejoined the US – in an anti-Chinese key – but has excellent relations with Moscow, a partner of China, from which it buys oil and weapons (again as a deterrent against Beijing). However, precisely with the Chinese, with whom he shares the balancing act on the Ukrainian question, despite many mistrust (the situation tense at the borders, the areas of influence that the two contend such as Nepal and Sri Lanka and the friendship that China has with Khan’s Pakistan, a key partner of the Silk Road) has begun to talk again. Not a small diplomatic stunt. “China and Russia are seizing the opportunity offered by India’s reluctance to join the West in condemning the invasion to entice it to greater political cooperation,” he writes. Raja Mohan his Foreign Policy. For historical reasons and geopolitical intertwining, however, it will not be a walk in the park, at least for New Delhi-Beijing relations.
After having tested the stability of their western borders on an Asian mini-tour (which led to Wang Yi in Islamabad, Kabul, New Delhi and Kathmandu), Beijing’s activism is growing during this crisis. “China is greatly increasing its efforts with the countries of the global South: it is diversifying its scope of action”, he tells Republic Francesca Ghiretti, analyst of Merics, one of the most important think tanks on Chinese issues. Since March 18, Wang has already met 25 representatives of as many countries – especially Asian – not too critical of Moscow, to avoid being attracted to the “American camp”, while pressing on Indonesia so that there is no talk at the next G20 in Bali of Ukraine. “Two thirds of the world population lives in countries that are neutral or that support Russia over war”, reads the latest report from the Economist Intelligence Unit. “In the coming years Russia and China will devote their efforts to courting them.”
After the EU-China summit on Friday, Ghiretti is pessimistic about the Chinese role in the Ukrainian crisis: “No progress. The Chinese communiqué was published long before the conversation ended. As if to say: this is our script and this we will follow. How far can this ambiguity go? They could go on forever. Even if their backs are cornered – and this time will come – China will never admit that by doing so it is actually facilitating Moscow’s positions, and therefore will continue to do so. pretend nothing happened and repeat the same things “.