The epidemic hits another record, but the negative impact may be difficult to sustain
——Weekly follow-up of the epidemic resumption of work (1Month 8day)
Focus discussion:The epidemic hits another record, but the negative impact may be difficult to sustain
The global pandemic continues to climb on record, OmicronThe proportion of newly diagnosed cases globally has exceeded half; however, severe illnesses and deaths remain low.Under the influence of the Omicron variant, the epidemic situation in many countries is still showing a linear upward trend. New additions in Europe and the United States continue to set historical records. The epidemic situation in emerging markets such as India and Indonesia has also begun to rise sharply this week. In the case of a sharp increase in the number of infected people, due to the vaccine protection and the characteristics of the Omicron variant itself, the severe illness rate has not risen significantly, but due to the relatively high absolute scale base, it has also caused a certain pressure on the medical system.
Take the United States as an example. Although the current pressure on the medical system has not reached the level of “bedless treatment” during the Delta outbreak last year, the utilization rate of hospital beds due to new coronary pneumonia in the United States has now risen to 17.6%, exceeding the high point last summer. ; In a small number of states, the occupancy rate of hospital beds and ICUs exceeds 90%, but it is also better than the situation when the Delta epidemic broke out last year.
It can be seen from the high-frequency data that the escalation of the epidemic has brought some disturbances to economic activities.Although the US CDC has shortened the isolation time for asymptomatic infections from 10 days to 5 days[1], But the rise in cases still caused the absence of personnel in some positions.For example, the berthing time data of the Los Angeles Port, the United States, which has been declining since the end of November, began to rise again at the end of December. New York City announced the suspension of three subway lines. The Federal Aviation Administration stated that “more and more” employees diagnosed this may cause Flight cancellation or delay[2]Wait.The U.S. Department of Labor said that in December, about 1.7 million employed laborers were absent from work due to illness when the epidemic was less severe than in January.[3]According to the current situation of the escalation of the epidemic, the data in January may be even higher.
but,We don’t think it’s appropriate to extrapolate this situation to the limit. We don’t expect this negative economic impact to last for a long time.For the following reasons:
1) Judging from South Africa, where the current cases have begun to continue to decline, OmicronThe process of the epidemic from the outbreak to the peak may last 1A month and a half to 2Months or so.In early January this year, the continuous record high of cases and economic disturbances in Europe and the United States may continue for some time, and may still affect economic performance in January, including supply chain repair and employment. However, based on the experience of South Africa and Fauci’s recent statement that the US has this round of Omicron The forecast that the epidemic may peak around the end of January[4]This effect may be temporary, and it must also be considered that the proportion of vaccination in South Africa is significantly lower than that of major developed countries.
2) In terms of severe illness and mortalityAlthough the number of new diagnoses in the current round of the epidemic is very high, the mortality rate has not risen but fallen, and its direct impact is much smaller than Delta. If further consideration is given to the lack of detection and the underestimation of the number of confirmed diagnoses, this ratio may be even lower.In addition, because Omicron is more contagious and even dominates in some areas, it may provide protection against other mutant strains.[5]。
3) 12The monthly employment data is actually more optimistic than pessimistic, which partly reflects the continued recovery of the labor market.Due to the inaccuracy of seasonal adjustment of statistical data during the epidemic, non-agricultural data have been revised significantly in recent months (the initial value of non-agricultural data in the United States will be adjusted twice in the next two months after the release of the initial value, and 194,000 people in September (Up to 379,000 people, from 531,000 people in October to 648,000 people, and from 210,000 people in November to 249,000 people). The leisure hotel industry with the largest gap is still the largest contribution of non-agricultural new employment. In addition, although the overall labor force participation rate was flat, the unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly to 3.9% (3.5% in February 2020), which was close to the pre-epidemic level. The elderly and women whose labor force participation rate was previously affected also increased in December.
The FDA has approved the use of booster needles in children aged 12 to 15 years[6]In addition, judging from the data on newly diagnosed and vaccination at various ages, the number of newly diagnosed people with a higher rate of vaccination and those with a lower rate of vaccination but younger is currently lower. In this case, if the epidemic is at the end of January If it can reach the top, there is still room for family labor and elderly labor to raise children. In addition, the previously announced improvement in the employment index of ADP employment and ISM sub-items may also confirm this point.We think this may also be the 10-year U.S. Treasury after the employment data was released on Friday.interest rateOne of the reasons for the upward move again.
4) Vaccines and specific drugs are still important means of epidemic prevention.According to data from Israel, after the vaccine and booster vaccination reach a certain level, new diagnoses can remain low for a period of time.Currently, the newly confirmed cases in Israel have broken again. Although facing controversy, the country is considering a fourth dose of vaccination.[7]In order to get out of the normalized anti-epidemic model, based on the experience of Israel, a high proportion of vaccination is still effective as a whole. In addition, the speed of production and promotion of approved specific drugs is also crucial, and may become the breaker of the current anti-epidemic model.
Epidemic: New diagnoses worldwide continue to hit new highs, with Omicron accounting for more than half
Newly diagnosed cases worldwide continue to hit new highs, OmicronAccounted for more than half, but the death toll remained low.The world’s daily average number of newly diagnosed cases continued to rise to 1.89 million per day, among which Europe and North America, the most severely affected, were 920,000 and 640,000 respectively, but the death toll is still falling.
According to our estimates, the Omicron variant has accounted for more than half of the new diagnoses globally. Among them, the UK, France, and the US accounted for 96%, 80%, and 80%, respectively. It became the dominant variant and was once troubled by the surge in Delta. Germany, which had eased as of last week, also rose this week, with Omicron’s share rising to 14%. The average daily number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States, France, and the United Kingdom rose to 600,000, 210,000, and 180,000, respectively. The number of hospitalizations and ICUs increased, but the death data remained relatively stable.
The epidemic in emerging markets has also deteriorated.In addition to Turkey and Argentina, where cases surged last week, the epidemics in India, Indonesia, and Mexico also began to rise this week, but Russia continued to decline.
Vaccines: The speed of vaccination in Europe and the United States has fallen, China has slowed, and India has speeded up; children’s vaccination has been strengthenedFDAApprove
Under the influence of holiday factors and decreased willingness to travel, the vaccination rate in most developed markets continued to decline this week.The speed of vaccination in Europe and the United States has declined. The average daily dose in the United States has continued to halve compared to last week to 43 doses per day. The FDA has approved the use of booster injections in children aged 12 to 15 years.[8], Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom also declined slightly. Emerging markets such as Mexico and Brazil also declined, China’s average daily vaccination also declined slightly, but India increased. In terms of vaccination ratios, as of January 7, the proportions of fully vaccinated populations in China, the United Kingdom, and the United States reached 84%, 70%, and 62%. From the perspective of booster vaccination, China, the United Kingdom and the United States accounted for 8%, 51% and 22% of booster vaccination respectively.
Opening up to work: minor repair of offline data
Affected by the epidemic, although the data this week has been slightly restored compared with last week, it is still lower than the level before January. Among them, the catering and box office repairs are better, but the number of people returning to work, bus travel and TSA security checks is still relatively low. More measures have been implemented in European countries.The British Prime Minister said on the 4th that he has the opportunity to survive this round of the epidemic without closing the country, but it is recommended to work from home as much as possible; Germany has relaxed travel restrictions on southern African countries such as the United Kingdom and South Africa, and the restrictions that have been implemented are mainly for those who have not been vaccinated. People with vaccines; French restrictions are stricter, including bans on concerts, bans on eating and drinking in public entertainment and transportation, and re-working remotely if possible[9]。
(Source: Kevin Strategy Research)
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