[Foresight Quick Review]”Battle” between drones on both sides of the Taiwan Strait? | Cross-Strait | CCP UAV | Tsai Ing-wen

[Epoch Times, September 1, 2022]Hello friends, today is August 31 (Wednesday), welcome to “Foresight Quick Review”, I am Tang Jingyuan.

When we discussed with you before that when the Taiwanese media said that Li Shang Xi could not be defeated, we once said that at least part of this revelation is reasonable, that if Xi Jinping seeks re-election, annexing Taiwan will definitely be a condition he put forward to the party. Therefore, once he achieves his purpose of re-election, preparations for the invasion of Taiwan will definitely be put on the agenda.

In recent days, the frequent occurrence of CCP drone harassment incidents in Kinmen finally took a qualitative change yesterday: the defenders of Kinmen of the Republic of China opened fire for the first time, and the sound of gunfire broke the decades-long tension between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Peace. And after this shot was fired, the situation did not stop. Today, the CCP’s drones continue to harass, and the National Army has not hesitated to continue shooting warnings, and shooting has become the new normal.

In other words, after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, a new round of fierce competition emerged between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, making the entire Taiwan Strait once again the focus of worldwide attention.

Today, we will first talk to you about the ins and outs of this matter, and then discuss its direction and impact.

According to the official statement of the Taiwan Army Kinmen Defense Command (referred to as the Jinmen Defense Department), it was the Kinmen Erdan Island that was first found to be infested by “civilian” drones on the afternoon of August 16. During the period, officers and soldiers on duty identified and dealt with them according to regulations , notification and other disposal procedures; the surrounding rest officers and soldiers spontaneously threw stones and disturbed, and the drone flew away immediately.

Subsequently, the video footage captured by the drone quickly went viral on mainland social media platforms. Since the drone used a long-range zoom lens to shoot the Kinmen defense area at a high altitude, the equipment and expressions of the national army sentries were clearly seen, including the scene of the sentry throwing stones, so it quickly became a reader in the mainland community. hot spot.

On Weibo, the topic labeled “Taiwan Army Soldiers Throwing Stones at Mainland Drones” has reached 240 million views, and the topic “People’s Liberation Army drones took pictures of Kinmen sentry posts” has more than 80 million views.

Below the relevant reports of the CCP’s official media, mainland netizens have left a large number of comments, most of which are ridiculing the soldiers of the Chinese army by throwing stones in response. For example, one of the popular comments scoffed: “They don’t even dare to shoot.” Another popular comment was sarcastic: “The Strawberry Army is so powerful that it throws rocks so high.”

Not to mention that in the mainland, even in Taiwan, many people are dissatisfied with the response of the national army. Chen Yuzhen, a member of the Kuomintang Kinmen legislator, criticized that Kinmen Erdan Island is a military fortress, whether it is ordinary people or Chinese drones , “As long as there is no offensiveness, they should be shot down immediately, otherwise it will affect the morale of the people,” and said the reaction to the national army was “unbelievable and incomprehensible.”

Why didn’t the army shoot? The official statement is that the harassment of civilian drones is only the CCP’s “cognitive warfare”, which is commonly referred to as information warfare and psychological warfare, and does not pose a substantial threat. Of course, I think there may be another reason why it is inconvenient for the Taiwan side to say, that is, there may be strict regulations within the military that cannot shoot civilian targets on both sides of the strait without authorization, so as to avoid worsening the situation. Because in the peaceful environment that has lasted for decades on both sides of the strait, civilian ships and personnel have crossed the border for various reasons, and rash shooting may lead to unnecessary escalation of conflicts.

But the problem now is that after the CCP’s policy toward Taiwan has shifted to the so-called “armed reunification” track, behaviors such as drone harassment have the nature of official instigation and systematic assault, which is completely different from incidents in the past. Therefore, on the one hand, the national army did not shoot to avoid giving the CCP a pretense and to tolerate it. On the other hand, it was also because the form of civilian drone harassment was relatively rare in the past, and the military did not have a complete plan for the handling process. As a result, the Sentinels had to respond by throwing stones.

Therefore, yesterday, when President Tsai Ing-wen of the Republic of China expressed his condolences to the garrisoned troops in the Penghu area, he publicly stated that the national army would not let the other side have improper excuses to create conflicts, and the national army would not provoke a war. The army will not fight back. She has ordered the Ministry of National Defense to take necessary and strong countermeasures in a timely manner to safeguard the security of national airspace.

As soon as this speech came out, the defenders of Kinmen immediately opened fire yesterday.

Yesterday around 4:23 pm, in areas such as Kinmen Dadan, Erdan, Shiyu and other areas, the sentinel detected the harassment of 3 batches and 3 sorties of CCP civilian drones entering the country, and fired a signal bomb to warn, and the drones then flew back to Xiamen. More than an hour later, at 5:59, another drone entered the air above the control area of ​​the Erdan area again. The national army warned again according to the procedure, but the drone ignored it and continued to circle, so the sentinel immediately responded to it. Live ammunition was fired, and the drone flew away in the direction of Xiamen at around 6 o’clock.

