[Foresight Quick Review]Russia negotiates sky-high prices to deeply analyze the root cause of the war | Russia-Ukraine War | Putin | Ukraine

Hello friends, today is Monday, March 7th. Welcome to Vision Quick Review. My name is Tang Jingyuan.

Today’s focus: Putin listed 5 major conditions, asking for sky-high prices to colonize Ukraine? One letter reflects the root cause of the war; the CCP used a knife to kill people, and half of the four major calculations failed; experts saw through NATO’s mistakes 20 years ago.

The war of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has hit today, and the public’s awareness of the war is gradually deepening. Today, we are going to discuss several hotly debated topics, such as why Putin repeatedly claimed that “Ukraine is not a country”; why the United States and the United Kingdom agreed to give Ukraine security guarantees in Budapest but refused to send troops to defend Ukraine; They are motivated to support Putin, what benefits can they get, and so on.

Only by discussing these issues clearly can we see clearly what the future trend of the Russian aggression against Ukraine will be. Let’s start today’s topic with the latest third round of negotiations.

[Russia-Ukraine third round of negotiations Putin’s sky-high asking price]

The third round of negotiations is taking place today and has just concluded. Earlier on March 5, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tried to seek direct support from NATO in the conflict between the two countries, which would not help the two sides negotiate. He was referring to Zelensky’s constant calls for NATO to establish a no-fly zone in Ukraine’s airspace, but neither the US nor NATO supported it, for one simple reason: establishing a no-fly zone could lead to a direct conflict between NATO and Russia, which could lead to an escalation of the war for the third world war.

And just earlier today, Kremlin spokesman Peskov said that Russia had informed Ukraine that it was ready to “immediately” stop military operations if Kyiv met four conditions.

The four conditions are that Ukraine ceases military operations; amends the constitution to achieve neutrality; recognizes Crimea as Russian territory; and recognizes the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.

At 9 a.m. ET, Russia and Ukraine officially started the third round of negotiations. Before the negotiation, a relatively reliable Western media source revealed that in addition to the four points just mentioned, the premise that Russia must reach is that it can recognize Zelensky as president, but Russia must appoint a pro-presidency. Boyko, a Russian man, is the real prime minister.

Zelensky is said to be unsurprisingly rejecting this.

So far, the third round of negotiation between the two sides has ended, and there is still no substantive result on related issues. There is only a little result in improving the logistics and transportation of the humanitarian relief corridor. If it goes well, this humanitarian corridor will start tomorrow. run.

As far as the general situation of the war is concerned, the two sides are still deadlocked on the battlefield, each with their own advantages. Ukraine can be described as single-mindedness of the military and civilians, high morale, and huge international social, economic and military equipment assistance; and Putin, relying on the huge scale of military power, although the blitzkrieg plan went bankrupt, but still wants to gradually nibble forward with strength advantages, and plans to win Kyiv sooner or later, even if eventually Can not occupy the entire territory of Ukraine, at least half of the country can be owned.

Without major progress in the military, it is difficult to gain an advantage in negotiations, which is the same for both sides. Therefore, if the negotiations break down, the two sides will inevitably usher in a more intense offensive and defensive battle over the control of Kyiv.

[“Z” and Putin’s Great Russian Empire Complex]

For a long time, there has been a very popular view in the public opinion field that it is the continuous eastward expansion of NATO that stimulated Putin, which led to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and taught him a lesson. But in fact, we see that Putin’s actions against Ukraine have gone far beyond the scope of the lesson, and his goal is more like to control or even occupy the entire Ukraine.

To clarify this issue, we have to start with a logo.

In the war of Russian aggression against Ukraine, we often see the logo of “Z” or “V” on Russian tanks in relevant videos or photos, especially the “Z” letter is the most representative. This logo not only appeared on military vehicles, but the Russian army also used the badges of the killed Ukrainian soldiers in the shape of the letter Z to show off their military exploits.

The non-military civil support for Putin’s fanatical group “Putin Guardian” also uses it as its own logo, and Russian gymnast Ivan Kuliak recently posted it on his own at the award ceremony of the World Cup in Doha. On the chest, even terminally ill children in hospice care have the letter shape in the snow.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense once publicly explained on Instagram, it said: The “Z” letter is the result of the conversion of Russian to English, which means “for victory”.

Whatever it means, the symbol has now become a symbol of Russia’s new ideology and national identity, as well as a symbol of Russian support for Putin’s invasion. This confirms from one side that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not just a simple geopolitical factor of NATO’s eastward expansion.

Let’s take a look at a set of data: According to an independent poll conducted by the European Parliament News Agency and Russian opposition political activists, as of February 26-28, nearly 60% of Russians support Russia’s war on Ukraine and oppose it. only 34%. After the war, nearly 50% of Russians have a better view of Putin, and only 23% have a worse attitude towards Putin.

Although we have seen continuous anti-war demonstrations in dozens of cities in Russia, and at least 4,000 people have been arrested, it is probably an objective reality that the majority of Russians support Putin. Why does this happen?

Of course, there is media control and brainwashing behind this. For example, a woman living in Kyiv told her parents in Russia that civilians were being bombed and killed, but her parents refused to believe that military operations would not harm civilians.

