Original title: Fight back!Kazakhstan suffers from aftermath, president says he can open fire on terrorists
In the past few days, the situation in Kazakhstan, a major oil and gas country, has changed rapidly. From the Kazakh government’s increase in oil prices triggering protests to the resignation of the government but the situation intensified, from the president’s request for the stationing of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (Group Security Organization) peacekeeping forces to announcing that order in all regions was basically restored, everything happened in less than three days.
According to the latest news, on the 7th, President Tokayev of Kazakhstan announced that the national terrorist threat would be set at the “extreme red” level and ordered that terrorists can be “fired” without warning.
Behind the start of the counterattack, 18 law enforcement officers were killed, hundreds of people were injured, more than 3,000 people were arrested, 40 billion tenge was lost… A series of figures showed the wounds caused by this country’s tribulation.
[Sit on abundant resources]
How did Kazakhstan be put on the fire step by step?
Although it has a population of only 19 million, Kazakhstan, as the world‘s largest landlocked country, has an area larger than the entire Western Europe. It is the “Eagle Country” of Central Asia, which is located on abundant resources.
In 2020, Kazakhstan ranks 11th in global oil reserves with 30 billion barrels of crude oil reserves; it is also the largest uranium supplier, providing more than 40% of the world‘s uranium, with uranium reserves reaching 1.69 million tons.
In fact, of the five Central Asian republics that became independent after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan is by far the richest. In the 30 years of independence, per capita GDP has grown by more than 12 times. Under the leadership of former President Nazarbayev, he emerged from the 2008 global financial crisis and has always been regarded as a leader in prosperity and stability among Central Asian countries.
During the nearly 30 years in power, Nazarbayev pursued an export-oriented economic policy, seized the opportunity to effectively develop the country’s huge oil reserves, and once put the country on the fast track of development. In 2019, the 79-year-old “political evergreen tree” announced his resignation and went behind the scenes. Tokayev, who was a “transitional prime minister” and speaker of the House of Lords and had better diplomatic work experience than internal affairs, became his successor.
[“The Lost Decade”]
Although natural wealth has helped Kazakhstan cultivate a group of super-rich and stable middle class, the “sequelae” of the country’s dependence on resource exports have gradually emerged. For example, the avalanche of the international oil market in 2014 directly dampened Kazakhstan’s economic growth.
In addition, with the rise of the new energy revolution, Kazakhstan’s economic transformation has become more urgent. A month ago, the international rating agency Standard & Poor’s evaluated the development of Kazakhstan’s oil industry. It believed that with the development of problems such as the rising cost of old oilfield exploitation, the heavy debt of oil companies, and the cooling of interest of multinational companies, the country’s energy industry risks gradually increased.
In 2020, affected by the impact of the new crown epidemic and the OPEC + production restriction agreement, Kazakhstan’s crude oil production from January to October was 61.2 million tons, a decrease of 6% from the same period of the previous year. This value rose to 85.7 million tons in 2021, but statistics show that 67.6 million tons of crude oil are used for export. Coupled with the huge difference in crude oil prices at home and abroad, the contradiction in Kazakhstan’s domestic energy supply has not been alleviated.
In places such as the western oil town of Zanauzin, where the riots broke out, energy wealth is seriously unevenly distributed, and dividends have not fallen to ordinary people. On the contrary, high prices, widening the gap between the rich and the poor, and the poverty rate rising to 14% in 2020 will gradually intensify social sentiment.
The lost ten years haunted the dusty Zanauzin. Because in 2011, on the 20th anniversary of Kazakhstan’s independence, similar riots broke out there, attacking police with swords and sticks, burning police cars, trying to seize weapons… Now the old things are repeating, and people can’t help but lament the “reincarnation of history”. Smell a familiar smell.
[Going out of control]
Since the price adjustment triggered public protests on January 1, the Kazakh government has taken a series of measures to deal with it. On the 5th, President Tokayev accepted the government’s resignation and presided over a meeting on the socio-economic situation, taking many measures to stabilize prices and lower oil prices. Later, Tokayev also demanded the protection of Kazakhstan’s diplomatic representative offices and foreign investment projects, and speeded up the reform and project construction in the natural gas field.