Today, the situation continues to escalate. Between 6:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. local time, the Kinmen defenders found three batches of three sorties of civilian drones in the Dandan Island, Caoyu and Lieyu areas respectively. The nearby garrisoned troops were notified.

Taiwanese drones arrive directly at the Xiamen military base

Not only that, just like the saying in the past called “come and don’t go indecent”, today’s Taiwanese drones also take off from the Kinmen Mashan Observatory and arrive at the CCP’s military base in Xiamen Jiaoyu. The same aerial view, The only difference is that the video released by the CCP codes the flag of the Republic of China, while the Taiwan side does not treat the blood flag of the CCP equally.

We can see the video footage showing that when the CCP soldiers found their heads covered by the drone, they immediately dispersed, not even daring to throw a stone.

To paraphrase Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for the CCP’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “the drone of the Republic of China flew over the territory of the Republic of China. .

On the surface, it seems that the use of civilian drones on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to cross the border to check each other is somewhat of a joke, because everyone knows that this has no substantial value in military intelligence. But friends who are familiar with the CCP’s methods may know that this time, the drone attack and defense, especially the gunshots of the national army, can be said to have declared the end of an era and the beginning of another era.

From the very beginning, the CCP has been good at tricks, regardless of the military and civilians

We all know that since the beginning of the CCP, one of its tried-and-true tricks is that the army and the people are not divided. Often miraculous.

The essence of this approach, to put it bluntly, is to create a huge gray area between war and non-war. You can freely switch between black and white, but your opponent is often at a loss. Behind this incomprehension, the CCP is actually taking advantage of the opponent’s minimum humanity and the moral bottom line of the opponent’s inability to shoot at civilians to gain an asymmetric advantage to disintegrate the opponent’s defense. This is actually a play that undermines the bottom line of human morality.

Over the decades, the CCP’s use of this tactic can be said to have reached the level of perfection. We have seen that whether it is the dispute with Japan over the Diaoyu Islands, or the entire South China Sea, rushing to the front line to provoke disputes, making it unbearable and difficult for the relevant countries to turn their faces, without exception, all are so-called private fishing boats.

The usefulness of this approach is that once it succeeds, the CCP can gain actual political and military benefits, and if it fails, the CCP can easily cut it. Don’t underestimate this method of the CCP. There are so many islands and reefs in the South China Sea, and the relevant countries have great disputes over their sovereignty. The CCP took the lead by relying on fishing boats, and finally occupied and controlled many important islands and reefs step by step. It was successfully militarized within a few years.

Therefore, don’t underestimate the CCP’s military-civilian integration strategy. The harassment of civilian drones in Kinmen seems to be just a kind of psychological warfare. In order to incite the little pink war sentiment, the long-running Communist Army’s propaganda campaign destroys the prestige of the national army. . But in fact, this approach involves psychological warfare, but it goes beyond that, it has a very strong military intent.

The lasting peace between the two sides of the strait was broken by the CCP with the sound of gunshots

On the one hand, the use of civilian drones to invade and harass can test the response of the national army. As I mentioned just now, the reason why the national army fired was because Tsai Ing-wen made a decision. I believe the CCP knows this well and knows who has the authority to shoot the national army. Therefore, this tactic is actually testing Tsai Ing-wen’s reaction to see if Tsai Ing-wen is really what she said. So tough.

If Tsai Ing-wen just protested and did not dare to take drastic measures, there is no doubt that there will be more civilian drones invading in groups in the next step. Anyone who is concerned about the Ukrainian war may know that the Ukrainian army’s use of civilian drones to throw high-explosive bombs is a very mature tactic, which has caused a lot of damage to the Russian army. Relevant videos are on Twitter and Facebook. Books and other platforms are everywhere.

So, if the national army cannot effectively deal with these three or two drones, what will happen when the CCP releases hundreds of drones carrying high-explosive ammunition to launch an attack in the future? In other words, this test is not only political, but also military.

For Taiwan, whether they like it or not, in the next few years, they may have to face such harassment and testing on a regular basis, and the intensity may become more and more intense, the methods will become more and more diverse, and the methods will also be changed. increasingly intrusive.

This is the case in the field of international relations. Shooting or not shooting is often due to a special accident, but as long as the gun sounds, it means that the bilateral relationship has entered another state. Once this layer of paper is pierced Now, just like switching on a switchman at a fork, the train will go in a completely different direction, and the difference between these different directions will get bigger and bigger over time.

From this perspective, we can say that the lasting peace on both sides of the Taiwan Strait has been unilaterally broken by the CCP, and turmoil, friction and even conflicts will inevitably increase. Taiwan does not have many choices. Facing a rogue like the CCP, appeasement and avoidance of war will not only give you no dignity, but also never get peace.

Speaking of the end of an era, by the way, Gorbachev, who was decisive in ending the Cold War and ending the Red Empire of the Soviet Union, died of illness yesterday at the age of 91.

