[Current Affairs and Military]NATO intelligence flow qualitative attack on Poland | Russo-Ukraine War | Article 5 of NATO Military Alliance Treaty | Missiles

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Once the artillery fire of the Russia-Ukraine War spreads to NATO countries, it may trigger Article 5 (Mutual Defense Clause) of the NATO Military Alliance Treaty, dragging NATO into direct conflict and leading to escalation of the war. On November 15, a missile hit a farm in Przewodów, a Polish village about five miles from the Ukrainian border, killing two people. The incident tested the efficiency of NATO’s emergency response mechanism and intelligence work.

Officials in Poland, the United States and other NATO countries said there was growing evidence that a faulty Ukrainian surface-to-air missile may have caused the casualties at the Polish farm. However, more specific circumstances remained murky, with both Ukrainian and Russian authorities blaming the other’s missiles for the incident.

When the incident occurred, Ukraine was suffering from a large-scale nationwide attack by Russian missiles, the main targets of which were Ukrainian power facilities, including Lviv near Poland, which is also the area where the incident occurred.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said anti-aircraft missiles fired by Ukrainian forces in response to a massive Russian attack shot down Russian missiles, one of which landed in Poland. There are indications that neither side intends to do so on purpose.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said initial analysis indicated the incident was likely caused by a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile launched to defend Ukrainian territory from Russian cruise missiles, which targeted eastern Poland. The explosion bears ultimate responsibility. He said there would be no emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors under Article 4 of the alliance until an investigation into the incident was completed. Article IV of the NATO agreement stipulates that when any member of NATO believes that the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any ally is threatened, NATO member countries should jointly consult on this.

It was unclear which type of missile crossed the border and hit the Przevodo farm. Some people say that judging from the debris seen in the images of the launch site, it may be the 5V55 missile used by the S-300.

Russian authorities have so far denied such an attack and have condemned the allegation that one or more Russian missiles hit the Polish farm as a provocation.

The Russian Ministry of Defense emphasized in a statement that the high-precision attack will only target targets located in Ukraine, and the distance from the Ukrainian-Polish border will not be less than 35 kilometers. The footage of the missile wreckage released by Poland on the evening of November 15 has been identified by professionals of the Russian defense industry complex as components of Ukraine’s S-300 air defense missile.

Both the Ukrainian and Russian armies use the S-300 missile air defense system. Russia is also increasingly using such anti-aircraft missiles for ground attack to cover its embarrassing ammunition stockpile, although these missiles are far less accurate in their ground attack capabilities than dedicated systems.

The range of the S-300 air defense missile is generally less than 150 kilometers, and at most no more than 400 kilometers, while the range of the 5V55 is even shorter, less than 50 kilometers. If the missile that landed in Poland is a 5V55, then it is very unlikely that it belongs to Russia. Because the Russian army in the occupied area is too far away from the accident site, it is impossible to attack there with anti-aircraft missiles.

If the wreckage of the missile belongs to a surface-to-surface missile, then there is a high probability that Russia did it. If other reports of two missiles hitting the same location in Poland are true, it is more likely a deliberate attack by Russia. This is hard to explain as a misfiring, since the attack error without modern cruise missiles would be tens of kilometers, and the probability of two wrong missiles hitting the same target by chance is even lower, unless the missile targeting data is entered incorrectly.

The question is what motivated Russia to deliberately attack Poland. There is no strategic reason to test NATO’s bottom line in this risky way. Even if Russia’s bet pays off, NATO is afraid to activate the alliance’s mutual defense clause if a NATO country is attacked in order to avoid the threat of war in the rest of Europe. So, can Russia take a big fight against Poland or other European countries that support Ukraine? Very unlikely. Russia is basically incapable of opening up a second front in the event of a defeat in the Ukraine war. Unless Moscow believes that the current military pressure is not strong enough, or that NATO’s involvement will facilitate its occupation of Ukrainian territory, neither of which is true.

Both NATO and Russia have reasons not to want the war to spread across Europe. Neither the United States nor the West seems to want to trade the price of NATO countries being attacked for an early end to the war. They might prefer to see Russia caged in Ukraine, slowly draining it of its wildness and making it a less important player in the future. In the eyes of the West, this may be the lowest-cost solution, so it will not take the initiative to escalate the war.

From Russia’s point of view, even if the special military operation in Ukraine is defeated, it is nothing more than a disaster caused outside Russia, sacrificing individual responsible persons, and Russia’s green hills are still there. But if the war escalates, while the flames of war spread to other European countries, Russia itself will also be involved. Unless Putin decides to break the can, or even take the whole of Russia as a backstop. But if he wants to do this, he may not be able to do it. Now the voices against Putin in Russia are getting louder and louder, and there are even voices saying that Putin should be executed.

US Secretary of Defense Austin said at a press conference on November 16 that we have full confidence in the Polish government’s investigation into the bombing and we will not overstep their work.

The reason why the United States has confidence in the investigation of the Polish bombing is that NATO forces are fully capable of tracking and recording the missile that landed in Poland, helping to verify who and where it was launched. E-3 Sentinel Early Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft operated by the U.S. Air Force and other NATO members, aircraft regularly conducting intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions in the region, and various ground-based radars may have recorded Various data about this missile can be obtained, and this information can be used to analyze the details of this missile.

We have noticed that so far, NATO has not announced the details of the missile attack, but it has given basic factual judgments and characterizations, which shows that the information NATO has is sufficient to draw conclusions. No details have been announced, and NATO should consider it, because the details may only be to clarify whose missiles caused the incident, Russia or Ukraine, and what is more critical is the judgment of the motive. NATO has come to a conclusion on the nature of this incident. This is not a deliberate action, and the fundamental responsibility lies in the aggressive war launched by Moscow.

An obvious result of this conclusion is that it will not trigger Article 5 of the NATO alliance, and naturally it will not lead to a sudden escalation of the war. This is the result that the United States, the West and even Russia hope to see.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in response to the missile attack on November 16 that terror is not limited to our borders. Russian missiles hit Poland. This is a major escalation, and we must act.

From Ukraine’s standpoint, NATO’s direct involvement will help end this unprovoked and painful war as soon as possible. But the West seems to prefer Ukraine to speak on the basis of facts. The West has adopted a tolerant attitude towards Zelensky’s unique remarks, because after all, the recognized robber is still putting a knife on him.

Even if it turns out that Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles were the direct cause of the incident, the relationship between Ukraine and NATO will not be affected by this. NATO has taken the coalition’s position that Russia is the real culprit anyway. This would not have happened at all if Russia had not fired missiles at Ukraine.

In this incident, NATO has shown that it is capable of responding to contingencies with deliberation. Demonstrates the critical role of NATO’s intelligence flow and helps avoid possible future miscalculations.

Written by: Xia Luoshan (a reporter from The Epoch Times, who has experienced more than ten years of military life, mainly engaged in military teaching and some technical management work)
Production: Current Affairs Military Production Team
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