Executive summary:The current situation at home and abroad is complex and changeable, and the uncertainty of economic development is rising. How to scientifically judge the current economic situation and what should be done in the next economic work? Yesterday, the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee gave a clear answer – the epidemic must be prevented, the economy must be stabilized, and development must be safe. This is the clear request of the CPC Central Committee. The meeting made a series of specific and important arrangements, responded to market concerns in a timely manner, pointed out the way forward and injected strong confidence and strength for our efforts to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development throughout the year.
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The current situation at home and abroad is complex and changeable, and the uncertainty of economic development is rising. How to scientifically judge the current economic situation and what should be done in the next economic work? Yesterday, the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee gave a clear answer – the epidemic must be prevented, the economy must be stabilized, and development must be safe. This is a clear requirement of the CPC Central Committee. The meeting made a series of specific and important arrangements, responded to market concerns in a timely manner, pointed out the way forward and injected strong confidence and strength for our efforts to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development throughout the year.
On April 29, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work, and make a series of major arrangements for striving to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development throughout the year. The meeting emphasized that the epidemic must be prevented, the economy must be stabilized, and development must be safe. This is an important decision and deployment made at a critical moment by the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core to coordinate the domestic and international overall situation and the development of security. clearly requested.
Dong Yu, Executive Vice President of Tsinghua University’s China Development Planning Institute, said: “This meeting is a very critical meeting held by the central government at a critical period for the economy. It is expected to stabilize the market, stabilize the economy, and achieve the goal of realizing the whole year. The goal of economic growth is of great significance.”
Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China and an economist, said: “The goal is very clear, that is, the epidemic must be prevented, the economy must be stabilized, and development must be safe. To stabilize the economy, we must strive to achieve our expected goals. To achieve this, under the premise of determining the target, the policy is required to be repositioned and readjusted.”
The clear requirements of the Party Central Committee are based on the correct judgment and grasp of the current complex situation at home and abroad. The mutated strain of Omicron has spread in many places in China, and the crisis in Ukraine has led to increased risks and challenges. The complexity, severity and uncertainty of my country’s economic development environment have increased, and stable growth, stable employment, and stable prices are facing new challenges. In the first quarter of this year, China’s economy had a stable start, which was hard-won. However, judging from the main economic data of the three months, it was high before and then low.
Liu Yuanchun said: “The first change comes from the repeated outbreak of the epidemic, which has been hit in many ways, and these shocks are mainly concentrated in some economically developed regions; the second is that the entire external environment has become more complex and severe, especially the Ukraine crisis. It directly leads to the rise in the value of commodities, which leads to worsening global inflation, which intensifies the impact of imported costs. Of course, we will also see a comprehensive shift in U.S. monetary policy, further deterioration of geopolitics, and changes in the internal and external epidemic environment. There have been many unexpected changes in the external environment.”
Dong Yu said: “In addition to some new situations this year, for example, the increase in the number of college graduates this year is the highest in recent years, and for example, we have to prevent the food crisis, which will have an impact on the domestic economic situation. At the same time, we To prevent the continuous decline in the profits of some industries and some companies due to the instability of the industrial chain and supply chain, the operation of the market entities on the opposite side will have a relatively large impact. Therefore, it is precisely because I saw these problems mentioned before, As well as new situations and new problems, the central government has taken targeted measures in a timely manner.”
In the face of new situations and new challenges, the Party Central Committee has clearly demanded that the epidemic must be prevented, the economy must be stabilized, and development must be safe, fully reflecting the guidance of the system concept and bottom-line thinking. Focusing on “preventing the epidemic”, the meeting emphasized that it is necessary to efficiently coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development according to the new characteristics of virus mutation and transmission, unswervingly adhere to the people’s first, life first, adhere to external defense import, internal defense rebound, Adhere to “dynamic clearing”, protect people’s lives and health to the greatest extent, and minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development.
Dong Yu said: “It is very targeted to propose efficient coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic development. Efficiency is to achieve maximum results at the least cost. That is to say, we must prevent the epidemic in time, at the initial stage. We should bring the epidemic under control in time to prevent the spread of the epidemic, and at the same time accelerate the resumption of work and production.”
To stabilize the economy, we must stabilize policies. The meeting focused on stabilizing the macroeconomic market and made a series of important policy arrangements. The meeting called for intensifying the adjustment of macro policies, speeding up the implementation of the policies that have been determined, planning for incremental policy tools, and grasping the advance and redundancy of policy-oriented policies.
Liu Yuanchun said: “Not only should we speed up the rhythm in terms of existing policies, but more importantly, we should do a good job in the entire increment. For the key issues that everyone is concerned about, there should be specific measures.”
Dong Yu said: “Doing a good job of calculating the amount of policy advance does not mean that all policies should be introduced at one time, not to pile up all at once, but also to prevent the superposition effect of policies and bring about diminishing marginal effects. That is to say , the amount of advance and redundancy is actually to grasp the timeliness of the policy introduction must be accurate, whether it is the timing of the introduction or the intensity of the policy.”
Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said: “This actually reflects a bottom-line thinking. We must fully consider the new difficulties and challenges we are facing, make forward-looking plans, and plan ahead. At the same time as the flood irrigation and strong stimulus, a targeted plan to strengthen the incremental policy was introduced.”
To stabilize the economy, domestic demand must be stabilized. Expansion of domestic demand is the strategic basis for building a new development pattern, but at present, there are insufficient inventory items for effective investment in some places, and it cannot be used vigorously. At the same time, some consumption policies introduced at the same time lack transmission paths and transmission tools, resulting in an insignificant effect of stimulating consumption. The meeting proposed that efforts should be made to expand domestic demand, play a key role in effective investment, and play a leading role in the economic cycle of consumption.
