Article information
- Author, Jane Corbin
- Role, Da BBC News
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January 24, 2024
The “Doomsday Clock”, which shows how symbolically close the world would be to an apocalypse, will continue to mark 90 seconds to midnight — the same “time” as last year.
The scientists responsible for the project listed the reasons why the hands are still close to “Judgment Day”.
The threat of a new nuclear arms race, the war in Ukraine and concerns about climate change are the main factors, they say.
The clock is adjusted every year by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists; midnight represents the limit for the apocalypse.
Since 2007, scientists have been considering the impact of new man-made risks such as artificial intelligence (AI) and climate change, as well as the biggest threat of all: nuclear war.
In the “adjustment of the hands” of 2024, made on Tuesday (23/01), the bulletin said that China, Russia and the US are investing huge amounts of money to “expand or modernize their nuclear arsenals” — the which adds to the “ever-present danger of nuclear war due to miscalculation”.
The war in Ukraine has also generated a “permanent risk of nuclear escalation”, the scientists said.
The report also cites the lack of action to curb climate change and the risks associated with the “misuse” of emerging biological technologies and artificial intelligence tools.
The Doomsday Clock was created in 1947 by Robert Oppenheimer and other American scientists who developed the atomic bomb.
Two years earlier, at the end of World War II, nuclear bombs dropped on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki had left devastating effects.
The scientists’ intention in creating the clock was to alert the public and pressure world leaders to ensure that nuclear weapons were never used again.
The hands of the clock have moved 25 times throughout history. In 1947, they started at seven minutes to midnight. By the end of the Cold War, in 1991, it had dropped to 17 minutes to midnight.
The president of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Rachel Bronson, told the BBC that “all major countries, including the United Kingdom, are investing in their nuclear arsenal as if nuclear weapons could be used for a long time.”
“This is a very dangerous time…leaders are not acting responsibly,” Bronson said.
Pavel Podvig, a Russian nuclear weapons expert who has been involved with the Doomsday Clock project for many years, says he was shocked when Russian President Vladimir Putin put nuclear forces on alert after the invasion of Ukraine.
The world reacted with horror to the Russian leader’s threat, but it appears that this was a deliberate calculation by Putin.
“That’s exactly what nuclear weapons are for — to make sure you have a certain amount of freedom of action,” says Podvig.
“The Russian president believed that by making these statements he could dissuade the West from intervening in Ukraine, which was a correct calculation — that’s how deterrence works.”
Despite decades of arms control agreements, there are still around 13,000 nuclear warheads worldwide, 90% of them Russian and American. Six other countries are considered nuclear powers: the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan and North Korea.
Israel is believed to possess these weapons, but this has never been officially confirmed. Most modern nuclear weapons are many times more powerful than those that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
In 2021, the United Kingdom increased the maximum limit on its warheads from 225 to 260. The country’s nuclear force is on high alert.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, senior figures in Russia have suggested that Moscow’s nuclear weapons could be used against the United Kingdom.
The UK’s nuclear deterrent facilities are located in the west of Scotland at the Faslane base, which is home to four Vanguard submarines carrying Trident missiles armed with nuclear warheads.
Photo caption,
HMS Vigilant, one of the United Kingdom’s Vanguard submarines
Feargal Dalton, a former lieutenant who served aboard the submarine HMS Victorious, is one of the few people to have actually fired a Trident missile: a test missile with a dummy warhead.
“There is always a [submarino] somewhere out there, with 15 minutes’ notice to fire,” says Dalton. “Right now, there is a nuclear deterrent. The Vladimir Putins of the world know it exists, it is real and we could use it if necessary.”
Since the atomic bomb was created, there has been opposition to these weapons.
In the 1980s, British women created a peace camp network called Greenham Common Peace Camps, which fought for all US nuclear missiles to be removed from UK soil – they were removed entirely in 2008.
Photo caption,
British women protest against nuclear weapons
At the British Air Force base in Lakenheath, a group called the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) is still protesting against the possibility of the return of US weapons.
Pentagon documents — first reported by the Federation of American Scientists — suggest that “special” US weapons will be positioned at the base.
US fighter planes capable of delivering these weapons arrived at Lakenheath in 2021. Now there are plans by the United States Air Force to build dormitories for its troops to serve in a potential nuclear mission at this location.
“We know we have public opinion on our side,” says CND’s Sophie Bolt, as her small group chants slogans near the base.
“Almost 60% of the population do not want nuclear bombs to be installed in the UK.”
Photo caption,
The British Lakenheath base houses American fighters
“We have nothing to do with this base, it is completely under US control,” said Alan Wright, another protester.
“If they put [Donald] Trump [na Casa Branca] in the next election and he pushes the button just because he has a bigger button than Putin — then we will be a target.”
Former president and candidate Donald Trump said he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of being elected, although he did not explain how. Some analysts believe that, in the scenario of the Republican’s victory, US support for Ukraine could decrease.
Over the past decade, fears of nuclear war have also been fueled by Kim Jong-Un, leader of North Korea, the latest nation to join the nuclear club. He boasted about testing nuclear-capable missiles that could reach the United States.
Former Bulletin of Atomic Scientists member and Doomsday Clock advisor Sig Hecker has visited North Korea’s nuclear facilities seven times as part of a scientific research program and estimates that the country could have 50 to 60 warheads nuclear.
“Nuclear weapons, nuclear terrorism, nuclear proliferation — it’s all going in the wrong direction,” says Hecker.