The beginning of spring, with its implicit message of rebirth, coincided with a particularly stormy week for Europe in the fight against the coronavirus. On the one hand, the third wave of Covid-19 is manifesting itself across the continent, with new lockdowns in France, Italy and Poland. On the other hand, the suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine by several EU countries, to restore it a few days later, created confusion and embarrassment, ending up increasing doubts about the appropriateness of vaccinating among the layers of public opinion that were already more skeptics. “Europe’s faltering vaccination campaign creates an image of agitated leaders, getting their nerves jumped as the pandemic worsens,” summarized the picture this morning by a Financial Times investigation.
There’s no two without three
In the last week, the incidence rate (number of cases per 100 thousand inhabitants) has continued to rise, with an increase of 34% on the continent according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (Ecdc). The updated map is almost all red. In the latest aggregate data published by the center, as many as twenty EU countries record an increase in the number of daily infections, often combined with an increase in the positivity rate. Two indicators that already result in a strong impact on hospitals. Fifteen EU countries, according to the ECDC report, have seen an increase in hospital admissions and beds occupied in intensive care units. “The absolute values of the indicators remain high, suggesting that transmission is still widespread,” experts from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control write.
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The third wave is not homogeneous across the EU. Since January, the first two countries affected by this third rebound have been Spain and Portugal, which have recorded a very high peak of their epidemic curves, following that of the United Kingdom, with a few days of lag. An increase in cases has also begun in Germany at the turn of the holidays, but not as exponentially as in the United Kingdom or the Iberian Peninsula. The same is true for Italy and France where infections have begun to increase but progressively, on an ever higher “plateau”.
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“We have been in an extremely unstable situation for two months now,” notes Guillaume Rozier, French data analyst, who created the popular CovidTracker site. “While for the first two waves of spring and autumn the curve rose to a peak and then fell, this time there is no surge.” Rozier insists on the difficulty of making comparisons between the various EU countries, where there is not the same test strategy (France is one of the few that offers free, non-prescription tampons for everyone). And it is also difficult to judge the approved lockdowns between Italy, France or Germany. “The restrictions adopted by the governments are different, but also and above all the respect on the part of the citizens”.
Come on, pianissimo
The third wave coincides with a vaccination campaign that goes on very slowly. The delay of the European Union compared to other industrial democracies is reflected in an indisputable fact reported by the Financial Times: while until six months ago there seemed to be the United States and Great Britain in the eye of the storm, today the situation appears to be reversed, with 40 vaccine doses administered for every 100 inhabitants in the United States, 34 per 100 in the United Kingdom (where in fact more than half of the British population has already received at least one dose, taking into account that citizens under the age of 16 will not be vaccinated), but only 12 out of 100 in the EU.
The decision to discontinue the AstraZeneca vaccine could not have come at a worse time, various experts agree. Numerous European countries are in the midst of what appears to be a new wave of the virus, the third, fueled by the so-called “English variant”, more aggressive than the initial form, as the Spanish newspaper El País is known today among others. Poland, Italy and much of France have been forced to shut down everything again, Germany will likely have to revise its plans to restart activities. “The economic recovery is paused”, writes the City newspaper, “while the fear of another lost summer grows, with the risk of paralyzing the southern European countries more dependent on tourism”.