The reason why I want to talk to you about him is not just because the first and last president of the Soviet Union played the role of a switchman at a critical moment. As we said, it was because of his switch, The Soviet Union was on the road of disintegration, and the entire region of Eastern Europe, which had suffered from communist dictatorship, regained freedom and dignity.

I want to talk about Gorbachev, the bigger reason is because the CCP is using him as a negative teaching material to consolidate its red totalitarianism step by step. It gave China a “political vaccine“. In fact, the vaccine did not hit China, but the CCP.

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the CCP organized a huge force to conduct repeated research on this major event, with only one purpose: how to avoid repeating the same mistakes and avoid the disintegration of the CCP. The most direct reason why Deng Xiaoping wanted to promote reform and opening up, let the CCP rich first, and loosen the ties of private enterprises and private capital, was that he saw that the Soviet economic model had no way out.

Xi Jinping’s biggest misunderstanding is that the disintegration of the Soviet Union is a technical problem

The most direct reason why Xi Jinping denounced Gorbachev and said that after the disintegration of the CPSU, no man stood up to save the party, was because he did not see that the political model of the Soviet Union had no way out, so he had to turn around , not to learn the lessons of the Soviet Union’s market-oriented reform and the incomplete reform of the political system, but to learn in reverse, to curb Deng Xiaoping’s half-baked marketization, and then politically move towards complete totalitarianism.

He believes that this is the way to learn the lessons of the Soviet Union, so as to avoid the disintegration of the CCP. Therefore, Gorbachev actually formed a wonderful antagonistic relationship with Xi Jinping, and he took almost all of Gorbachev’s measures in the opposite direction.

He thought that this would save the CCP, and not only him, but also many people at the top of the CCP thought the same way. They felt that the Soviet Union’s economy was not good, and Gorbachev’s political methods were too weak, which led to the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The current CCP’s economy is much better than that of the Soviet Union, and it has a leader with strong means and a monopoly of power and power that everyone tries to keep the ship from sinking. It is impossible to repeat the mistakes of the Soviet Union.

This is Xi Jinping’s biggest misunderstanding. He has always regarded the disintegration of the Soviet Union as a technical problem, insisting that the Soviet car fell off a cliff because Gorbachev, the driver, was too poor in skill and in poor condition. Therefore, as long as you find a driver with better skills and try to get some money to improve the condition of the car, you will be able to avoid the tragedy from happening again.

The disintegration of the Soviet Union was the wrong way

He didn’t know that the root cause of the disintegration of the Soviet Union was actually because the road went wrong. The end of the road was a cliff. No matter who drove it, no matter what car, as long as the direction and road remained unchanged, the outcome was doomed. For the CCP, the better the driver’s skills, the faster the acceleration, the better the car’s condition, the higher the efficiency, and the faster the death.

Therefore, Gorbachev’s original choice was actually the choice of the road. Although it took time and cost to go back because of the wrong road, at least the direction was right. Russia has been reduced to where it is today. It is precisely because Putin has returned to the old road of dreaming of returning to the Soviet Union, and it is precisely because he has come closer to the CCP.

The reason why the CCP has come to this day is that we see that there are still many people trapped in this huge misunderstanding, believing that the CCP’s problem is just a bad driver, as long as you change the driver, try to improve the economy and repair the car’s condition, then you can Avoid a repeat of the tragedy of the Mao Zedong era.

This logic is exactly the same as Xi Jinping believes that he can save the CCP.

Speaking of this topic, I suddenly remembered an allusion of Tang Taizong Li Shimin. The allusions say that Tang Taizong already knew that Li Chunfeng and Yuan Tiangang, the authors of “Tui Bei Tu”, were proficient in astronomy and arithmetic, so he summoned them to calculate the national fortune of the Tang Dynasty, and asked a question: Who is the one who disturbed the Tang Dynasty?

Li Chunfeng echoed back that the people who devastated the Tang Dynasty had already been born, and now they are in the palace. In 30 years, she will kill the descendants of Li surnamed to the ground. Tang Taizong said you tell me who he is, and I will kill him immediately.

Then Li Chunfeng answered such a sentence, he said: This is the will of God that cannot be violated. If His Majesty kills this person now, God will bring down even more terrible disasters. At that time, I am afraid that none of the descendants of the surname Li will be able to keep them. What kind of person Tang Taizong is, of course, he understands the key to the benefits as soon as he hears it. In the end, he just sighed and let it go.

Whether this allusion is true or not is not the point of what we want to say. The point is that this allusion tells us a truth: sometimes what we think of as bad results may not necessarily be the worst. Move, you think that you can avoid the disaster, but you may end up with a bigger and more tragic disaster.

The current CCP is in such a state, and the disintegration of the CCP in the future will probably be a hundred times more thrilling than when the Soviet Union disintegrated. The reason is very simple, the CCP has done everything, they don’t give themselves the slightest leeway, so when it collapses, it will definitely not gain any leeway.

Okay, that’s all for today, thank you for watching and listening, see you next time.

“Foresight Quick Review” Production Team

Responsible editor: Li Hao#