Greece to vote for the first time “free” from creditors. The economy grows but the population still suffers

Greece to vote today for what promises to be only the first half of a match which will probably close in July. According to the polls, a clear winner may not come out of the polls, if a government coalition fails to be formed, the polls will return in a couple of months. The latest surveys attribute an advantage to the conservative New Democracy party led by the prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis which however does not seem to have the numbers for an absolute majority by placing itself between 31 and 38%. The leftist party is 4-7 points behind Syriza driven by Alexis Tsipras. Based on the new electoral system to be able to govern one of the two parties should reach at least 45%. The far-right movement Golden sunrise it was barred from the election after some of its leading members were convicted of criminal activity. One of voting unknowns it is to understand how the electorate of the extremist movement will orient itself. The winner of the election he will have three days to negotiate a coalition with other parties. If the attempt fails, the mandate to form a government passes to the second party and the process repeats itself. If this second attempt doesn’t succeed either, we will return to the polls with a slightly different electoral system that facilitates the formation of a majority.

Difficult, in general, to grasp the mood of the electorate. For the first time, the country goes to the polls “free” from external constraints and from the control of the entities they represent the country’s creditors. On the one hand the Greek economy showed rather decisive signs of recovery. Since the beginning of the year, the Athens Stock Exchange has been among the best in the world (+22%). The country could soon benefit from a new improvement of its own rating, which would favor the increase of foreign investments. Already today Greek ten-year government bonds pay a yield (3.9%) to Italian ones (4.2%) testifying to a perception of the risk linked to the Greek country which has greatly reduced. However, the social fabric still shows deep scars after the blood and tears treatment to which it has been subjected for years, to which are added the further inconveniences associated to an inflation that bites here as elsewhere, cutting down the purchasing power of employees and retirees. The real value of salaries fell by almost 10% only in recent years and compared to the peaks of 2010 paychecks are worth an average of 30% less. The pre-crisis values ​​have never been revised, neither as regards wages nor as regards the size of the economy which has grown a lot in the last two years. At + 5.9% in 2022 it should follow, according to estimates IMF, an increase in GDP of 2.6% this year and 1.5% next. The reduction in wages has favored a recovery of exports (having to pay less for work, Greek goods cost less) which was one of the decisive factors for the economy.