Xinhua News Agency, Brussels, November 16th (International Observation) EU launches new sanctions against refugees on the border of Belarus and the crisis escalates
The foreign ministers of EU member states convened a meeting on the 15th to focus on the issue of refugees on the border with Belarus. Representatives of the participating countries agreed to impose new sanctions on Belarus. Belarusian President Lukashenko said on the same day that he is working to repatriate refugees stranded on the country’s border with Poland, but if the EU imposes a new round of sanctions on Belarus, Belarus will counteract it.
Analysts pointed out that Western countries have previously imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Belarus. The new sanctions may increase tensions between Belarus and the West and further escalate the refugee crisis.
More sanctions brewing
The European Union’s high representative for foreign and security policy Borelli said on the 15th that the new sanctions against Belarus will target some individuals and entities, and specific measures will be announced in the next few days. European media reported that sanctions may include airlines and travel agencies that transport refugees. At the same time, the United States also indicated that it will coordinate with the European Union to impose more sanctions.
The refugee crisis between Belarus and neighboring countries has appeared since August this year. A large number of refugees from the Middle East entered Western European countries such as Germany through Belarus and entered neighboring countries such as Poland and Lithuania. With the increasing number of refugees at the border, the local situation has recently become increasingly tense. The EU accused Belarus of transporting refugees to the EU border and forcing them to enter the EU illegally. But Belarus denied this and stated that it was Western sanctions that caused it to be unable to control the flow of refugees.
Western countries in Europe and the United States have so far imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Belarus. Among them, since October last year, the European Union has imposed four rounds of sanctions on the grounds of fraud in the Belarusian presidential election in August last year, involving 166 individuals and 15 entities. The sanctions are mainly travel bans and asset freezes. After the Ryanair incident in May of this year, the EU banned all Belarusian flights from flying over EU airspace and entering EU airports in June, and imposed targeted economic sanctions.
Fear of reaching the goal
Although the EU is trying to put pressure on Belarus through sanctions, Clara Portela, a political science expert at the European Union Security Institute, said that the idea that sanctions can change the behavior of the target country is incorrect.
Although Belarus has faced several rounds of sanctions before, according to Belarus News Agency, Belarus’s GDP increased by 3% from January to August this year, and its foreign trade surplus exceeded US$2 billion. In response to possible new EU sanctions, Lukashenko issued a threat on the 11th that if the EU expands the scope of sanctions, Belarus will cut off Russia’s natural gas transportation to Europe.
At the same time, Luis Ogg, a reporter for the “EU Reporter” news website, believes that Western sanctions will not only have a great impact on Belarusian related personnel, but will also push Belarus to Russia.
In fact, Belarus has recently strengthened its ties with Russia. Lukashenko had a telephone conversation with Russian President Putin on the 9th regarding the refugee crisis. There are also some recent military actions between the two countries. On the 10th, two Russian strategic bombers and the White Air Force jointly performed patrol missions in the white airspace. On the 12th, the two armies also conducted a joint combat mission exercise in Belarus.
In addition, Poland and some Western countries also targeted Russia when dealing with the refugee crisis, and listed it as the mastermind behind the crisis together with Belarus. The Russian side responded that the root cause of the refugee crisis is that Western countries have destroyed the refugees’ countries of origin, not Russia and Belarus. Analysts pointed out that the West’s simultaneous pressure on Russia and Belarus will only push the two countries closer to each other.
Internal contradictions are highlighted
In this refugee crisis, although Poland and Lithuania, which are on the front line, use the European Union as their backing, their conflicts with the European Union have also become prominent in the process of handling the crisis. The two countries hope to restrict immigration by building a “separation wall,” but the EU has long refused to fund the wall for political and humanitarian considerations. Only recently has it “relaxed” under pressure.
In addition, Poland also opposes the EU’s intervention in its handling of border refugees. The Polish government has declared a state of emergency in its border area with Belarus. According to European media reports, the Polish side has repeatedly rejected Germany’s border protection assistance proposals, and does not allow media reporters or even personnel of the European Border Agency headquartered in Warsaw to travel to the border areas, ignoring the request of the European Court of Human Rights to provide support at the border. .
According to the relevant EU regulations, member states should work closely with the European Border Agency to jointly implement decisions related to the repatriation of refugees. But Yurva Johansson, a member of the European Commission responsible for internal affairs, has so far failed to visit the Polish border area. The EU has called on relevant member states to ensure that those stranded at the border receive the necessary care and assistance.
Currently, diplomatic actions to resolve the refugee crisis are underway. German Chancellor Angela Merkel had a phone conversation with Putin and Lukashenko on the 11th and 15th, French President Macron also had a phone call with Putin on the 15th, and the Belarusian Foreign Minister Mackie and the European Union Foreign and Security Policy Senior on the 14th The representative of Borelli talked on the phone. The Russian side has expressed its willingness to mediate the refugee crisis, and the White side also expressed the hope that the crisis will be resolved as soon as possible.
However, analysts believe that the latest decision of the EU to impose additional sanctions on Belarus has increased the tension between the two sides. In addition, it is difficult for the EU to exert effective influence on Belarus’s neighbors to ease the border situation. It is difficult to say whether these diplomatic efforts can achieve results in the short term.