However, the demands of the demonstrators gradually evolved in the political direction, and the riots intensified. The Internet in Kazakhstan was cut off. Demonstrators in many places attacked the government and public institutions, whether it was office buildings, television stations or international airports. They all became targets; shop windows and ATMs were smashed, traffic lights were uprooted, and even weapon shops were also targeted. All looted.
Among the more than 10 law enforcement officers who died in the line of duty, 2 were beheaded by the mob; 10 medical staff and more than 350 law enforcement officers were injured.
The demonstration gradually deviated from the original direction and went out of control.
In this situation, President Tokayev declared a state of emergency throughout the country and stated that the incident constituted “damage to the integrity of the country.” He sought help from the Security Organization to “overcome the threat of terrorism” and ordered the establishment of an investigation team to investigate. Explain the cause of the riot.
[“Never give up Kazakhstan”]
From the 6th to the 7th, the peacekeeping forces worked together with the Kazakh military and powerful departments, and the situation quickly recovered.
It is worth noting that when President Tokayev announced that order in all regions of the country has basically returned to normal, he pointed out that Kazakhstan has classified the national terrorist threat as the “extreme red” level because “terrorists are using weapons to destroy the people. “Property”-before they are completely wiped out, anti-terrorism actions must be taken, and terrorists can be “fired” without warning.
The note from the Permanent Mission of Kazakhstan to the United Nations and the statement of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs all point to the same conclusion, that the country’s “recent situation is the result of instigation by external forces, attempting to use trained and organized armed formations to undermine national security by force. And territorial integrity”.
Belarusian President Lukashenko, who sent troops with the Ji’an organization, said more bluntly, “We must never give up Kazakhstan, otherwise it will become a gift to the United States and NATO, just like Ukraine.”
In the narratives of mainstream European and American media, such as CNN and Sky News, Russia’s dispatch of troops this time was a matter of “controversy”.
US State Department spokesman Price said in a statement that Washington is paying close attention to the report of the Ji’an organization’s deployment of peacekeeping forces in Kazakhstan, and that the “legal” of these forces being invited to Kazakhstan is “doubtful.” The United States “will pay close attention to human rights violations and the efforts or actions of foreign troops to seize Kazakhstan’s institutions.”
In this regard, Stanislav Zass, Secretary-General of Ji’an Organization, stated that the purpose of the peacekeeping force stationed in Kazakhstan is to “minimize and eliminate threats to national sovereignty”. The duration of the stationing period depends on changes in the situation. Zas said: “It is very unpleasant to hear and see the argument of’use of the situation’… Some people are beginning to deliberately misrepresent the invasion, or even collude with the’occupation’. Sorry, this is pure nonsense.”
Oil and gas, precious metals and other resources and geographical location have made Kazakhstan inevitably a must-see. From the perspective of history and reality, once the situation is chaotic, no matter which side will suffer. However, this is also destined to serve as a “pressure cooker” and endure the fate of being “fired” by geopolitical struggles.
[The test has just begun]
According to estimates, the total loss of the riot in Kazakhstan was 40 billion tenge (about 92 million US dollars). Reuters reported that Kazakhstan’s largest Tengiz oil field had a decline in production on the 6th. Its operator, Chevron, said that some contractors had damaged the railway to support the protests. On that day, oil prices rose by more than 1%.
In addition, as one of the world‘s largest cryptocurrency mining centers, the shutdown of the Internet across Kazakhstan has interrupted Bitcoin mining. Foreign media believe that the impact is “difficult to measure.”
The world‘s largest uranium producer, the Kazakhstan National Atomic Energy Industry Corporation, stated on the 6th that despite the turbulent situation, its operations are normal and production and exports will not be affected.
The tribulation in Kazakhstan is the result of multiple factors, both internal and external. In the short term, it may be difficult for the wound to heal.
How to avoid repeating the chaotic road of a country such as Ukraine, and to avoid turning the oil and gas resources that depend on it into the “Achilles’ heel”, Kazakhstan’s test has just begun. (Meng Xiangjun)
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