TAIPEI. As the Bali summit demonstrated, Taiwan is the most dangerous node in relations between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. In Beijing, Xi Jinping has recently obtained a third term to lead the Communist Party. In Taipei, the Press interviewed Ma Ying-jeou, former Taiwanese president who Xi met with him in 2015 in the only summit between the leaders of the two sides of the Strait. Elected with the Kuomintang, the nationalist party of Sun Yat-sen and Chiang Kai-shek, during his presidency he initiates dialogue with Beijing and signs several agreements. In 2014, the Sunflower Movement occupied parliament for 23 days to block a treaty on services. But he is still considered the deus ex machina of the KMT, preparing for the local elections on November 26 and the presidential elections of 2024, crucial for the future of relations on the Strait.
Seven years ago, he met Xi Jinping in Singapore to crown a period of strong dialogue. How then did the current tensions come about?
The Economist wrote in an editorial that the summit was mainland China’s largest concession on Taiwan’s sovereignty. I’ll tell you a detail. Before meeting, we negotiated to decide how to approach each other. In the end we didn’t call ourselves “president” but only “Mr. Xi” and “Mr. Ma”. At the summit we agreed to resolve the differences by peaceful means. In those years we signed 23 agreements. Relations were friendly and prosperous. Six years later, the Economist has always defined Taiwan as “the most dangerous place on earth” ».
However, many Taiwanese considered it an excessive rapprochement.
«France and Germany have fought several wars but have become the pillars of a united Europe, even though they do not share the same language. In 1993 I was on the plane when I read that they were working on the single currency: I was so moved that I came to tears. We belong to the same region and the same language. It is absurd to have such hostile relationships ».
Who is responsible for the current tensions?
“Avoiding war should be the number one goal for both sides. And to avoid war we must first dialogue. The hatred between DPP (Democratic Progressive Party, ed) and mainland China has become difficult to manage. Both are guilty, but the DPP’s responsibility is greater. In the current government there are still those who want to pursue independence but we are already de facto independent as the Republic of China and the Taiwanese are leading it. There is no point in continuing to pursue an independence that would mean war ».
However, Beijing continues to raise military pressure and has carried out unprecedented exercises after the visit of Nancy Pelosi.
“I did not expect Beijing to create six” blockade zones “or to launch guided missiles over Taiwan. Actions that have shown their intentions. Perhaps mainland China fears that Taiwan will move away permanently over time, but must understand that if it were to incorporate it by force it would pay a very high price. Now that he’s solidified his position, not if Xi wants to try to do it in his third term. For our part, we should try to re-establish a relationship and avoid confrontation ».
Beijing continues to believe that “one country, two systems” is the only model applicable to Taiwan in the future. And in the last “white paper” some of the guarantees of autonomy present in the previous two are missing. On what basis can we dialogue?
“The people of Taiwan have never accepted the ‘one country, two systems’ formula. After what happened in Hong Kong, many have drawn the conclusion that that model is dead. Taiwan is very different and I’m sure Xi understands that. The dialogue can resume on the “1992 consensus”, which recognizes the existence of a single China but with different interpretations, to protect a status quo with friendly relations but without incorporation. Taiwan must guarantee not to “leave” and mainland China not to use force ».
At the Chinese Communist Party Congress, however, Xi did not rule out the use of force. Do you think Beijing still wants dialogue?
“If Beijing wants to respect Taiwan’s way of life, as it has said, it must remember that that way of life is freedom and democracy. We do not exclude the possibility of unification, but through peaceful means and a democratic process ».
How?
“For example with a referendum. In Taiwan we have done so many. If mainland China wants unification, it must obtain the consent of the people of Taiwan ”.
Do you think the United States would intervene militarily in case of war?
“In Chinese it is said that” the spirit is ready, but the flesh is weak. ” Yes, in recent months Biden has repeated 4 times that he would intervene. But then the White House has always made it clear that it hasn’t changed its policy on China. Biden may want it, but circumstances may not allow it. ‘
Are the Taiwanese ready and willing to defend themselves?
“If you ask young people, I don’t think everyone is willing to fight. But that could change if there are no other possibilities. Taiwan must not be afraid of war and prepare but at the same time it must negotiate peace. I have 27 relatives living in mainland China, why should I fight a war against them? I think our military is prepared, but no matter how prepared you are: once the war breaks out, everyone suffers. Look at Ukraine. From Ukraine we should learn lessons not on how to make war, but on how to avoid it ».