In response to increasingly diverse security challenges, Russia has been accelerating the construction of its nuclear forces in recent years, while implementing the “asymmetric response” strategy——
Russia actively builds a non-nuclear deterrent force
On May 12, Russia’s Southern Military Region received the first batch of S-350 “Warrior” air defense missile systems. This system is a new medium- and short-range air defense missile system developed by the Russian “Diamond-Antai” scientific research and production consortium for the army’s air defense forces. The maximum combat radius is 60 kilometers and the maximum firing height is 30 kilometers. Dvornikov, commander of the Southern Military Region, said that the equipment rate of the new equipment of the military region’s air defense forces has reached 90%.
For a long period of time after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia’s conventional military strength was unable to maintain its original level. It could only rely on nuclear deterrence as a pillar to maintain military security and its status as a major power, and even proposed a “preemptive” nuclear deterrence strategy. With changes in the international situation and increasingly diversified security threats, Russia is speeding up the building of its nuclear forces while paying more attention to the development of non-nuclear deterrent forces. The 2010 version of the Russian military doctrine listed non-nuclear high-precision strategic weapons as “one of the main external military dangers”; in 2014, Russia further proposed that it must have a “non-nuclear containment capability” against external military threats. Russia’s strategic deterrence has gradually transformed from its emphasis on nuclear power as one pillar to two pillars of nuclear deterrence and non-nuclear deterrence.
Due to the large gap between the strength of the United States and Russia, it is impossible for Russia to conduct a full arms race with it. Instead, it uses an “asymmetric response” strategy to strengthen its non-nuclear deterrence capabilities at a relatively small cost and provide support for the game between the great powers.
Control the cost of weapon platform construction and focus on the development of long-range precision strike capabilities
For a long time, there has been a dispute between two viewpoints in the Russian defense and military industry. One side advocates building more platforms such as ships, aircraft, and tanks; the other side requires more funds to be used to build high-precision weapons such as cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and new ammunition. With limited military expenditures, Russia’s national weapons program has clearly favored the latter view in recent years.
Renovate old platforms and speed up the installation of cruise missiles with long-range precision strike capabilities. Russian Defense Minister Shoigu revealed in early 2020 that the number of cruise missiles installed by the Russian military has increased 29 times in the past eight years. The Russian Aerospace Forces upgraded the airborne equipment of long-range bombers that had been in service for many years and installed new missiles such as X-101 cruise missiles. The Navy has extended the life of more than 10 old submarines and modified “caliber” launchers. Type 971 and Type 949A nuclear submarines are equipped with multifunctional launchers for ground, ship attack cruise missiles and air defense missiles. In addition, the Russian Navy is also upgrading qualified surface ships in service, turning them into “caliber” and other new missile launch platforms. At present, Russia is investing in the research and development of an improved “caliber”-M. It plans to increase its range to 4,500 kilometers and its warhead to 1 ton.
Compress the projects of large warships and build more low-cost small and medium-sized missile ships. Due to funding and other reasons, the 100,000-ton level 23000E heavy-duty nuclear-powered aircraft carrier plan has been repeatedly shelved. In September last year, the Navy contract signed by the Russian Ministry of Defense did not purchase the large ships that had been highly sought after, but instead purchased a number of guided missile frigates.
In the Syrian War, this type of light frigate successfully launched long-range cruise missiles, setting a successful example of “small boats hitting big bombs,” which can be called a maritime weapon in geopolitical games. In actual combat, the “caliber” missiles of all platforms were used for surprise attacks on enemy strongholds. Some fighter planes flew over the Atlantic Ocean to launch close to them to test their long-distance attack capability; some fighter planes were launched directly on the mainland to test the cruise missile’s long-range strike capability; some frigates suddenly fired from the Caspian Sea thousands of miles away during the routine training of multiple frigates; some were The submarine and the frigate joined forces. Submarine-launched, ship-borne, and air-borne cruise missiles have all launched their wars. They not only achieved the tactical objectives of the campaign, but also tested their non-nuclear deterrence capabilities.
Accelerate the research and development of hypersonic technology and consolidate the foundation of deterrence strategy
The focus of Russia’s development of non-nuclear deterrence is high-precision weapons, which are based on various types of hypersonic systems. The development of hypersonic weapons is a strategically disadvantaged Russia to break through the siege of the West and ensure effective deterrence. In recent years, Russia has made breakthroughs in some equipment bottlenecks, making hypersonic weapons more blooming and rapidly rising.
Nuclear is often jointly developed. Not only used in nuclear weapons, but also in a large number of non-nuclear conventional weapons. The “Pioneer” intercontinental strategic missile that has made the West quite daunting is actually a wave-riding hypersonic glide vehicle that can carry a split-guided nuclear warhead and fly at high altitude with a jumping ballistic at a speed of Mach 20 or more. The air-launched “dagger” missiles mainly attack ground and water targets, with a speed of up to Mach 10, and they can perform snake-like maneuvers at the end to evade, and their penetration capabilities are very outstanding. The sea-based “zircon” hypersonic cruise missile is mainly responsible for the task of attacking large-scale ship clusters and ground attack. It has a flying speed of Mach 9 and a range of more than 1,000 kilometers. It can be used for combat in offshore areas.