But the more important reason is that the historical and cultural connection between Russia and Ukraine has created a deep-rooted concept, which makes many Russians think that Ukraine should be integrated with Russia. This is why Putin has repeatedly said that Ukraine is not a country. origin.

Back in 2008, Putin told then US President George W. Bush: “You have to understand, George, Ukraine is not even a country.”

Why would he say that? It is because in the concept of many Russians that the three parts of Great Russia, Belarus and Little Russia (Ukraine) together constitute the concept of “Russian people”, they all branched out from the ancient Rus centered on Kyiv in history. derived from leaves.

But in modern times, the nationalist movement for Ukrainian independence was born from the 19th century and continued until the end of the Soviet Union. During this period, the movement for independence was strong and weak, but it never disappeared. Although Russia and Ukraine once belonged to the same country for a long time, and the Ukrainian language and culture have many intersections with Russia, many people in the eastern Ukrainian region have dual identities, thinking that they are both Ukrainian and Russian, but overall, Ukraine still has own independent culture, language, history and identity.

Especially after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Ukraine’s integration into a wealthy and free Europe by joining the European Union has become mainstream public opinion. However, this gradual departure from the Russian model of political, economic and social development is regarded as a betrayal by those with Russian imperial complexes represented by Putin. It can be said that the independent consciousness of the Ukrainian nation and Putin-style thinking of the Russian Empire are the main ideological roots of the Russian-Ukrainian dispute.

Putin has been saying that Ukraine is not a country since 2008. Until this speech before the war, the same thread and repeated the same words were repeated. This is the well-known Putin’s “Ukraine has been how it has been since ancient times” ‘s origin.

[Three documents establish the legal status of Ukraine’s sovereignty]

But we all know that history is not eternal. No matter how deep the historical origins between Russia and Ukraine are, the modern international community has already established a fairly mature and complete international legal system for the determination of a country’s sovereign status, which has been generally recognized and followed by almost all countries, including Russia itself. the rule of.

Although Ukraine was a country that was officially independent after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in December 1991, in 1991 Russia, Belarus and Ukraine announced the establishment of the Commonwealth of Independent States “Belovedh Agreement”, signed in 1994 “Budapest Security Memorandum” Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons and obtained security guarantees from the United States, and the “Kharkov Agreement” signed between Russia and Ukraine in 2010 resolved the historical issues left over by the two countries regarding the Black Sea Fleet and bases. The key legal basis for resolving the Russian-Ukrainian dispute.

That is to say, Ukraine’s legal status as a fully independent sovereign state is universally recognized, including the United Nations and Russia itself. This is by no means something that Putin can overturn by saying that it belongs to us since ancient times, but objectively, Putin This Great Russian Empire complex is quite representative in Russia.

Although Putin himself is quite ideologically aware of the scourge of communism, this does not mean that he rejects the great-power chauvinism of the Soviet era. As early as 2005, Putin said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century. On March 2, 2018, at the “All-Russian Popular Front” meeting held in Kaliningrad, when Putin was asked: “If you could go back to the past, which thing in Russian history would you like to change”, he was This is the answer: “I want to prevent the collapse of the Soviet Union”.

As you can see, this is what we call Putin’s imperial complex. It can also be seen from the sky-high asking price put forward by Putin in this negotiation, especially Russia’s designation of a real-power prime minister, which shows that Putin’s ultimate purpose for Ukraine is not only to launch a military attack to punish the disobedient Ukraine and warn NATO, but To de facto colonize Ukraine.

From this perspective, we can say that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a huge gamble in the Russian version of the so-called “great national rejuvenation”. This may be the greatest common divisor of why he and Xi Jinping can reach a mutual utilization relationship, and why the CCP’s The propaganda immediately maps Ukraine today to the foothold of Taiwan tomorrow: today the CCP supports Putin’s invasion, and tomorrow Putin must support the CCP’s invasion. Both sides want to use this to subvert the international order in Europe and the Indo-Pacific respectively, and rebuild the international order in their minds. new order.

This factor is the most important factor behind Putin’s blatantly launching the war of aggression against Ukraine. Why did Xi Jinping make a major change in his position on the Ukraine crisis after his meeting with Putin at the Winter Olympics, from being neutral in the past to openly supporting Russia? Why has the CCP so far refused to publicly condemn Putin’s actions as a blatant aggression, but instead supported Putin economically and diplomatically, including domestic public opinion guidance? The root cause is here.

[WhydoestheCCPencouragePutintogotowar?】

That is to say, Putin’s risky gamble on restoring the glory of the Great Russian Empire and national rejuvenation, and the CCP’s instigation, complicity, and commitment to economic support are the core factors for the invasion of Ukraine.

Why does the CCP encourage Putin to go to war? Before the war, from the perspective of the CCP, they believed that there could be at least 4 major advantages:

1. The war has led to the reorganization of the European structure, the focus of the United States will inevitably shift, and the pressure on the CCP will be greatly reduced;

2. The CCP gave up its neutrality to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the future, Russia will give up its neutrality to support the CCP’s invasion of Taiwan. The two sides can help each other in the face of sanctions.

