original title:[环时深度]How powerful is the Ji’an organization in peacekeeping in Kazakhstan
[环球时报记者 玉山禾 柳玉鹏 古丽孜依·白山 谷棣]The “mini-NATO”, “reduced version of the Warsaw Pact”, and “the core version of the Commonwealth of Independent States” are all the labels that the Collective Security Treaty Organization of the Commonwealth of Independent States (hereinafter referred to as “Jiang”) has been affixed. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Collective Security Treaty and the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the Ji’an Organization. No one thought that at the beginning of the new year, it would catch up with riots in Kazakhstan, a member state. According to the treaty, the organization would be the first when the situation in Kazakhstan was on the verge of getting out of control. Secondly sent peacekeeping troops to member states. This can make some Western countries who have speculated and criticized the Ji’an organization feel “unhappy”, worrying that “Russia is trying to retrieve the glory of the past through the organization”, and they have more capital to fight NATO. However, in the view of the member states of the Ji’an Organization, this regional organization is increasingly becoming a “firewall” that prevents external forces from launching a “color revolution” in the region, and is also a “fire extinguisher” for fighting terrorist forces and maintaining stability.
The mainstream public opinion in Kazakhstan says “the truth is seen in adversity”
On January 6, when the well-trained Russian advance detachment of the collective peacekeeping force of the Ji’an organization arrived in the Republic of Kazakhstan, it was only 8 hours before the organization announced the dispatch of peacekeeping forces to the central Asian power at the request of President Tokayev. . According to media reports from Russia, Kazakhstan and other countries, on January 7 alone, Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan sent 2,500 peacekeeping soldiers to Kazakhstan.
In addition to the Kazakh President’s televised speech thanking Ji’an for its support to Kazakhstan, according to a report on Channel 24 of Kazakhstan News, Abayev, the first deputy director of the President’s Office, said that the peacekeeping force sent by the Ji’an organization is not engaged in “cleaning up”. “The work of the mob is only responsible for the work of protection and guard. Nureshev, First Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, stated that the arrival of the Ji’an organization troops is temporary, “maybe within a few days or weeks, depending on the stability of Kazakhstan.” Sailov, a member of the lower house of the Kazakh parliament, said: “It was because of the terrorist attack that Kazakhstan only turned to Ji’an for help. We have always been members of the Ji’an. When the country is stabilized, the peacekeeping forces will retreat.” On the channel website In the comment area, a Kazakh netizen said: “Thank you for the peacekeeping forces of the brotherly countries!” “It is right to ask Ji’an to come over, otherwise it will be messy. We ordinary people only want stability.” “The Ji’an can only invade from outside. Only then can they come to help us, they must not mix our internal problems.” But some netizens said: “This is the end of our independent era!”
For some netizens’ incomprehension, Keshikenbayev, a scholar at the Kazakhstan President’s Institute for Strategic Studies, explained: “We have no alternative but to get to this point. The most important duty of the Ji’an organization is to protect us from external attacks. This is just Measures taken to restore the stability of Kazakhstan.” A scholar from the Kazakhstan-Eurasian Integration Institute said: “In the past, the Ji’an Organization was a platform for us to learn and exchange. The Ji’an Organization was established to protect each other. The member states are all in a strategic partnership and have a clear division of labor. No country can guarantee that this kind of disaster will not happen. If we owe them after this help, it is unfounded. We see the truth in adversity, we have many friends This is the result of our 30th anniversary of independence, and this is the result of our effective foreign policy.”
Kazakhstan really values the Ji’an organization that helps. RIA Novosti reported on the 7th that in 1992, Kazakhstan signed the Collective Security Treaty with Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Soon after, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Belarus also joined. However, Uzbekistan, Georgia and Afghanistan withdrew from the treaty in 1999. Later, Uzbekistan rejoined the treaty and then withdrew again. Currently, the treaty has only six parties: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. Professor Wu Dahui, deputy dean of the Russian Research Institute of Tsinghua University, told the Global Times reporter that although the CIS countries signed the Collective Security Treaty in 1992, they only officially became the Collective Security Treaty Organization (Jiang’an Organization) in May 2002. , That is, from a treaty to a regional security alliance mechanism with treaties as the core. This year happens to be the 20th anniversary of the establishment of this regional security organization. For the first time in 20 years, the Ji’an organization has sent a peacekeeping force to a member state in the form of a collective peacekeeping force, creating a precedent for sending troops to support the stability of a member state.