Covers various platforms. There are “Pioneer” strategic missiles and “Iskander” missiles based on land. The sea-based “Zircon” missile was tested five times on surface ships last year, and it is planned to conduct underwater tests on the “Severodvinsk” nuclear submarine this year. The R-37M air-to-air missile used for air combat can reach a speed of Mach 6. It is currently equipped on Su-35, MiG-31, Su-57 and other fighters. The X-32 missile equipped with the Su-30SM fighter has a speed of Mach 5 and is mainly used for ship and ground attacks.
Installation and deployment are rapid. The installation of new equipment generally requires a long period such as development-finalization test-mass production-use training-departmental queue installation-actual installation test-combat duty. The two hypersonic weapons announced in Putin’s State of the Union address in March 2018 have both become combat effective in a short period of time. The “Pioneer” missile was equipped with troops and put into combat duty in December 2019. Several months before the news was disclosed, the “Dagger” missile had been equipped with an experimental combat duty in the Southern Military Region. In 2020, the Russian Air Force and the Northern Fleet will each have an aviation unit equipped with “Dagger” missiles, and it is planned to complete the replacement by 2024.
Weave dense air and space defense nets to strengthen deterrence and control of the enemy
Air and space defense is related to national security, and it is also a prerequisite and guarantee for maintaining nuclear and non-nuclear deterrence. Russia promulgated the “Air and Space Defense Concept” in April 2006. In August 2015, it merged the Air Force and the Air and Space Defense Force to form the Air and Space Force, forming an integrated air and space combat system. In recent years, Russia has played a set of combined punches to strengthen national air and space defenses.
Promote the deep integration of air defense and anti-missile systems, and enhance the ability to resist ballistic and cruise missiles. The original air defense force has been transformed and enriched so that it can effectively intercept various targets at near, medium, and long range, low, medium, and high altitudes. The newly developed “Prometheus” S-500 anti-missile system has a range of 50% longer than that of the S-400, and has more than doubled the intercept height. It has the ability to shoot down low-orbit satellites, making air-space integrated defense a reality.
Establish two detection networks, ground and space-based, to enhance long-range early warning capabilities. On the basis of completing the construction of a missile attack detection network along the periphery of the country, the Russian military completed the test of a new generation of missile early warning system in early 2021, and the early warning radius was increased to 6000 kilometers. In addition, Russia has also introduced a new “Yah Roma” radar station construction plan, which can detect across oceans and automatically mark targets for launch. The construction of the space monitoring system is accelerated. Two optical laser stations have been built in Crimea and Altai not long ago. Three special “tundra” early warning satellites have been launched into orbit. The “dome” space infrared early warning system on board can monitor the world in real time. Launch of ballistic missiles.
Combine key defense and mobile defense to expand the coverage of air and space defense. Russia has a vast territory, and the contradiction between the huge demand for aerospace defense and limited resources is very prominent. While concentrating its efforts to ensure the safety of the capital and theaters, Russia has gradually strengthened its mobile air defense and anti-missile forces in recent years. In 2017, the mobile air defense missile brigade was formed; in October 2018, the “non-strategic anti-missile defense” plan was introduced; in July 2019, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that each air defense group must be equipped with a regiment-level mobile air defense reserve to strive for Air and space defense forces can quickly deploy throughout the territory.
Seize the opportunity of new technology development and application, and constantly update deterrence methods
The development of science and technology represented by artificial intelligence has brought huge opportunities and challenges to social development, especially the military field. The research and development of weapons and equipment with artificial intelligence elements and other future weapons based on new physical principles have become Russia’s top priority in seizing the first opportunity of its deterrence strategy and updating its means of deterrence and control.
During the Syrian War, Russian-made drones and the “Uranus” series of minesweeping vehicles were put on the battlefield and achieved good tactical effects. From 2013 to 2019, Russia has newly formed 38 UAV units, equipped with more than 2,000 modern UAVs, and the use of unmanned combat equipment has gradually shifted from scattered and sporadic to large-scale and intensive. In April 2021, the long-endurance UAV of the “Orion” with similar functions as the U.S. “Predator” was delivered to the unit.
Laser weapons are listed as a major project that “will determine the combat effectiveness of the Russian army in the 21st century.” The “Pelethwaite” laser system was put into combat duty in the 5 missile regiments of the Strategic Rocket Force in December 2019. Its application range is extremely wide. It can intercept aerial targets, blind enemy reconnaissance equipment, and implement anti-missile and anti-satellite systems. defense. The airborne laser weapon program is also accelerating. In April 2021, the US Center for Strategic and International Studies issued the “Space Threat Assessment” report, stating that the airborne laser system deployed by the Russian military can be used to counter space-based and space-based reconnaissance equipment and “may have anti-satellite capabilities.”
The development of artificial intelligence requires a deep foundation of basic research. In September 2018, Russia announced the “Science” national development project, and put forward goals such as “key scientific fields entering the world‘s top five”, “attracting domestic and foreign scientists”, “research investment growth exceeding GDP growth” and other goals, and planning to establish 15 world-class science education Center, 14 special technology centers, by 2024 at least 250 Russian companies to participate in new technology research and development. Whether these measures can be truly implemented will determine the future of Russia’s arms development and innovation.
(Author’s unit: Center for International Studies, National University of Defense Technology)
Xu Yitian
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