3. After Russia was sanctioned, it had to deepen its economic dependence on the CCP, which led to the exchange of dominance in Sino-Russian relations.

4. In order to facilitate the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, the international community has to seek mediation from the CCP, which is tantamount to giving up part of the right to speak to the CCP.

Now that the war has been fought, we have seen that the CCP has really gained nothing but points 3 and 4. Now we see that indeed the United States and Europe have to communicate with the CCP and hope that the CCP will play the role of a mediator.

In the first two points, the CCP has achieved little, and it can even be said that it has the opposite effect. That is to say, the reorganization of the European structure has increased the encirclement of Russia, and the United States has not paid much attention. Instead, the CCP has to be distracted to deal with the endorsement of Russia. pressure on Europe.

The situation in the Taiwan Strait is even more unfavorable. Now that Japan and Australia have begun to increase their military investment, Taiwan is likely to receive clearer support from the United States. Now that heavyweights from both parties are competing to visit Taiwan, Pompeo even publicly called for recognition of Taiwan as a signal. .

Such a result will only significantly increase the cost of the CCP’s future invasion of Taiwan. The CCP’s hype about Ukraine today and Taiwan tomorrow is actually shooting itself in the foot.

Let’s not forget that Jin Canrong, the so-called “national teacher” of the CCP, once proposed a “weak plan” to ensure at least four enemies for the United States. The first one on the shortlist is Russia. This can not only divert the focus of the United States, but also help the United States and Europe weaken Russia and reduce the threat to itself. That’s why we say that the role played by the CCP is the second important factor that facilitated and tricked Putin into making up his mind to invade.

[U.S. NATO strategic mistakes ignite the fuse]

The third factor is the mistakes of the US strategy towards Russia.

Although NATO is essentially a defensive mechanism in terms of organizational attributes and conditions for membership, NATO continues to accept the participation of Eastern European countries, especially the three Baltic countries that directly border Russia. This kind of hostility, at least for the semi-democratized Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, is a serious distrust.

In addition, since the Obama era, the United States has set a wrong strategic direction, defining the US-Russia relationship as a confrontational relationship and the US-China relationship as a competitive relationship. This is going to be totally upside down to me. Although the Trump era has made a major revision to this, to ease the relationship between the United States and Russia, the United States has truly woken up and began to realize that the CCP is the biggest threat.

However, after Biden took office, he returned to Obama’s old path to a considerable extent, and regarded Putin as an enemy, which made Putin, who publicly claimed to be watching tigers fight in the Trump era, and finally moved towards mutual use with the CCP.

The consequences of this strategic mistake, in fact, many people of insight in the United States have realized it. For example, as early as 1998, the US Senate officially approved the first round of NATO’s eastward expansion, admitting Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic to NATO. George Kennan, who was hailed as the architect of the US’s successful containment of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, was 94 years old at the time. , but still quick-witted.

The leading Russia expert at the time told reporters that this was the beginning of a new Cold War, a sad mistake, and Russia would react badly.

Kennan also said it was ignorant of the Senate’s debate at the time to describe Russia as a country desperate to attack Western Europe.

Therefore, this is the third element of the topic we are discussing today, that is, the strategic error between the United States and NATO, which eventually became the fuse for Putin’s massive invasion of Ukraine. Biden must bear at least part of this responsibility.

The current US support for Ukraine is only a remedy. At the beginning, what the United States promised to Ukraine was a kind of “security guarantee”. The English word is security assurance, not “security guarantee”. The former does not require Senate approval and does not involve the use of U.S. military power. The latter is specially used in NATO countries and other situations, which requires the consent of the Senate, and includes the meaning that US military power can be used. The semantic difference between these two words was recognized by Russia and Ukraine at that time.

Okay, let’s briefly summarize at the end, the reason why Putin brazenly launched the war of aggression against Ukraine should be that Ukraine’s increasing centrifugal force has led to the fragmentation of the Great Russian Empire complex, as well as the CCP’s malicious instigation and economic underpinning, and finally add It is the result of the combined effect of these three factors, which are the wrong ignition of the fuse of the US NATO strategic base point.

But no matter how many objective reasons there are, strictly speaking, they are not reasons for Putin to launch a war of aggression. After all, if any country wants to pursue national rejuvenation, it should be based on the country, make every effort to govern, and focus on people’s livelihood. This is the only way to truly restore the glory of a great country. Blindly expanding outward and bullying the weak will inevitably lead to the result of being unhelpful and isolated, and not only will not get the desired glory, but only the shame of being referred to by thousands of people. In fact, it is extremely worth the loss.

We said that Ukraine used to be very pro-CCP, and it sent a lot of military technology to help the rise of the CCP. As a result, it was betrayed and stabbed in the back by the CCP. In fact, Putin is not like this. He fell into today’s field, although he made a mistake in his judgment, but is it not the result of accidentally making friends and being used as a gunman by the CCP?

Okay, that’s all for today, thank you for watching, see you next time.

(Editor in charge: Li Hong)

URL of this article: https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2022/03/08/a103367247.html