The sensational delay in the vaccination campaign in EU countries, combined with the restrictions to fight the third wave adopted in several countries, risk making Europe lose the train of recovery. A few days ago, after the spending plan approved by Joe Biden, the OECD revised upwards the global forecasts on GDP growth of the United States and most of the G20 countries. Not for the eurozone countries. “In Europe, due to the delay in the vaccination campaign – observes Laurence Boone, chief economist of the OECD – there are still many restrictions on activity, the economy is still very slow and unemployment begins to increase slightly despite the social safety nets. . The more time is lost, the more the economic and social cost increases ”. This year the eurozone will grow by 3.9%, with differences between Germany (3%), France (6%), Italy (4%). “These are growth rates that allow us to partially recover from the fall recorded in 2020 – continues Boone -. While the United States will already be able to say that by the autumn it has filled last year’s growth loss, Europe will do so. only at the end of 2022 “
Endless controversy
Behind the suspension of AstraZeneca serum by some European governments, the Guardian and the New York Times wrote, there are reasons more political than scientific: the fear of spreading even more doubts among large sections of the population who are per se skeptical about vaccines in general. “It is true that if AstraZeneca’s vaccinations were allowed to continue, that 5-10 per cent of the no-vax population would have risen,” comments Professor Beate Kampmann, director of the Vaccine Center at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, one of the most advanced university faculties in the world in this field. “But the position of governments would have appeared clearer to the majority of the population. Launching a message of doubts rather than certainties has favored the no-vax ”.
As if that were not enough, notes the British financial daily, Ursula von der Leyen has chosen this week to threaten a blockade of vaccine exports to the United States and Great Britain to ensure greater supplies to European countries. A “noise of sabers”, says the FT investigation, which divided the European capitals: “In a closed-door meeting of EU ambassadors, some warned that the threat could backfire on the Union”. Jacob Kirkegaard, an analyst at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, notes that the timing chosen by the president of the European Commission for her attack is “at least strange”, because von der Leyen could have rather spread a positive message about vaccine reserves, having just received the good news that the EU expects to receive 360 million doses between April and June, despite the diminished supply of AstraZeneca. “The whole issue is driven by domestic political motivations,” Kirkegaard told the Financial Times.
The case of Germany
The reference is especially direct to the government of Angela Merkel, in particular to her Minister of Health Jens Spahn. The origin of the decision to suspend the AstraZeneca vaccine, the City newspaper accuses, comes from Berlin and in particular from Spahn’s excess of caution. An “incomprehensible” decision, defines Katrin Goring-Eckardt, leader of the Greens in the German Parliament, “which has produced chaos and uncertainty throughout the country”. The health expert of the Social Democratic Party, Karl Lauterbach agrees: “The damage caused by discontinuing the vaccine, even if for a short time, is greater than the damage that would have occurred if rare complications had occurred”, an allusion to the few dozen cases of thrombosis on 17 million doses of AstraZeneca that triggered the decision to suspend. In three Scandinavian countries, Norway, Sweden and Denmark, however, the administration of AstraZeneca has not resumed even after the green light on Thursday from the European Medicines Agency, pending “more information” on possible side effects.
Christian Drosten, director of the Institute of Virology of the Charité Hospital in Berlin, is another expert who criticizes the approach of the German government, of which he is himself one of the top advisers on Covid: “A politician or a minister should recognize that there is an ongoing pandemic and take into account the damage that results when people do not get vaccinated just as a third wave of the virus arrives ”. But Health Minister Spahn, and more broadly Merkel’s Christian Democratic party as a whole, is under pressure six months into the election over the mismanagement of the vaccination campaign and the prospects of an extended lockdown, notes the investigation of the FT, and the defeat suffered by the CDU in the regional elections last Sunday has increased the problem. Politics, not medical science, would thus have slipped into the European response to the coronavirus, already criticized for the delay in approving vaccines, the unclear contracts with pharmaceutical companies and the method to administer them quickly and massively.
“They wanted to follow the rules to the letter”, summarizes Professor Kampmann of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine about the decisions of Germany, “but in my opinion they followed the wrong rules”. France is also indicated by the FT as one of the perpetrators, recalling the skepticism expressed by President Macron about the AstraZeneca vaccine, which he described as “almost ineffective” on the elderly, only to change his mind. “This week has been extremely damaging to the European Union, bringing out contradictions that the EU usually overcomes better than it is now,” concludes Rosa Balfour, director of the Carnegie Europe think tank. “The impression is that everyone is scrambling to blame others and hiding their responsibilities. It seems that there is not enough trust and that no one is really in charge ”.
In short, the winter of Covid could not have ended worse in Europe. We hope that spring brings a change of season.
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