The Ji’an organization can be said to be the “core version of the Commonwealth of Independent States” created by Russia. As mentioned earlier, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan have also joined the Collective Security Treaty, but later withdrew due to various reasons. According to the observation of a reporter from the “Global Times”: Ji’an currently has five other member states, from the government to the people, and the feelings towards Russia are relatively friendly: Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have relatively poor economies, and a large number of nationals work in Russia to earn remittances, and From energy to security, it has always relied on Russia’s guarantee; Belarus is the country with the highest Russian penetration rate outside Russia, and some citizens even don’t speak the national language-Belarusian at all; Armenia has been analyzed by some international media as being “de-Russizing”. However, close ties with Russia are still an important guarantee for Armenia’s domestic stability; according to the Russian “Viewpoint”, Russia and Kazakhstan have a common border of more than 7,000 kilometers, millions of Russians live in the country, and many Russian joint ventures Operating in Kazakhstan, Russia also has important strategic facilities in the country, such as the Baikonur Cosmodrome or a uranium mine.
“I won’t intervene in everything”
Although Ji’an organizes summits on a regular basis, most of them are closed-door meetings and are not open to reporters. “Global Times” reporters have signed up for some academic conferences and press conferences through the organization’s official website. In conversations with Russian experts, they generally believed that the Ji’an organization is an important tool for Russia to maintain regional influence. When reporters asked how the Ji’an organization compares with NATO, they also admitted that its activity is low and emphasized that this is related to some member states not being at the forefront of geopolitical conflicts. A Tajik expert told reporters: “Because our national security is affected by the situation in Afghanistan and our country is unable to deal with it independently, joining the China Security Organization is a necessary choice for the tower.”
The Russian “Free Media” website commented that under the circumstances of the catastrophic development of the situation in Kazakhstan, Russia and its closest allies in the Ji’an organization acted in an unusually decisive, tough and swift manner in front of the world. But in fact, the Ji’an organization will not intervene in everything. In 2020, the Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict in Nakah, the Asian side has stated that based on the “Jiang An Treaty”, Russia can fulfill its obligation to protect the country when necessary, and “Armenians in the Naka region look forward to Russia’s help.” But Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that given that the military operations of the two sides are not carried out in Asia, the collective defense mechanism of the Ji’an organization is not applicable to the Naka conflict, and the Ji’an organization does not need to use its “leverage” for the time being. During the border armed conflict between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in the spring of 2021, Ji’an only acted as an “external observer” to mediate. In the large-scale protests in Belarus, the Ji’an organization did not take such actions. For Kazakhstan, only a few hours after the President of Kazakhstan sought help from Ji’an partners in the middle of the night on January 5, the Ji’an Security Committee held an emergency meeting and decided to send a peacekeeping force to Kazakhstan.
“For many years, the content of the Ji’an rapid reaction force training field exercises has come in handy in Kazakhstan.” Russian military expert Murahovsky commented on the operation of the Ji’an organization in this way. He believes that the peacekeeping force will obviously assume the task of protecting and defending strategically important facilities, such as Kazakhstan’s nuclear energy companies, space monitoring stations, Baikonur Cosmodrome, Sarisagan training ground, and important military installations. In addition, there are uranium mining companies in Kazakhstan. A terrorist attack or man-made disaster will not only harm the country, but also its neighbors.
After the “color revolution” occurred in Kyrgyzstan in 2010, Ji’an began to improve its own legal arrangements for safeguarding the security of member states in order to learn lessons, and gradually established a collective action mechanism. Ji’an’s peacekeeping force was announced in December 2010. The entry into Harvey’s peacekeeping mission was made in accordance with Articles 2 and 4 of the “Collective Security Treaty” and the relevant provisions of the “Agreement on Peacekeeping Operations.” . Article 2 of the “Collective Security Treaty” clearly states that if the security, stability, territorial integrity and national sovereignty of the member states of the Collective Security Organization are threatened, the member states should immediately negotiate, coordinate their positions, and adopt and implement collective measures. As Taisiya Marmontova, a professor at the Institute of Diplomacy of the National School of Administration of Kazakhstan, said: “The Ji’an Organization will come to help when we are in difficulties. If they encounter difficulties, we will also help. In other words, there is no Any form of compensation and payment.”