Liu Yuanchun said: “So this time it is called to go all out, that is to say, faced with these major problems of expanding domestic demand, we must try every means to overcome it. Overcoming it requires us to innovate in policy tools. The space for some policies should be used enough, and we should not worry too much. In addition, we do need to create some new areas, so that we can have a strong point and a grasp of the expansion of domestic demand.”
Strengthening infrastructure construction in an all-round way is an important starting point for the full expansion of domestic demand emphasized at this meeting. A few days ago, the 11th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission discussed the issue of comprehensively strengthening infrastructure construction, calling for speeding up the construction of new infrastructure and improving the level of traditional infrastructure. Moderately ahead, the layout is conducive to leading industrial development and maintaining national security infrastructure, building a modern infrastructure system, and laying a solid foundation for building a modern socialist country in an all-round way.
Dong Yu said: “Comprehensive strengthening of infrastructure construction is a fundamental long-term measure. Under the current situation, when combined with the current economic situation, it has a very important meaning.”
Liu Yuanchun said: “It has the effect of expanding domestic demand for the present, and has a very basic introductory effect for the future, which can reduce some costs of future investment, so that the future growth foundation, investment foundation and social operation will be in one. on a new plane.”
To stabilize the economy, it is necessary to stabilize people’s livelihood. Employment is the foundation of people’s livelihood, and the number of college graduates this year is the largest in history, reaching 10.76 million. The meeting emphasized the need not only to stabilize employment, but also to expand employment. Focusing on stabilizing employment, the meeting emphasized the need to stabilize market players and implement a package of relief and assistance policies for industries, small, medium and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households that have been severely affected by the epidemic. More than 150 million market players are the key to ensuring employment, people’s livelihood and stabilizing the economy.
Liu Yuanchun said: “We have been fighting the epidemic for two years, and providing key assistance to these enterprises and groups is particularly important for the stability of the fundamentals of the entire internal circulation, because if large-scale unemployment occurs, consumption will drop significantly. The core of employment lies in stabilizing market entities and our ability to grow, so these stabilizations complement each other, and the key touchstone is the stabilization of employment.”
Stabilizing prices is also a key link in stabilizing the economy and safeguarding people’s livelihoods. Focusing on price stabilization, the meeting made a series of arrangements in the supply of important livelihood commodities, smooth transportation and logistics, food and energy security, ensuring the normal operation of key industrial chains and supply chains, and key infrastructure. Although according to statistics, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 1.1% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, indicating that the overall price level is relatively low, however, due to the Ukrainian crisis, the global commodity prices continued to rise, and inflation in the world‘s major economies continued to be high. Sexual inflation is transmitted to the country through trade and other channels, bringing certain pressure to stabilize prices.
Guo Liyan said: “The international crude oil price has been oscillating at a high level, so that the price of refined oil products in China is transmitted to the consumer price end. This is the first quarter of this year, especially in March, a month-on-month increase in the CPI. With this At the same time, it may be affected by the spread of the epidemic and the logistics blockage in some individual areas. The prices of some livelihood commodities such as vegetables that need to be transported across regions fluctuate to a certain extent, such as automobiles, integrated circuits, etc., which need to be carried out nationwide. For some supporting industries, some of its key components are affected by logistics blockages and stuck points, which are some new pressures and challenges arising from the current price stabilization.”
Liu Yuanchun said: “This problem has been very clear in the past two months. If the epidemic will continue for a period of time, we must take precautions before it occurs. For the supply chain industry chain of key commodities, for the sowing of agricultural products, it is necessary to It is highly valued, so this year, ensuring the smooth flow of energy, materials, and supply chains is actually similar to maintaining the price level to some extent.”
Development must be safe, which is also a clear requirement of the Party Central Committee. The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to effectively manage and control key risks and keep the bottom line of no systemic risks. Faced with hot issues such as the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, the stable operation of the capital market, the rectification of the platform economy, and the stabilization of the fundamentals of foreign trade and foreign investment, which are generally concerned by the society, the meeting has made clear responses, effectively stabilizing social expectations and boosting market confidence. Regarding the platform economy, the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to promote the healthy development of the platform economy, complete the special rectification of the platform economy, implement normalized supervision, and introduce specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of the platform economy.
Liu Yuanchun said: “The rectification of the platform economy in recent years has been very clear at this Politburo meeting. It is pointed out that the rectification of the platform economy must be completed, and at the same time, it is necessary to support and regulate the healthy development of the platform economy and normalize the supervision of the platform economy. Therefore, these few sentences The weight of words is very heavy, indicating that in the wave of innovation, we must further support it in the process of overtaking the digital economy, and of course, we must regulate it at the same time. I feel that this Politburo meeting revolves around the prevention of the epidemic and economic needs. The three major goals of stability and development require security, and comprehensive policy deployment has been carried out, which is of great significance to the stability and long-term development of China’s economy.”
This meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized that leading cadres at all levels should have a sense of responsibility to “always be at ease” in their work, take responsibility for their actions, seek truth and be pragmatic, and prevent all kinds of “black swan” and “grey rhino” incidents from happening. The more difficulties and obstacles you face, the more determined you must be to do your own thing well. As long as we always maintain a sense of crisis and urgency, strengthen our confidence, face difficulties, work hard, and effectively deal with external “uncertainties” with the “certainty” of China’s reform and development, we will surely be able to achieve economic and social development throughout the year expected goal.
Original title: Focus Interview: Preventing the Epidemic and Stable Economic Development