However, some Western media still question the legitimacy of the Ji’an organization to send peacekeeping forces to Kazakhstan this time. The US Radio Free Europe stated that “Russia’s decision to send troops to bypass the Duma was directly approved by President Putin”, and it exaggerated the anti-Russian sentiment in Kazakhstan that will rise due to the long-term presence of Russian troops. Wu Dahui believes that the collective action must be taken only when a certain member country encounters a threat. This is the logic of the collective action of the organization. Taking into account that Tajikistan has had a disharmonious relationship with the Taliban in Afghanistan, and the Tajikistan is also facing threats from terrorist organizations, the Ji’an organization has also taken corresponding actions on issues involving the situation in Afghanistan, such as large-scale military operations in the Atta border area. Perform military exercises, provide weapons and equipment to the tower and dispatch advisory groups in an overall form. In the future, if there is a riot in Kazakhstan among the member states, the Ji’an organization may once again send a collective peacekeeping force. However, the riots in Kazakhstan gave the Ji’an organization a huge shock—recognizing that the organization’s counter-terrorism center is not functioning very smoothly, so it is necessary to strengthen the exchanges among the member states under the framework of the counter-terrorism intelligence center, to discover the situation in time and prevent it in time. It is not to wait until some member states are in chaos before sending troops.
“Alliance Brand” created by Russia
Osser, the president of the French think tank Mediterranean Strategic Research Foundation, recently stated that Ji’an is a “mini NATO” and a “residual structure of the Warsaw Pact”, but compared to NATO with more than 70 years of experience and 30 member states. It is much weaker, especially Russia’s military influence cannot be compared with that of the United States. Speaking of this topic, Wu Dahui said that European and American countries have always regarded the Ji’an Organization as a “reduced version of the Warsaw Pact” and that its influence is limited to the CIS region.
In fact, the member states of the Ji’an Organization have links with NATO, such as joining NATO’s Partnership for Peace program. Some also have military cooperation with NATO members, including the United States. These factors have prevented Russia from using collective security organizations to counter NATO’s eastward expansion to some extent.
There are also some Western scholars who believe that “the Ji’an organization has the shadow of the Soviet Union.” Tertelli, a researcher at the Eurasian Group, a US think tank, believes that Ji’an is considered “a kind of checks and balances for Russia to face NATO.” The organization “needs to rely on the projection ability of the Russian army”, otherwise it would have little influence. The article on the “Foreign Policy” website worried that the long-term presence of Russian-dominated peacekeeping forces in Kazakhstan would have more influence on the foreign policy of this Central Asian country. Related reports quoted Jennifer Brick Multazashvili, an expert on Central and South Asian issues at the University of Pittsburgh, as saying that Kazakhstan’s invitation to the Ji’an peacekeeping force meant that the country gave up its balance of diversity among China, Russia, the United States, and the European Union. Foreign policy.
RIA Novosti reported on the 6th with the title “Jiang’s Baptism in Fighting in Kazakhstan”, saying that it took only about half a day from the passing of the relevant decision by the Jian’s Collective Security Council to the arrival of peacekeepers in Kazakhstan. This action showed that “Putin has won everyone again”, and people suddenly discovered that the Ji’an organization was used behind the amazing results of Russia, which was once regarded as the “stillborn” of post-Soviet foreign policy construction. The article believes that Russian leaders have been working hard to inject vitality into it in recent years, so that the organization can regain its vitality. The actions in Kazakhstan show that the Ji’an organization is undergoing a battle baptism under the attention of the whole world. Developments have shown that Kazakhstan is not facing the crisis alone, and collective security in the post-Soviet area is suddenly no longer a virtual concept, but a real existence.
Fyodor Lukyanov, director of the Academic Committee of the Russian “Valdai” International Debating Club, recently wrote an article that Ji’an is like an “alliance brand”. This action in Kazakhstan has given Moscow more opportunities to show it. At the same time, it further proves the value of the alliance. Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, believes that the first joint operation of Ji’an forces is a severe test of this organization, “If Russia succeeds, it will be a great achievement.”
In Wu Dahui’s view, the Ji’an Organization will become a platform for the Soviet Union’s space and military integration after Russia’s further integration, while the Eurasian Economic Union will be an important platform for the Soviet Union’s space economic integration after the integration. These two platforms can be said to be Russia. Two pillars to enhance the influence of post-Soviet space. He also emphasized that four of the member states of Ji’an and the SCO overlap-Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, and there is also close cooperation between the anti-terrorism centers of the two organizations. At present, no military exercise covering all member states has been conducted between the two organizations. In addition, the SCO is not a military alliance organization, and there is no provision similar to the Central Security Organization that can take concerted military actions outside.
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